This also looks like SMC-type aurora. Very featureless and diffuse. We’ll have to see what happens. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
📷”The Aurora Guy” 🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student at the University of Alaska Fairbanks 📍North Pole, Alaska 🫂Participatory science, science comm. 🌀 Professional aurora chaser 👨💻Views my own
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This also looks like SMC-type aurora. Very featureless and diffuse. We’ll have to see what happens. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Well, it’s barely out in Maine right now… pretty low glow on the northern horizon. We may see a substorm push this higher with some tall pillars, so let’s keep an eye on it. Anyone below the 45th parallel is going to have a hard time seeing much at the present moment.
Hp 30 bumping around the 4-5 range for the last few hours… nothing crazy… The storm is waning, but current Bt/Bz combo should be enough to kick up some northern-horizon displays for the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada.
Queenstown, New Zealand experienced amazing BLUE aurora right before sunrise as the south Bz fueled a reintensification of this geomagnetic storm. theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams
There is a nice glow of aurora in Lebedevka, Russia now immedaitely after sunset. This is the same geomagnetic latitude as St. Louis, Missouri, for reference. theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams
I'm not sure how much there will be left in the tank by the time night falls over the U.S., but I suspect that the U.S.-Canadian border states will at least have a show on the northern horizon due to lingering activity.
Aurora webcam in Irbit, Russia is showing nice aurora and tall rays. This is roughly the same geomagnetic latitude as the Twin Cities in Minnesota. It's nice to see things intensify now that B_z has turned south. theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams
Wow, things have really intensified in Russia now that B_z has turned south. Europe should be in for a good show soon once it gets dark. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Webcams are starting to pick up some mid-latitude actiity in Russia already: go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
The OVATION model has now cracked 100 GW for the first time during this event. Bz is currently -6 and Bt is 21 nT. Central Europe may get some good views of aurora to the north, especially during substorms. #heliophysics
There is also an argument that there is another structure starting around 7:20 UTC when we had the Bz south fakeout... unsure, but I hope the NWS flux rope is real.
It's possible we are seeing a NWS flux rope since we are now in the CME core. In this situation Bz rotates from North to South while By stays West (negative). Flux ropes can last 12-24 hours, so it is possible we see the Bz turn south here and stay down for some time.
We have finally encountered the CME flux rope which has a strong Bz north component. Bz north conditions may last for the rest of the day as the core eventually weakens and we calm down to quiet solar wind conditions. This has been a frustrating event!
Some aurora high in the sky currently on this webcam in Cedarville, Michigan go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Use a smartphone to see more color than your eyes. The aurora may intensify during substorm times and look bright and colorful to the eye.
The auroral ovals are expanded now due to an ongoing geomagnetic storm. If you live in the northern tier of the U.S., head out and look north after dark to catch a glimpse of the northern lights. #heliophysics
The YouTube feed is a bit lower quality but is exposed better to see the green-purple gradient in the northern horizon band. It looks decent for now may grow stronger.
Healthy aurora glow starting now in Maine. Check out the cam! go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
We just need the activity to last a few more hours until sunset here in the U.S. I am confident we will have some aurora right after sunset, though. The Earth's magnetosphere is running hot and even with a Bz north core would take some time to cool down.
Here is a current webcam shot from Lebedevka, Russia. Red aurora glow is moving higher in the sky. This is the same geomagnetic latitude as St. Louis, Missouri! theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams
Aurora is building over St. Petersburg in Russia. This is around the same geomagnetic latitude as the Twin Cities in Minnesota, USA. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Beautiful red aurora now appearing in Greenland right after sunset. Looks strong! go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Bz has been trending south over the last 15 minutes or so... hopefully, this continues. If this Bz can sustain negative <-10 nT, we could charge up substorms and see some great aurora at mid-latitudes tonight over the U.S. Monitor webcams for real-time activity: go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Wow what an impressive shock! B_t is approaching 30 nT. This is a strong CME at least in terms of magnetic field strength. Check webcams and head out to your spots. Aurora may intensify shortly after the shock reaches our magnetosphere. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
THE CME HAS ARRIVED! The shock now needs to propagate to Earth, but we may see intensification of the auroral ovals in around an hour. Webcams and GOES mag will be your best friends, now. Monitor them for real-time activity: go.theauroraguy.com/goesmag go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
We continue to see protons in ACE EPAM rise. We may see the CME arrive soon, probably in the next few hours or sooner! Keep an eye out for the shock signature in solar wind L1 data. More info: go.theauroraguy.com/aurorapredic...
Tight spread indicates a more confident result in the arrival time. Every ensemble run predicts B_t at least 30 nT, so if things align, we should be in for a nice geomagnetic storm today. Let’s wait and see…
NASA M2M ENLIL ensemble run shows every impact sometime between 18 UT today - 0 UT Tuesday, or in-line with current estimates from NOAA SWPC.
Happy 166th anniversary of the Carrington Event which took place over September 1-2, 1859. It was one of the largest geomagnetic storms ever recorded. In some respects, there have been stronger storms, but the Carrington event is certainly infamous in the space weather world.
We are beginning to see the accelerated protons from the CME shock at Earth. The actual shockfront of the CME may hit today based on these increasing low-energy particles. Stay tuned!
If you see the aurora, feel free to tag me, and make sure to report in on aurorasaurus.org ! Aurorasaurus is a platform where you can report aurora sightings in real-time, helping other aurora chasers and also scientists reconstruct the auroral oval during the storm.
City parks, golf courses, or wildlife refuges are nice places to get away from immediate light pollution from lamps or buildings. Make sure you have permission to be on the property, though, especially at night when people are more wary of strangers in the dark.
Light pollution maps like lightpollutionmap.info are great for finding good areas for aurora viewing. I try and aim for a Bortle <6, but you can see the northern lights from in heavily light-polluted areas during substorms. Just find an open area away from streetlights.
If you aren't sure if what you're looking at is actually aurora, take out your smartphone and use the integrated night mode to snap a shot. If the photo has a definite green tinge and geomagnetic activity is elevated, you've likely "seen" the aurora!
The aurora will look different on your camera vs to your eye. I have a blog post discussing the nuances of what the aurora "looks like" here: theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/w...
Also, check out my blog article on timelapse photography: theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/a...
If you are new to aurora photography, also check out my e-book: "A Complete Guide to Aurora Photography." Buy it here: theauroraguy.com/products/e-b...
Webcams are an excellent way to monitor the aurora without worrying about what space weather data to watch. I have a VERY comprehensive list of webcams over on my website. There are dozens of cameras in the United States and Canada: go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
For more context on substorms, read my blog article on the October 2024 storm. You can also use the Glendale App which collects data from ground magnetometers to monitor substorm activity. go.theauroraguy.com/october2024s...
You can monitor auroral substorms and their phases (growth, expansion, and recovery) by looking at the GOES magnetometer readings. I have a blog post describing how to do this: go.theauroraguy.com/goesmag
From mid-latitudes, a substorm may look like pillars sprouting from the horizon with deep reds becoming visible high in the sky. When the aurora gets tall like this, it can be seen from hundreds of miles away. www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iBw...
Substorms are really what will drive auroral activity at mid-latitudes, though. South B_z can initiate a substorm "growth phase," building energy in Earth's magnetic field. Suddenly, this energy may release into the aurora during the "expansion phase." go.theauroraguy.com/substorm
Every CME is created different, so there is no way to tell what will happen without seeing solar wind data at L1, but it's possible if the CME is as strong as predicted that we will see the auroral ovals expand to lower latitudes 1-2 hours after hitting our upstream satellites.
Depending on the speed of the CME, there will be 30-60 minutes before it actually hits Earth's magnetosphere and starts shaking things up. If you see CME impact and you have dark and clear skies, you will have some time to get dressed and prepare yourself for the chase.
How will we know when the CME arrives? This is all explained on my website and e-book, but basically, we look for a sudden spike in magnetic field (solar wind B_t) to indicate the CME has hit our upstream satellites at Lagrange Point L1, 1 million miles from Earth.
I don't put all my eggs in one model "basket" but instead try to look at them in aggregate taking into account edge cases like HUXt. It is likely we will see a CME arrive on Spetember 1 around 17 UT, but there is a possibility it comes much later. We will have to be patient.
The HUXt model is bucking the trend. It thinks our CME will get here on September 2 a full day LATER than everyone else thinks. Maybe the model will get an update with new data, but this is interesting. You can read more about HUxt on my website: go.theauroraguy.com/huxtmodel
Science works in universal time (UT), but most of my audience lives in the U.S. or Canada. Accounting for the +/- 7 hr uncertainty in the arrival time of the CME, here are the time zone conversions for many areas around the world.
The CME scoreboard on NASA's CCMC website allows different agencies to post their models. You can see all the different arrival time predictions here. They mostly agree on a CME arrival sometime around 17 UT on September 1. A G2-G3 geomagnetic storm is possible.
NOAA SWPC released a model predicting the combined fast+slow CME to arrive around 20 UT on September 1. Since the uncertainty of CME models is around +/- 7 hr, this three hour difference isn't a big deal. SWPC also posted a G2-G3 geomagnetic storm watch for September 1-2.
NASA's M2M office quickly released a model and later refined it to include another smaller eruption in front of the main CME. These two CMEs may combine and arrive sometime around 17 UT on September 1. This is around the same time as NOAA SWPC's model.
A few different agencies have space weather forecasters who measure and track these CMEs and generate models with predicted arrival times at Earth. Namely, NASA's Moon to Mars office and the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
A halo CME basically has a 100% chance of hitting us, but the question then is "When?" Scientists measure how far the CME travels in the field of view of the coronagraph to build a profile of the CME's speed and directionality. Then, they feed this information into models.
A coronagraph instrument onboard a spacecraft works by creating an artificial solar eclipse so we can see ejections of solar wind coming off the Sun. If the cloud is squarely aimed at us, the CME will expand around the instrument like a halo. The M2.7 flare produced a halo CME.
A flare is easy to see because it's like a camera flash going off on the Sun, especially when imaged in the extreme ultraviolet wavelengths. CMEs are comparably much more faint, so we use special instruments called "coronagraphs" to see these explosions coming off the Sun.
Flare size is measured from A (weakest) to X (strongest), so this M2.7 was a decent-sized flare, but not crazy. Stronger flares are more likely to cause CMEs, but flare size =/= CME size. In this case, the flare caused a nice CME to lift off the Sun aimed at us.
A solar flare is a burst of electromagnetic energy (light) that can destabilize the Sun's atmosphere, releasing a big cloud of material and magnetic field into space. These can be directed away or towards Earth. When they are aimed at us, that's when we start paying attention!
A CME is a big blast of solar material kind of like a "Sun sneeze" that can cause geomagnetic storms at Earth. I have a glossary of terms in my free "A Beginner's Guide to Aurora Chasing" e-book which is available by signing up to my email list: go.theauroraguy.com/ebook
First, let me explain what is happening. An M2.7 flare from a magnetically-active region called "AR 4199" launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) that is heading towards Earth. It is forecasted to arrive around Sep 1 at 20 UT according to official modeling by NOAA SWPC.
Before we begin, a quick plug for my e-mail list where I sent out all this information earlier. I put a lot of work into crafting these alert messages, and they explain everything at a beginner level. You can sign up here to get these emails: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts
A solar storm is on the way and may cause a moderate or even strong geomagnetic storm on Monday or Tuesday. Impact is predicted for around 20 UT on September 1, and auroras may be seen further equatorward than usual on Monday and Tuesday night. Here's what you need to know... #heliophysics #aurora
You can see here on the 7-day plot a slight rise in the last roughly 12 hours which is showing up in EPAM as well. Depending on if this event intensifies, it could further muddy the utility of EPAM as a tool to detect the incoming M2.7 CME. Just an FYI.
Careful chasing EPAM for this CME. While you probably will be able to see a rise in proton flux before CME impact, we also have a slight influence from a very minor SEP event ongoing now as evidenced by looking at the GOES proton flux.
The HUXt model for this CME has been released. It has impact on September 2 around 19 UT, almost entire day LATER than NASA and NOAA have predicted. It is typical for models to disagree. Let’s see who’s right. Be ready both Monday and Tuesday nights. Learn more: go.theauroraguy.com/huxtmodel
Good night, and stay tuned for the alert email sent to my subscribers tomorrow: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts
The official forecast is in from SWPC. Impact is slated for Sep 1 around 20 UT. This is afternoon on Labor Day for North America. Get your cameras ready for Monday night for potential auroral displays right after sunset. Let’s hope we see a nice impact at L1!
Full breakdown of events will be sent via aurora alert to my email list: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts
A G2-G3 geomagnetic storm watch has been issued by NOAA SWPC with CME impact predicted for Sep 1 at 22 UT. This is similar to NASA’s arrival time prediction. With a full halo CME, this looks promising for mid-latitude auroral displays Monday night.
The clean environment may mean that the large CME can retain its speed and hit Earth with more power. The big CME may also combine with the small CME and increase geoeffectiveness. I am still leaning on G3 for this event with a hard maybe on G4. G5 is wishful thinking/very unlikely.
Okay, sorry for all the model fatigue, but NASA M2M also modeled a weaker CME ahead of the faster M2.7 CME. This is nice, because the smaller CME may act like a push broom and create a nice, pristine environment for the large CME to expand into.
Since this model is not as widely-known as NASA M2M's ENLIL postings on the CME scoreboard, here is the source link: helioforecast.space/static/sync/...
The Austrian Space Weather Office using the ELEvo model predicts the M2.7 CME will arrive around September 1 around 13 UT +/- 6 hr. It is nice that multiple agencies agree this CME arrival may be on September 1, but do not hyper-fixate around individual model arrival time predictions. L1 or bust!
Note that models will be re-run as more data come in from this CME. Models will have different arrival times, and some agencies may disagree on the forecasted geomagnetic storm strength. Here is an updated NASA M2M model. The arrival time remains at around 19 UT on September 1.
Cloud cover forecasts for Monday night look great so far across the northern tier of the U.S.! Let’s hope most areas are clear for a potential widespread auroral display Monday night into Tuesday. Current models put impact time at 19 UT on Sep 1.
Full briefing about this event to my email list this weekend: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts
Wow, nice preliminary model run of the M2.7 CME… healthy impact at Earth! Estimated impact time is for Sep 1 at 19 UT +/- 7 hr. Potential for G2-G3 geomagnetic storming just from an eye test. Will have more updates tonight as I am on a plane right now with bad WiFi.
Full halo CME. This thing is headed for Earth. Let’s await agency models for arrival time and potential geomagnetic storm watches. I will be summarizing this event with my opinion on aurora possibilities in a email to my subscribers over the coming days: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts
I have been so fixated on AR 4197 that I didn't even realize the flaring region was AR 4199! I had to add corrections under all my posts 😅. Interesting as that region did not look too promising, but there is a bit of mixing in the southern areas of the region.
On plane Wifi, but I was able to download a snippet of frames from GOES SUVI 284 Å showing a coronal wave emanating from AR 4199 as it fired off an M2.7 flare. We will need to see coronagraph imagery and wait for models to start talking about potential effects at Earth...
Correction: AR 4199.
I will summarize any Earth-directed CMEs that result in increase chances for aurora in a message to my email list. Join over 30,000+ active email subscribers: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts
AR 4197 has just released an M2.76 flare, and there is an associated CME that is likely directed at Earth. We will need to see more imagery and model results to pinpoint an arrival time. The collective complaints of the aurora chasing community have seemingly been addressed! #heliophysics
AR 4197 has just launched at least a partially Earth-directed CME. Stay tuned for further updates. I will summarize activity in an aurora alert email if chances look good for aurora because of this event. Sign up here: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts
Heck yeah! Low-level M-flare (tapering off around M1.4) ongoing now from AR 4197. Cross your fingers for a CME. It will be Earth-directed at least somewhat.
Remember, if you have messaged me and I have NOT responded, please send me an email. My contact details are displayed on my website. I will respond within 24 hours. theauroraguy.com/pages/contact
As soon as sunspots directly face Earth: 😴 Technically, AR 4197 has a 15% chance of X-flares, but you wouldn't believe me based on how quiet it's been...
For all the links to the cameras and lenses I mentioned above, check out my blog article "My Top Camera Gear Recommendations for Aurora Photography" theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/m...
Also look at my e-book specifically written for aurora photographers: "A Complete Guide to Aurora Photography." It covers everything you need - composition and framing, choosing the correct camera settings, setting up the shot, editing, and more! theauroraguy.com/products/e-b...
Looking for more info on aurora photography? I have a bunch of resources you should check out. The first one (and maybe you already have it!) is my free e-book "A Beginner's Guide to Aurora Chasing." Get it here: go.theauroraguy.com/free-aurora-...
Before heading out, test all your gear. Especially if you are heading on an aurora chasing vacation up north, make sure you know how to take out your gear and quickly deploy it. Sometimes you have to catch a substorm, and in those situations, seconds matter!
Condensation and moisture can be annoying and cause your lens’ front element to fog up. This happens mostly in the fall for me or if I'm shooting near water. Some lenses have glass coatings to resist fog, but the best solution is to buy a lens warmer.
If you’re planning on shooting an aurora timelapse, and your camera doesn’t have an internal intervalometer, you will want to pick up an external one to control your camera. I’ve personally purchased a JJC model to use with one of my old Sony cameras.
While a camera and lens are a good start, you also need a sturdy tripod to hold everyhing in place for a long exposure. Additionally, choosing a tripod with a ball head that is easy to operate in cold temperatures and with gloves on can greatly improve your experience.
Want a camera that can record real-time video? Only a few can do it, including the Nikon Z6 III, Sony a7S III, Nikon Zf, and Sony a7 IV. The Sony a7s line stands out as the king of low-light video performance. I use a Sony a7s iii for recording all my real-time videos.
... Sigma 14-24mm f/2.8 DG HSM Art, Sigma 15mm f/1.4 Fisheye DG DN Art (Sony E and Leica L), Laowa Argus 35mm f/0.95 FF (most useful for real-time video purposes).
Available in multiple mounts: Tamron SP 15-30mm f/2.8 Di VC USD G2 Tamron SP 35mm f/1.4 Di USD Sigma 14mm f/1.4 ART (Sony E and Leica L) Sigma 14-24mm f/2.8 DG DN Art (Sony E and Leica L) Sigma 20mm f/1.4 DG DN Art (Sony E and Leica L) ...
Nikon mirrorless: Nikon NIKKOR Z 14-24mm f/2.8 S Canon mirrorless: Canon RF 15-35mm f/2.8L IS
How about other lens options? These don't fall under any specific budget, but if you can afford them, here are some of the top astrophotography lenses currently available: Sony mount: Sony FE 14mm f/1.8 GM, Sony FE 16 mm f/1.8 G.
Some highlighted lenses at this price point? Check out: Sony FE 20mm f/1.8 G (used), Nikon AF-S NIKKOR 14-24mm f/2.8G ED (used).
Under $2000 and it almost gets harder to form your setup since there are so many more options, but there are still a few camera bodies I'd add to my shopping list: Sony a7 III (used), Canon EOS R6 (used but still a bit pricey), Canon EOS R8 (used).
