Using science to elect Dems. Dad x2; kidney donor; baker; goalkeeper
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"We need to reform zoning codes in order to increase housing supply" and "we don't want to step into the business of local government" and "dense cities are dangerous hellholes that we must pacify militarily" are three propositions that don't hang together at all
Republican governors have sent National Guard troops to Democratic-led Washington, D.C., even though cities in their states all have higher rates of violent crime than the nation’s capital. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/u...
RFK Jr: “If you’ve ever compared an unvaccinated kid to a vaccinated kid… you see the bright eyes, the engagement, the social interactions, the curiosity. And you compare them to the child who even had one or two vaccines, and they’re completely different.“ This man is an existential threat.
During Jim Crow, many states mandated that anyone seeking to register to vote or apply to a state university had to have multiple voters/alumni “vouch” for their character. It was an easy if unsubtle way to maintain all-white (or mostly-white) institutions
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One of the firefighters arrested is an Oregonian. My office has been in touch with his lawyer who says he can't locate his client. My office is working to get more information on his whereabouts ASAP.
Here's what the third day of elementary school looked like in Mount Pleasant, Washington DC.
GRAND JURY NULLIFICATION! Prosecutors Fail to Secure Indictment Against Man Who Threw Sandwich at Federal Agent www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/u...
Oh no, NY Times. You've been punked.
Confirmed as a double tap by Ravid
This is what we call state appropriation and is a hallmark of the absence of the rule of law. When the state simply takes away part of a company, what it says is that there are no more property rights, period. (Remember this when the MAGA crowd screams about socialism and communism.)
Mamdani's relentless focus on cost of living is his #1 selling point-- With his team's love of puzzle hunts only slightly behind :)
To be clear: viral, base-mobilizing messaging is also useful close to the election --just have to understand how tough the district is and mix in an appropriate amount of persuasion messaging as well.
I, for one, am not scared of learning information that cuts against my instincts. DC occupation is a base message, not a persuasion message... so? Use the info to craft your anti-Trump attacks accordingly. We're over a year from the midterms. Viral, base-mobilizing content is fine!
Update: * He’s been charged with a felony * Initial spreadsheet of recent arrests lists officer’s badge as 12345 * @cmlewisgeorgew4.bsky.social will be requesting body cam footage
The crowd at Stop One of the Mamdani scavenger hunt!
I can’t believe this exchange is real.
The CDC shooting didn’t even really register in the news and the details are absolutely insane
News Analysis: Protests in Tel Aviv calling for an end to the war in Gaza culminated in a rally attended by hundreds of thousands of people on Sunday, exposing the chasm between many Israelis and the unpopular hard-line government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. nyti.ms/45JhAPT
And the original post included the Blue Collar coalition -- don't sleep on them! I think it's interesting that candidates who glom onto Blue Collar/worker/econ issues over-perform in their run-of-the-mill districts.
The anecdata (eg, Eastman, Gill, McCleod-Skinner) also indicate that progressives perform poorly in swing districts -- but would love more systematic data there.
I'm also concluding that the electoral strategy used by the Squad does not win net votes (_maybe_ more base votes, but fewer swing votes) and thus is a poor electoral strategy for use by purple-state candidates.
The Squad wins and they aren't over-performers. Where are the progressive over-performers in purple districts who ID with the Squad? What's stopping them? (Other than the general election electorate obviously...viz, Kara Eastman)
Happy to answer! It's because the far left side of the issue will increase cost of living (for a good, crucial cause of course). There are "all of the above" approaches that both increase clean energy and lower bills -- but caution is warranted bc the stereotype puts Dems on the wrong side of voters
What's the evidence for (2) -- from what I've seen, follower count is uncorrelated with over-performance. Even still, let's aim for both? Candidates in tough districts definitely need to be loud about their differentiation from the party brand.
But it all comes to a head when orgs push for progressives in purple seats. These primary unforced errors stay with me.
That's correct. Squad vs Cuellar is the debate held amongst certain consultant/org circles. But when push comes to shove, the *campaign* consultants working in purple districts understand all of this and there are revealed preferences. Totally agree with you there.
Sure, but when sophisticated data is used by @lakshya.splitticket.org people complain. So then I used simpler data. People still object. Agree that safe seats Dems can use any strategy. But there ARE consultants who argue for everyone to mimic The Squad. Hence the disagreement.
I don't pretend to know all these candidates individually, but (on avg) they would have lost votes by mimicking The Squad. I bet they would've won more votes by being loud about heterodox popular (sometimes local) issues. Can't win every race of course, but I want to maximize our chances.
Only some. To wit: why can't the Squad over-perform? Why are there no progressives representing Trump districts?
...oh, also Jamie McLeod-Skinner ('22). And where is even the anecdata of a flaming progressive showing us the way to win in tough districts? I'm honestly not sure what even the counterexample I'm supposed to be arguing against here is.
What about House 2022 - Biden 2020? But, these quibbles are beside the point: we need candidates who will win/over-perform in these purple districts, and folks like MGP and Golden are showing us the way! There's a reason Jamie McLeod-Skinner isn't a member of Congress
Well, selects on winning at least (some of these data points includes the first win for the member). It's much harder to do this analysis with losing challengers, but I have plenty of examples of progressives losing winnable races: Eastman ('18), Feingold ('16), Barnes ('22), Gill (IL-13, '12) ...
Of course, candidates in Blue Districts can choose whatever strategy they want (beyond winning the primary). But, if being progressive turns out the base more than it hurts with swing voters, why don't progressive candidates over-perform in their blue districts?
Finally, none of this analysis would have been possible without the herculean and consistent efforts of @the-downballot.com and @drewsav.bsky.social to determine presidential vote by CD. Thank you everyone who does that work!
See today's Slow Boring by @mattyglesias.bsky.social for the larger picture. One key idea is that the biggest benefits may come from our 2028 nominee who can enlarge the Dem party's tent. www.slowboring.com/p/moderation...
In meme form, I'm curious if Bonica believes that Manchin would have done just as well if he curated his brand as a progressive. eg, Feingold was well-known and well-loved by progressives, but that didn't help him over-perform H Clinton in 2016. And 1pp of over-performance would have been enough!
One place where I do agree with @adambonica.bsky.social is that when you take popular, heterodox positions, be *loud* about it. Remember Manchin's shooting of the cap & trade bill? www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIJO...
That helps explain why the Blue Collar Caucus does so well. Candidates who display their solidarity with the working class on economic issues send an excellent signal to voters. Also, per the theory (Zaller), less-engaged/less-educated Americans are a key swing demo.
That begs the question: what's popular? I'm often reminded on this classic chart from 2016 showing that cross-pressured voters are (on avg) economically liberal and socially conservative.
Bonica's ally in this discussion, @gelliottmorris.com, is closer to the mark. Over-performers take heterodox, popular positions. That way they aren't seen as "the usual Democrat". (In contrast: corporatist positions like Sinema's siding with Pharma against lower drug prices is a very bad idea.)
I intentionally include 2022 because the premise of "be super progressive & win more votes" is that the base will turn out. House candidates have more sway over turnout in midterms years, so the Squad should have over-performed more in 22. Didn't happen. Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Challenge accepted. No models: simple over-performance (House - pres) by caucus. This way we don't have to argue over the definition of "moderate". In sum: Blue Dog > Blue Collar > New Dems > The Squad Candidates who want to win in tough districts would do well to mimic over-performers.
Very good reporting. How an Asylum Seeker in U.S. Custody Ended Up in a Russian Prison www.newyorker.com/news/the-led...
I want a big-tent Democratic Party, by which i mean the tent should be big enough to include the Democratic nominee for Mayor of New York
the literal only reason Nina Turner is not in her third term as a US Congresswoman is that she bafflingly chose to go dark on TV in the final weeks of her primary after dumping like a couple million into early ads and that's something we should all remember when considering her political advice
man DC statehood seems like it'd be a pretty helpful barrier to authoritarianism
Revealed preferences: clearly Senate Republicans think ideology matters in winning general elections! 🍿🍿🍿
One reason to be outspoken on *anti*-authoritarian views.
once you notice that people simply do not believe that republicans have agency or any responsibility for the actions they take, you see it everywhere
Also, I don't disagree with (most of) Elliott's analysis -- it's just that I prefer to maximize our chances of ousting Trump Rs. Seems that other folk on this site feel otherwise. But, no matter, there's little disagreement on the evidence -- so I'm going to keep trying to elect Dems & stop Trump!
Well, will you update your opinion with new data? More Americans see Harris than Trump as very ideological www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Nothing is a silver bullet (obviously). I think (1) we should try to identify what defines a "great candidate" and (2) meanwhile, recruit compelling candidates who advocate for heterodox, popular positions (and do anything else the evidence indicates will win them more votes)
His main point was the moderation boosts electoral outcomes by 1-1.5pp. Eight (!) House races were decided within 1.5pp on the margin. I'm glad the party encourages us to win those races. And, to be clear, we should follow the evidence on any other factors that matter as well.
Agree with Aaron that the analysis is great. It's the takeaway that moderation doesn't matter that seems off to me, given it's still bigger than most (all?) other plausible campaign effects. I think people just have unreasonable expectations for causal effect of various factors in elections.
I, for one, would like 4 extra House seats right now!
I think the infighting is distracting, yes. Your analysis is good--I encouraged people to read it!
Read this whole post because if you just read the headline you'll think there's some sort of huge disagreement between the party and the evidence. Rather: (1) moderates over-perform and (2) taking popular, heterodox positions is good. Can we all just move on now to saving the Republic?
Yeah, who uses Obamacare anyways? (Made possible by several <1pp wins)
It looks to me like the effect of ideology on WAR is still very much there, just the top 10 and bottom 10 ideo measure is too dependent on the Pramila Jayapal (overperformer) and Jim Costa (underperformer) outliers.
I expected Israel to lie and claim this was a mistake. It’s incredible that they are now openly admitting to targeted assassinations of journalists.
RFK Jr is doing to the US what he did to Samoa: “In the small island country of Samoa, lives have been forever altered by an outbreak of the disease in 2019 that caused at least 83 deaths & 1,867 hospitalisations, mostly of babies & young children. Thousands more fell sick” bsky.app/profile/aust...
The ADL isn’t a civil rights organization that defends American Jews. It’s a pro-Israel organization that claims to speak on behalf of American Jews.
Laura Loomer is attacking Flo Groberg for being the wrong kind of Medal of Honor recipient—he’s a French-Algerian immigrant—and suggesting the Army posting about him today is an act of disloyalty to Trump. …The Army posted about Flo today because 8/8/2012 was the day he tackled that suicide bomber.
For the math folks on here: NSF has suspended Terry Tao's grant. www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/...
"WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 1, 2025) – The Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) announced today that it will begin an orderly wind-down of its operations" cpb.org/pressroom/Co...
I am reminded of when Rogan said he was glad USAID was dismantled so now we'd have enough money to forgive student loan debt.
Really good thread.
This news dropped the same day as this marvelous work from UF on a new immunotherapy method that could treat a variety of different cancers. We are so close to life changing, life saving breakthroughs, and ignorant ghouls are throwing it all away www.nature.com/articles/s41...
I appreciate this summation of the horrors by Charlotte -- and just donated to @wck.org in an effort to do *something* to save lives
If you're a visual learner: white represents money FEMA is granting to build detention centers. Blue represents too much money to spend saving little girls (and a hundred other people) from drowning
The way that I was raised, being Jewish meant believing that every human life was sacred; to save a single human life meant saving all of humanity. That no law or ritual was more important than saving a single human life. It's unfathomable that any Jew can accept what Israel is doing in Gaza.
come for the extended intro where i call jd vance a loser, stay for my analysis connecting vance's argument to the most reactionary antebellum views of citizenship
Noem let those girls die with search and rescue teams sitting on their hands waiting for authorization
Yeah, it's a "growth metro" and yet... its home prices aren't growing -- funny that!
Did you know transit is 20 times safer than driving a car? Each year, public transportation prevents more than 2,500 injuries related to car accidents. Take Metro!
The median lockdown order was lifted on May 15. George Floyd was murdered May 25th. Does TCW think states conspired with time travelers to lift lockdowns for summer protests??
Okay I'm only 2 minutes in but when was this "even Republicans wanted a post-racial society after Obama won" moment? Tea Party rallies were up and running in 09 with signs like this.
“…he presented his Texas ID, Social Security card and a wallet-sized birth certificate. The agents refused to believe he was a citizen and took him into custody. “I told them we had rights and asked to make a phone call. But they told us, 'You don't have rights to anything'," Galicia told the paper”
Moving scene - tears, hugs, and cheers - inside the State Dept HQ last night, as diplomats gathered in the lobby to clap out their laid off colleagues, some of which have served for decades 👇🏻
So there it is. They finally managed to kill someone in one of their Rambo cosplay events. Stephen Miller is responsible for this needless death. Theses thugs who in many cases were able to get legit police jobs think they’re doing a bin Laden compound raid or something.
ALERT: Attorney General Pam Bondi is apparently threatening some of those providing medical care to their minor transgender patients. If you receive one of these subpoenas, please reach out, have your lawyer do so, or send me a copy. My email is in bio, as is my Signal.
On Tuesday, scientists held an event organized by House Democrats in which they stood in front of posters outlining their work — and the federal cuts that now threaten it.
Casual inference pop quiz! Can you think of ANY confounders in this relationship? H/t @chloergibbs.bsky.social www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
Last week, California passed a landmark law exempting many infill housing developments from CEQA. Here’s how we can do the same thing on a national level, exempting urban infill housing from NEPA. New report from Aaron Shroyer for @publicenterprise.bsky.social:
this is really important. FEMA is effectively already being shut down.
here are the results: since january 1, 2021, rufo has appeared in the WSJ 32 times. in the same period, he appeared in NYT 167 times.
1/2 You could write a book about one atrocious headline in print NYT today (I sort of wrote this book 30 years ago, Breaking the News, but others can take a turn.) What's wrong this headline? Mamdani "faces scrutiny" **ONLY AND EXCLUSIVELY** because NYT decided to make this a "thing." Really bad.
@aoc.bsky.social No caption needed.
Kyiv this morning
Republicans take your tax dollars and give them to billionaires and criminals
I, for one, certainly believe that Rs are burning political capital to pass their agenda and that Valadao will lose by more if he votes for the final bill. The reason no one is saying "playing into their hands" is that Rs are doing this to change public policy (not merely attention).
We visited over two dozen House GOP offices today, here's an exchange that illustrates our impact: GOP Staffer: We were wondering if you were coming LL: Oh, you heard we were here? GOP Staffer: _Everyone_ knows you are here.
Here's the view of the DIE-IN in front of Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick's office building in PA-01, as seen from above. We want him to VOTE NO on Trump's Billionaire Bailout Budget Bill! Thank you to Ava Redmond for her drone work!
Trump Withholds Nearly $7 Billion for Schools, With Little Explanation www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/u...
I agree that Elon Musk's small *faction* of the Republican party is very close to that. But look at both Trump's clamp down on free speech and the OBBBA--ie, what Rs are actually doing--and it's miles away. Maybe in 10 years Rs will follow Musk, not Trump. If so, I'll change my tune
Fair, neither party is close to that right now. In contrast, for the Greens: Biden made a massive investment in renewables/batteries. Also expanded fed. land protections. So to the extent "Green" = environment, taking votes away from Dems in tight races is extremely counterproductive.
I think it's an open question which party is serving Libertarian ideals better at this moment actually (Ds are the anti-deficits/pro-legal-immigration/pro-freedom party right now), so I understand if Libertarians are conflicted
Serious question: wouldn't vibes theory point candidates in the other direction though? (ie, run on the vibe of lowering costs?)