Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
No idea what happened but I know for sure that Frank did it
Former NavalNews & USNINews writer, Track Fuser, R-1/P-1 Budget Reader. For defense-related stuff Site: https://defensearchives.com/news Map site: https://www.vermln.com
6,410 followers 215 following 2,611 posts
view profile on Bluesky Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Every fucking time man. I genuinely believe that they plan to break so much shit this time that the following 8 years will just be spent undoing half the shit they did. When does the US ever get to move forward. Every Dem presidency is just undoing the damage of the prior Rep Admin.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
NZXT H7 FLOW. One of the best cases I have ever used, very quiet, one of the best dust protection (filters) I have used, tons of space and very good at hiding cables.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The 3070 inside going off like a C4 after I search for the word "Littoral" in my Zotero library
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
7 zillion peedfs in the obelisk underneath my table. He is resting for now before migrating to his winter resting place.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
I absolutely do not understand the people who stick around for defense discussions (or really any discussions there). Half the accounts are dead and the other half of your active followers are going "@grok is this true?" The only use it has is searching for materials on long inactive accounts.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
My throat and nose acting up immediately once autumn weather starts hitting.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Immersion broken, you telling me this account isn't run by Philip Seymour?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Trialing rust is also not a very very big issue. Crews clean up after these ships immediately once they go in for a short maintenance period. This is what DDG 55 looked like after being at sea for 215 days (4 years ago) due to covid. Sailors cleaned her up in 2 days back to shiny new.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Very messy situation, but the solution can't be that you can't strike any PLARF brigade/c3 stuff because they might have a nuclear role which means you are directly attacking NC stuff either π€·ββοΈ
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
They have created this situation π€·ββοΈ. Soft kill measures against Chinese AEHF equivalent or DSP/SBIRS equivalent is very different from goung after Yaogan 30/31 (Chinese NOSS). But at the lower levels, some of these networks have become intermingled with regional NC3 stuff.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The US doesn't dual base/interchange nuclear and non-nuclear weapons. The PLARF has completely mixed some brigades to have dual roles with swapable warheads. But these are the same missiles that will be used to strike US bases and forces in conventional strikes, so they can't be left alone either.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Isn't the whole point of our strategic warfighting policy to effectively manage escalation in the face of risks and wield it to benefit our interests? If you avoid the whole thing altogether and you enemy doesn't, where does that put you?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
This is why I don't really understand why people like Shugart obsess so much over HAS. Why should DAF bankrupt itself for something like that? You don't think they'll be effective, you know it is impractical but you still want it because the PLAAF has done something similar?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Instead of building 300 HAS at $6M per unit ($1.8B), you can build a similar number of ESAPs at $500k to $1M per Shelters? Both are not going to survive penetrators and they both render DPICMs equally as ineffective.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
I really hate how the whole conversation has been shaped in a way that people think the only way to survive and make things hard for the PLA is to sink $6M a pop into shelters that will die anyway if they start firing CJ-10s directly at them.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Trying to survive is escalatory because it increases the chances of you successfully fighting back π€·ββοΈ
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Escalation has sort of become a thing in western views that must be avoided at all costs. Its just a part of conflict, we should manage it, but it is neither good nor bad. But like if you are always working from a position that all escalation of any kind is bad, how do you anything but capitulation?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
People also obsess over HAS too much. If a missile is using pretty decent guidance any direct impact on HAS will kill the HAS and whatever it has. So why build a HAS? The same logic applies to any shelter (you can't tell what's inside anyway).
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
4) your fires have been diluted 5) you must recalculate and retask targeting orders 6) you also now need coordination amongst many units
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
>have 80 aircraft in one base >easy to target >distribute 80 aircraft across 30 bases 1) takes longer to find 2) now you must strike 30 different targets 3) deception and concealment make it unsure that what you might be striking is the aircraft you want (could be empty HAS/shelters)
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Apparently it is highly escalatory to target your enemy's intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance and command and control capabilities during a major war?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Total and complete embargo. They need to be globally isolated, sanctioned, and brought to their knees. They need to pay for this.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Yeah sanctions are the minimum they deserve. www.jpost.com/middle-east/...
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Sources: Scud Ballistic Missiles and Launch Systems 1955-2005. Ballistic Missiles in the Third World. International Defense Review. CSIS's Lessons of Modern War- Volume II: The Iran-Iraq War. CIA Report from 1986 on the Iran - Iraq War. Afghanistan: The Bear Trap.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Been reading up lately and every now and then I stare at images of Scuds open on my PC from across the dining room like this. Like damn, this thing is literally the genesis of all our pains now.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The 1980-1991 data without totals and the 2022-2025 data with totals.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
If not, Ukraine should say no and continue thug it out rather than wait for this shit to happen again in 8 years. They should also not count on any Dem leadership to do any better, they were failed with a Dem trifecta, they should assume this is the new normal.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The only way any of this is acceptable is automatic ascension to NATO membership for Ukraine and the deployment of at minimum a division of NATO soldiers and Russian assets worth half a trillion for rebuilding Ukraine and Russia paying war reparations in another half a trillion to Ukraine.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
There's no basis for why they'd stop now, they have suffered massive losses but they continue to endure and they largely have the right tools now (UMPKs, Shaheds, UASs.) The only thing Russia leadership understands is force, we must not stop landing warheads on Russian solider foreheads.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Russia took Crimea, that should have been enough, then they got a buffer in Luhansk and Donetsk (something they claim they didn't want and were forced into getting because of people like Girkin), then they invaded the entirety of Ukraine for full conquest. So surely they'll stop this time?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
David Kilcullen mentioned lets gooo
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
They have been taking 50% casualties since their 2022 assaults on Pavlivka (south of Vuhledar)
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
WMD high command finding out why the 92nd was called "one of the best and hardened units in the AFU" prior to the war after they see the same tanks they sent to take Kharkiv reappear with AFU markings and firing on Russian positions in less than 8 hours
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
155th and 44th Marine Regiments would like a word (they are both on their 8th reconstitution effort)
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
US Army meanwhile: uh 1st Armored, 1st Cav, and 3rd Infantry wouldn't be enough to stop this unit Yeah okay
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
>hyped up >show up to Kharkiv >92nd Mech and 4th Tank Brigade renders you combat ineffective >go a little South and attempt an encirclement of the city >81st and 25th Airborne kick your shit in >retreat >1st Special Purpose brigade steals your tanks
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Soviet Military Space Capabilities and Intentions in Space - CIA intel report from August 1980. www.cia.gov/readingroom/...
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
They still heavily rely on a non-standardized assortment of OTH (which are themselves vulnerable to disruptions, false alarms and dep trajectories) and other radars for better confirmations.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
They do have coverage but it is by no means resilient like the US'. The new EKS sats largely reuse the sameish Vidicon tube technology developed by Soviet scientist in the late 80s at NIIT. They were trying to get new sfuff but 2014 happened which set thrm back: www.thespacereview.com/article/4121/1
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Man, the Soviet MIDAS/DSP equivalent was not having a great time
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
America's Space Sentinels
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
>detecting air to air collisions from Geostationary orbit.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
UFOlogist: That was definitely a UFO NRO after nearly obliterating a key early warning satellite with their failed sat launch: π«
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Decided to try some of the highly caffeinated energy drinks the kids enjoy these days and this shit is ass. How do people enjoy this shit over coffee?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
>kick UN missions out >invite Russian PMCs >they just keep killing civilians >IS groups keep advancing and taking town after town
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
The rate of major attacks by IS-aligned groups seem to be going through the roof in the Sahel region. At this rate, the entire Sahel might fall to IS-Sahel groups, but hey at least Ibrahim Toure looks cool or something and they kicked the imperialist Germans and UN missions out.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
I have been going through all Atlas slides and finding truly wild gems. Like look at this absolute unit.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Sir, your activity has been deemed to meet the threshold of "scaring the hoes".
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Alright what is it this time.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
These are just the sections where I must animate these things to show what I am talking about.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
All of these (and like 50 more) will be combined in a long video (about 30ish mins long).
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
My intentions with these has been to try and simplify these concepts with my illustrations.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
A zillion more of these are waiting to be made.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
I haven't used AE in like 1.5 years so a part of me is surprised I even remember how to do anything on the app.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Finally working on animating the storyboard. On this slide we got Hydrogen bomb vs coughing baby.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The USAF programs have many different systems being worked. The price tags and capabilities range from $1-2.5M to $25-30M. The USMC themselves have XQ-58A and MQ-9s which are very different in terms of capabilities. This shows the programs that form the USAF CCA.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The USAF is still buying enough F-47s to replace F-22s 1:1 and the same number of F-35s it set out to buy at the start of the program.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The USAF nor the USN have never said these drones replaces manned platforms so he is arguing a position that doesn't exist within the DoD. MQ-25 frees up more F/A-18s to do non-tanker stuff. CCA complements existing fighters that would die in these new environments.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Lastly the author has no technical criticisms of these platforms or plans. Mostly handwavy "it won't work, it doesn't work"
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
This concept has existed since the 1970s. Recon drone helped survey AA and SAM positions for recon units during the Vietnam war. Drones played a role in SEAD/DEAD for Wild Weasel units in Iraq 1991. Drones played a part in almost every war the US was involved in since the Vietnam War.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The goal of CCA isnt to develop an F-35 without a human, it is intended to develop a multitude of different aircraft at different price ranges with varying capabilities that do a broad range of missions in support of manned platforms.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
And yet the KC-46 program is billions overbudget and constantly full of issues with its remote view system while the MQ-25 has autonomously refueled almost every single USN aircraft without any issues, not to mention it also takes off from aircraft carriers.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The comparisons between the KC-46 and MQ-25 are apples to watermelons. The MQ-25 costs what it does today because less than 10 of them are being built while the KC-46 is based on a commercial airframe that has close to 1,500 airframes built.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
A CCA needn't carry 22k lbs if it is main role is SEAD or DEAD or AAM. You don't put an APG-81 on every CCA. You don't power every CCA with an F-119/F-135.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The big problem here is that the author can't envision CCA as being anything other than an fighter without a human.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The author also handwaves away the fact that it is congress that holds the power of the purse and that even if Congress funded the DoD to a 5% spending (of GDP) the USAF/USN would still ask for these platforms.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
As such the pursuit of drones isn't one of asymmetric response but rather the realization of the threats posed by modern IAMD. This is the same reason the Chinese also want their own CCAs, because they have to face our own IAMD.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
This piece is actually bad, the writer doesn't understand the CONOPs of current CCAs and the origins of drones. The role of the drones the USN/USAF are pursuing isnt to replace the human but complement the human in otherwise dangerous environments.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Been cooking this stuff up. More stuff over on the patreon: www.patreon.com/posts/135167...
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
As if the leaks from the Tea app literally a week ago isn't a warning sign for what is to come.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
I don't trust any online platform with my PII. The EU is now giving excuses for companies to blanket harvest this data while saying they are actually safeguarding our privacy. What the fuck kind of timeline is this?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
Blanket blocks took place last night for me (in the EU) on conflict-related content on Twitter/Reddit that is marked as graphic. The only solution? Send Reddit or Twitter my PII. I don't think I will.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Funding was allocated by the Senate in FY25 NDAA to restart the line however the plan is still to terminate production. Since 2023 buys have decreased and FY25 buys were only 6 missiles.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
One of the treatler apps in our country recently lost an appeal on trying to make sure the driver/delivery people weren't classified as "employees" but instead as "contractors" which meant they wouldn't be subject to basic labor regulations. Fuck these apps.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Idk man, this timeline is fucked up. You had the SecDef implying anyone who wasn't a straight white male didn't have "warrior ethos" and the DoD fighting over this in court trying to get LGBTQ members kicked out of the military. With this and the ICE shit, the DoD has definitely hit a new low.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
In truth, everyone worth shit should have started jumping ship when Adm. Lisa Franchetti, Adm. Linda Fagan, and Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr were booted because of nakedly racist and sexist reasons.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Congress seems aware of the problem but the Navy leadership does seem entirely supportive of this destruction.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
And now the scuttlebutt is that Navy is telling people to download their own data from the data center (Millington Data Center) where the info is stored because the contract for that data center is also not being renewed. So if your data is lost it might be gone forever.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
People within the Navy supported this cut because they believe the Navy can do this work on its own. But the contract was made with this company precisely because the Navy's own internal effort has failed to deliver for close to 10 years. federalnewsnetwork.com/navy/2025/06...
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
So DOGE with the support of the Navy canceled the contract for a company that was trying to backup and move the US Navy's pay, personnel, and promotion data to a more secure format so it couldn't be lost if something happened to main center where the data is stored. www.military.com/daily-news/2...
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
But given how under equipped activists and prepared broke into Leonardo's Edinburgh. A more prepared team could have rendered that facility (it makes Infrared and Radar Countermeasure systems as well radar subsystems) useless.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Their ops against us in NATO countries have been very good. www.bellingcat.com/news/2021/04...
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
A number of break-ins at major UK defense industry facilities where Pro-Palestine groups did minor damage should be a major wake up call for that nation. If Russian sabotage teams get that opportunity they won't be doing superficial damage.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
I'm sorry but like these guys have straight up blown up ammo dumps in EE and feel proud about it. They constantly try to fuck with all our infrastructure and if you dont recognize that then you are an idiot.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Like what. "Waa this extremely advanced aircraft needs more base security to ensure it isnt compromised!" Aren't Russia's near constant sabotage ops not fucking enough for us?
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social)
I'm not sure what the deal is with Western/Southern Europe when it comes to critical infrastructure protection. Like many European nations have complained that getting F-35 means that people building these new bases have to be at minimum background checked and the equipment not be China sourced.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
Yes, so the US ought to be buying a lot more than 500 interceptors but the leadership doesnt seem to care π€·ββοΈ
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The piece says that two batteries (with a theoretical max load out of 192 THAAD missiles) were involved in the defense of Israel. The "usage" footage from Lewis and Sam which indicated 39 missiles only covered less than a week of footage.
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
It is believed that the average Navy carries about 10-12 interceptors meant for ballistic missile defense. So yes the 80 missiles here is within the capabilities of these vessels. For THAAD, a typical battery has 48 ready missiles and 48 reloads (96~ per battery then).
Zach πΊπ¦ (@thrustwr.bsky.social) reply parent
The US Navy normally has 7-8 destroyers forward deployed to Spain that are able to carry 90-96 missiles and do Ballistic Missile Defense. Not all of the 90-96 cells on destroyer are for missiles that do Ballistic missile defense. You also have strike, anti submarine and anti-air missiles loaded.