From Financial Times, decline in birth rates is mostly decline among progressives; conservatives still tending to have children at higher rates. Could affect politics long term.
From Financial Times, decline in birth rates is mostly decline among progressives; conservatives still tending to have children at higher rates. Could affect politics long term.
As a coastal elite, I think we need to run non coastal elites who don’t lecture people on whether they should say coastal elites.
movement of people is out of blue states into red, with some implications for the Electoral College post 2030. Maybe blue states can reverse that.
Hm, yes, and if you put it in all caps like Trump it becomes a truer and more reasonable observation. I do know somebody who moved to Alabama from CA, and liked it ok. Others to Kansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Fla & Texas and hv been quite happy. And unfortunately the stats are what they are; the…
Trump wd touch it. Low information and sometimes misinformation is a huge problem, but it’s not exactly accurate to say ppl voted for hospital closures. They never believed that was coming.
People voted against inflation, chaotic immigration, and real or perceived Dem prioritizing interest groups (“she’s for they/them, he’s for you” and all that). When I knocked doors for Harris in Philly, a lot of ppl complained abt Dem governance there. Nobody talked abt Medicaid or thought…
the ability to afford a home and start a family, red states have delivered where blues haven’t, and that cd affect our politics for a long time.
True for the poorer states, but not true for all though, like Texas. And I think while progressives love to turn up their noses at red states, often for good reasons, we do have to wrestle w the reality that net migration has been from blue to red for years. In some really fundamental ways, like…
I dunno, have a lot of California friends and relatives moving to red states now bc they can afford a home there.
One structural disadvantage for Ds may be that issues wh/ often hurt Ds affect people in everyday ways - crime, including petty crime, things you don’t like abt yr kid’s school, insane price of housing in blue cities. Consequences of T’s evils are slower in coming & not in ppl’s lives everyday.
Mostly but not totally same. Cost of housing is such a big issue here in SF Bay area, like in NY; I’d really like to see Dems in expensive markets nationwide produce successful solutions. And I dread poorly thought out solutions that’ll just become more Republican ad fodder.
Yes, Latino vote’s been shifting away from Rs over last several election cycles, unfortunately, across many diff grps of Latinos. It’s now roughly 50/50, and of course the shift is even bigger w Latino men. This plus loss of white working class is lethal to Ds unless we can reverse some of it.
Dems nd to do a lot of work to bring at least some of these voters back or we’re at a severe disadvantage long term.
Turning out base is good, but it’s not enough. Dems have *lost* a lot of what used to be our base. True across almost every demographic, most prominently Latinos but to some degree just abt every demo exc college+ white women. Gender gap used to favor Ds, now helps Rs. Reasons are complex, but…
every demographic exc college + white women, it’s time to do some healthy reviews of yr approach. Mking up fantasies abt how Trump stole the election is cope that lets us keep repeating the same mistakes.
And the lie that Trump stole ‘24 lets Dems dodge the hard work of figuring out why we’re losing voters. Yes, racism & other bigotries play a role, so did inflation & misinfo. But when you’ve lost much of yr traditional working class base, yr “blue wall,” & voters across almost…
immigration. Yes, Trump & other demagogues wl lie and appeal to bigotries. But successful demagogues have an instinct for lies w a kernel of truth that gives them much more power. Solid policy successes by Ds tk a lot of the oxygen from the lies.
Yes. Dems cd do themselves huge favors by mking blue states/cities places where it’s easier to afford a home, to build, where crime & public disorder are vy low. If Ds ever get federal pwr again, reform immigration to mk a more simplified, orderly process w moderate rates of…
rates of immigration, from all over the world, under a reformed and rational system? Yes. The chaotic system we’ve had, no; guaranteed to cause a backlash.
And Ds need to stick up for things that are just good policy. Police reform, social programs that help lower crime? Yes! And also enough legit police presence to deter/catch criminals. Civil rts for trans & other minorities? Yes! Essentially unregulated medical transition for minors, no. Moderate…
100% this. And even w/i liberal areas and historically Dem-voting groups, Ds will lose - already hv lost - votes if they push the bounds too far on various social issues.
And unless Dems can get votes - preferably assemble a coalition that can win somewhat reliably - Trump & co. will do what they want far beyond ‘29. Not sure Ds can. Hv some gd candidates, but Ds still seem too indebted to interest grps that demand maximalist positions most voters wl never go for.
An idea:
What is the use of any guarantee given by Trump?
And that democratic politicians should listen to voters. Not that you can never try to lead voters to something better; obvs that’s part of being a leader. But it’s a balance. In a democracy, politicians do have to listen, too.
Doesn’t seem to me the argument is that public opinion is static (it’s not), more that there are limits to how far it can move (there are). You can persuade ppl that police nd reform; you’ll never persuade ppl to defund the police. Similar on many issues.
He’ll make excuses then, too. Utter worm.
Not really fair or accurate here. Chamberlain’s generation had of course fought a war in Europe at terrible cost 20 yrs before. The fear of rpting that catastrophe was the overwhelming reason for appeasement. Trump’s appeasement has all the stupidity of Chamberlain’s but w/o the trauma for excuse.
Good for the European leaders for taking a stand. But can they, will they, defend Ukraine? For us, unbelievably shameful moment. It’s as if Charles Lindbergh were in the White House in 1939.
I’d like to think so, and Bluesky is the worst for this. But it’s alarming how much activist & donor groups with these attitudes influence the Dem party. It’s a real liability for Dems.
"I want to save democracy but only if it means never working with anyone who disagrees with me on any issue of consequence." I see this sentiment daily expressed on BlueSky.
Beautiful scenes in Anchorage, Alaska.
I live in a liberal neighborhood full of “In this house we believe” signs posted by nimbys who oppose new development. Of course the resulting dearth of new housing drives prices up. Fortunately, tho, think this is starting to change in CA.
some kind of constructive, problem-solving politics, the politics of a rising tide that lifts all boats? Not optimistic abt the near term. But that’s what we’ve gotta keep fighting for, if not for our sakes then for our kids’ future.
frame that law in a way that was financially viable, and also to get it thru Congress. It was a battle all the way. Second, whatever its flaws, it’s been a huge force for good. It’s helped keep millions of elderly people out of poverty for decades now. Will our country be able to return to…
Today 90 years ago FDR signed Social Security into law. Lots of doubts and battles over its future. But two other pts rn. First, we tend to think in retrospect that things were inevitable or obvious. But it was very difficult to… www.msn.com/en-us/news/p...
Dems’ll prbly do well in midterms. And do even better if Trump crashes the economy. But at best we’re eking out gains against a lunatic, at worst losing. To do better than that, we need a broad coalition that includes a lot of non-college voters. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
www.thefire.org/news/lawsuit...
It’d get unbelievably messy fast as rural red areas tried to secede from seceding blue states, possibly blue urban areas in red states tried to secede from the non-seceding states….
Don’t quite agree w this. I think the donor & activist groups, who are vy online but also donate a lot, tend to push the Dems toward maximalist demands of particular interest groups and away from what most voters want.
Oof, trying to work up the fortitude to tackle Moby.
Every kind of pie that Harold liked! Still want that picnic.
interesting ppl FDR interacted with, like Al Smith, Eleanor, & others. A terrif study of the times & of the development of character & the paradoxes of a flawed but great man.
Cheating a little bc I can’t think of an lifetime favorite, but recently read Geoffrey Ward’s bios of FDR before he came to the Presidency - “Before the Trumpet” and “A First Class Temperament.” Loved them. Detailed & fascinating social history, graceful writing, great mini-bios of many…
Loved that book so so much as a kid! Reread it recently and still enjoyed it, tho of course can’t recapture quite the thrill of the first time reading. I can remember my heart thumping as they were frantically escaping from Paris. And of course the end stays with you forever.
Oh, still love the Winds of War. Judging from other things I’ve read on WWII, and from talking to people who lived then, it does such a great job catching the feel of life in those times, from the crackle of carbon paper in the typewriter to the scream of a Stuka divebomber.
Good NYT article on what happens when Trump’s tariffs hit other countries’ economies. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/04/b...
Yep. And to us if we can still carry it.
Chernow’s bio is very good, btw, recommend.
absorb contradiction and complexity.
True. And he even aside from that, was full of contradiction, like our history. He advanced the cause of liberty in genuinely revolutionary ways, even risked his life to do it, yet practiced tyranny on his own estate. Both are true at same time. Can’t begin to study history w/o being able to…
My extended family has ancestors who were abolitionists, ancestors who fought for the Union, and ancestors who fought for the Confederacy. I don’t think we shd downplay the evils our country has done at all, but I think all the stories shd be told.
his achievements in bringing about a new order of liberty & equality were also real and immensely worth studying. I think the cynical & dismissive view of our history has been not the only or most important, but a factor, in eroding a healthy patriotism & in the extreme cynicism we hv today.
of years ago I was reading Chernow’s bio of Washington & had it on the coffee table. Interesting how dismissive the comments from some of my more leftish-leaning friends were; you’d think the *only* salient thing abt Washington was that he enslaved people. And that is absolutely salient. But…
Good article, thank you. Approaches leadership & also both the evils and the glories of our country intelligently. We have Trump despicably erasing mention of our injustices from the public record, and in other quarters the 1619 view of American history that we are nothing but our evils. A couple…
And our fledgling republic might not have succeeded w/o Washington’s example of stepping down from the Presidency when, given his popularity w both public and army, he cd easily have made himself president-for-life.
Dems should make this front and center of their discourse.
#OnThisDay in 1776, 56 members of the Second Continental Congress start signing the #DeclarationofIndependence in Philadelphia. Learn more with #ConstitutionDaily: ow.ly/GQTI50WxYIl
And if anything, their brutality & jackboot optics are making normies less favorable to the Trump admin, even ppl who mt be conservative on immigration.
Great read on early Nazi years & crumbling of democracy. Nothing’s surprising abt institutions caving once authoritarians gain substantial power. Everything depends on keeping fascists far from power in the first place. If we get our country back, worth thinking abt how to guard against next Trump.
If he gets elected, wl be vy curious to see if he solves some of NYC’s problems, or ends up like Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson. If former, bet he really wl get the “America’s Mayor” treatment. If latter, more material for Chris LaCivita.
This. In a pluralistic society, nobody is going to get 100% of what they want. But Dems depend on activist groups who want complete fealty to maximalist demands. Dems’ll never command large majorities of the country this way.
Trump randomly announced huge tariffs on Lesotho in April, for no rational reason. Enormous economic consequences have already followed www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/w...
China is roaring forward in the race to be the world’s clean energy powerhouse.
that agenda. But Dems need to be seen as a party that can build things, solve housing shortages, and get stuff done.
As a yimby in a blue neighborhood where everybody has “in this house we believe” yard signs but nobody wants new housing, I hope Dems’ ideas include some kind of abundance agenda. Will create some conflict w/i the party bc there are lots of blue nimbys; and can argue abt exact contours of…
She also was an active proponent of the New Deal, was one of few Hollywood stars to speak out against racial discrimination in the movie industry, spoke out early and ferociously against Hitler, devoted the war years to working for the Red Cross, & advocated for civil rights thru the 50s.
I don’t know MAGA folks as well as Atticus, since I live in a blue zone, but I think the only thing that mt turn a substantial part of his voters against him is a bad economy that hits them directly.
Oof. Doesn’t really surprise me, but my lord. And yes, I’d welcome any who turn, with open arms.
Will MAGA go along with this?
Yes, it does.
I’m afraid Trump has only begun to extend his reach. The only hope is in how slovenly & chaotic & inefficient he is.
When Trump was elected, some ppl I know here in CA hoped we wd be insulated, being in a blue state. But so many institutions dpnd on federal largesse one way or another - museums, universities, Medical, Planned Parenthood, even private corporations - that we’re seeing capitulation everywhere. And…
The least surprising thing is the capitulation. Most people bow to money and power. All the more respect to the people who really do stand up.
One thing helping Trump is that isolationism & suspicion of American power is pretty widespread, both on right and left.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/o...
American family burn $1000. It’s a good idea to read the article.
The first article wasn’t stupid at all. And it didn’t say the economy is great. It was a good, thoughtful piece saying we may or may not get recession, but are likely to get slowing growth + inflation, which is in line w this jobs report. The author said tariffs are like having each…
Listen to this mealy-mouthed non-answer about the billions in CANCER RESEARCH funding Trump's budget chief is illegally blocking. Clinical trials have been cut short. Research is shutting down. We're talking irreparable harm. Keep speaking up until they get this money out.
human nature. Key imo is good government and policies that build a diverse society while keeping people’s worst impulses, which wl always be lurking, in some kind of check. But for foreseeable future, all the worst impulses have free rein.
Not at all shocking. Humans don’t deal easily w pluralism. Very hard to find societies where it’s flourished, or that haven’t been riven by religious/ethnic/regional conflicts. Building a pluralistic and egalitarian country is both necessary and noble, but in some ways a hard uphill push against…
And yes, some good news.
Very curious to see if MAGA finally falls into line if (when) Trump pardons her and what excuses they’ll tell themselves.
True. But altho I’d favor whatever reforms we can manage to achieve a sturdier system, I’m not sure there’s any system foolproof against enough turpitude and spinelessness.
Wd hope that American medical institutions wd at last look at findings & approach of much of Europe - Finland, Scandinavian countries, UK, France.
more & more into FB rage bait, and it is affecting even the way she talks irl. Yes, it is much worse on the right. But even here in blueland, disturbing to see the info siloing & the appeal of anger over careful thought.
friends here in CA. Opened FB this morning to see a friend posting a meme that men (all men, apparently, no qualifier) wd rather destroy the economy than allow women equality. Hm, well now, big if true. This from someone I know irl, who was a thoughtful person but has gone…
And getting eyeball time by ginning up hate & paranoia has become mainstreamed across so much media. Hv seen the Fox news phenom w some of my more distant fam living in midwest, tho haven’t experienced anything like in your family. Also, see hints of this among liberal/leftish…
Yes, although I think this wdn’t have happened w/o the China shock & other factors hitting working class employment.
Is there any move toward asylum for immigrants Trump mt send to CECOT or his alligator Alcatraz? Maybe people at risk of these things cd head over the border to Canada and claim asylum.
Republicans’ bonanza for billionaires falls short for working families. While Democrats advanced a Child Tax Credit that lifted up low-income and middle-class families, Republicans’ Child Tax Credit leaves many struggling families behind.
#ResistanceEarth #BlueEarth Our land masses are drying out due to climate change, threatening the availability of drinking water and our ability to grow food. Evaporating water is being redirected to oceans, causing more rapid sea level rise that threatens coasts. www.nbcnews.com/science/clim...
Does poll say why Ds are lower? Subhead says “Republicans preferred on most issues that decide elections despite unease with Trump over the economy, tariffs and foreign policy.” But can’t read more detail than that since I don’t have a WSJ subscription.
Agree, but… it only takes one bad actor. Every country in the world cd get rid of nuclear weapons, and then if one regime starts rebuilding, or is suspected to… More countries will follow. And if anything, crude nuclear devices hv gotten easier to build, more accessible to non-state actors.
senses of the word) in their application of fear. They just have to mk people worried abt the bottom line, and it’s often enough.
This. Several comparisons in the comments to Hitler. But this illustrates again how modern tyranny works. In Germany by the mid-30s, opposing Hitler carried a real risk of death, torture, imprisonment. Modern autocrats like Orban & Trump have figured out they can be a lot more economical (in 2…
The two fired chaplains, so much braver than the CEO.
Dumbest people + fascism + AI.
Amazing how Trump gets away with these combo plates of moronic culture war, repression of speech, and in the end, always personal grift.
"This is what standing up to dictators looks like" listen to @garrykasparov.bsky.social and Masih Alinejad www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/arc...