Institute Professor, MIT Economics. Co-Director of @mitshapingwork.bsky.social. Author of Why Nations Fail, The Narrow Corridor, and Power & Progress.
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In a lecture last month at London Business School, @dacemoglumit.bsky.social previewed ideas from his forthcoming book on remaking liberalism in an age of inequality, AI, and political polarization. Recording: www.youtube.com/watch?v=k23S... Event summary: wheelerblog.london.edu/remaking-lib...
The MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative is now the James M. and Cathleen D. Stone Center on Inequality and Shaping the Future of Work. Hear from our co-directors @dacemoglumit.bsky.social, @davidautor.bsky.social, and @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social about our mission and goals for the years ahead.
Dear followers, I will be giving a talk at the LSE Festival on June 18 at 5:30 BST. You can register to join online here. www.lse.ac.uk/Events/LSE-F...
Co-director @dacemoglumit.bsky.social explains why the centralized nature of the social media ecosystem, which puts an enormous amount of power in the hands of a few platforms, is a threat to democracy — and why AI may be headed in the same direction.
I was interviewed on @wbur.org's On Point this morning about the state of institutions and corruption under the Trump administration. The full audio is available here. www.wbur.org/onpoint/2025...
I am very pleased to share this announcement of our new center at MIT. @davidautor.bsky.social, @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social and I are grateful to the Stone Foundation for their generous support enabling us to study two defining challenges of our age: inequality and the future of work.
Co-director @dacemoglumit.bsky.social lays out two possible futures for agentic AI: autonomous AI agents that act on behalf of humans, or AI advisors that support human decision-makers. Which path we take will have far-reaching implications for human agency, inequality, and the labor market.
Dear followers, please see my FY article on breaking up Tech monopolies The US ruled against Google’s monopoly — Europe should do the same via @financialtimes.com. www.ft.com/content/2b78...
Dear followers, please find my interview with the MIT New Colossus Project here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp6j...
When that happens, the US financial account will start worsening and the current account will have to improve. A victory for Trump!
Trump’s tariffs, attacks on allies and NATO, and policies shaking the core of US institutions will make US assets less safe, more uncertain and less attractive.
As every textbook teaches us, the current account deficit is equal to the financial account surplus. The US has a current account deficit in part because its assets (treasuries, private debt and equity) are attractive to foreigners – largely because of their safety and liquidity.
Could this moment be a prelude to Trump's Pyrrhic victory on the US current deficit?
Nobel laureate and co-director @dacemoglumit.bsky.social reacts to the Trump tariffs. "I think we are starting uncharted experimentation now with a rapid end to the globalization episode."
Değişime kimin liderlik edeceği ve bu liderin ülkenin geleceği için gerekli çığır açan dönüşümü başlatıp başlatamayacağı belirsizliğini koruyor.
Türkiye'nin bu yola gireceğinin garantisi yok. Eğer Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan buna teşebbüs etmezse (ki bu ihtimal az değil), Türk siyaseti daha belirsiz ve daha çatışmacı hale gelecektir.
Ancak burada gerekli olan perspektif ve kurumsal yaklaşım değişikliği, Kürt siyasetini kendi tarafına çekmeye çalışmaktan (Cumhurbaşkanı'nın şu anda denediği gibi) daha radikal olmalıdır.
Bu yolu seçecek olan kim? Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan geçmişte zamana ve fırsatlara göre değişebileceğini (ve bu tür geri dönüşler yaparken tabanını bir araya getirebileceğini) kanıtladı.
Ayrıca bu, nüfusun Avrupalıları ortak olarak görmesini de gerektirecektir.
Bu, hükümetin sivil toplum faaliyetlerini ve protestoları kabul etmesini ve hatta kutlamasını da gerektirir. Ülke gençliğinin siyasete yönelik yeni ve büyük coşkusunu geliştirmesini ve hatta ülke işlerine daha da fazla dahil olmasını da gerektirecektir.
Türkiye'nin Avrupalı ortaklarına, demokratik kurumlarındaki bozulmayı tersine çevirmeye çalışacağına dair sinyaller göndermesi gerekiyor (mevcut durumda ülke, demokrasinin kötüleşmesi açısından dünyada en kötü performansa sahiplerden biri durumundadır).
(Türkiye’nin en yüksek verimlilik artışını AB üyelik sürecinde yaşandığını da hatırlatılayabiliriz.) Ancak bu yol, Türkiye'nin demokrasiye olan bağlılığından geçiyor.
Ancak Avrupa pazarlarına açılmak, Avrupa sermayesinin katkısı ve en önemlisi de Avrupa teknolojisi ve Avrupalı şirketlerle ortak girişim fırsatları Türkiye'nin verimlilik potansiyelini önemli ölçüde artırabilir.
Avrupa Birliği'nin ve Avrupa Savunma Paktı'nın bir parçası olmak, Türkiye için oyunun kurallarını değiştirecektir. Cılız verimlilik artışı ve bunun sonucunda oluşan, yaygın yoksulluğa rağmen reel ücretlerdeki yavaş artış yüzünden ülke ekonomisi zorluk içinde.
Avrupa nüfusunun hızla yaşlanması nedeniyle, Avrupa'ya daha fazla Türk göçü ihtimali artık eskisi kadar ürkütücü olmayabilir.
Türkiye için Avrupa yolu artık ulaşılmaz değil. Türkiye NATO'nun en büyük ikinci ordusuna sahip ve olası bir savunma birliği inşasında Almanya, Fransa ve diğer Avrupa ülkeleri için çok önemli bir ortak olacaktır.
Bu gelişmeler bağlamında Türkiye'nin önünde bir tercih olacaktır. Her iki bloğun dışında kalmayı da seçebilir. ABD-Rusya-Çin eksenini kendine daha yakın da görebilir. Ya da Avrupa bloğunun bir parçası olmayı seçebilir.
Yani liberal demokrasiye bağlı ve kendi savunmasını önceliğe alan yeni bir Avrupa bloğu (hatta Kanada'nın bile katılacağı) ihtimali artık düşünülemez değil.
... bu durumda her şey tekrar değişebilir. Ancak şimdilik bunu yapabileceklerinin garantisi yok. ABD kurumlarının dört yıl daha bozulmadan hayatta kalacağına kesinlikle güvenmemeliyiz.
Demokratlar 2026'daki ara seçimlerde Temsilciler Meclisi'ni geri alırsa ve Trump'ın ABD kurumlarına yönelik saldırısını ve küresel düzeni yeniden oluşturma çabalarını yavaşlatırsa ve ardından da 2028 başkanlık seçimleri sonuçlarını tersine çevirir ve ABD demokrasisini yeniden inşa ederse ...
Kanada ve Avrupa ülkeleri ile ABD’nin uyumu ise Trump’ı daha az ilgilendiriyor. ABD'nin NATO'ya olan taahhütlerinden vazgeçme olasılığının da sinyalini veriyor (sadece birkaç yıl öncesinde bile düşünülemeyecek bir şey).
Örneğin Trump, Rusya'nın otokratik lideri Vladimir Putin ile iyi ilişkiler içinde kalmaya hevesli gözüküyor. Tarifeler ve çip savaşlarına rağmen, Trump Çin ile de fayda-maliyet odaklı yeni ve daha dostane bir ilişki kurabilir.
Trump halihazırda sadece Amerikan demokrasisine zarar vermekle kalmıyor, dünya düzenini de yeniden kurmaya çalışıyor. ABD demokratik olmayan, otoriter ülkelerle giderek daha fazla ittifak kurabilir.
Mevcut jeopolitik durumun Türkiye’ye heba etmemesi gereken yeni bir fırsat yaratıyor olması ise tüm bunları çok daha önemli kılıyor. Şu şekilde bakılabilir:
Demokrasinin bu durumu kendi başına dikkate değerdir. Ama belki de daha önemli olan, Gezi Parkı’ndan beri Türkiye'de ilk defa yaygın protestoların tetiklenmesidir.
Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'a meydan okuyan (ve belki de tahtından indirmesi muhtemel olan) İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediye Başkanı Ekrem İmamoğlu’nun, birçok kişinin inanmadığı suçlamalarla tutuklanmasından önce bile Türk demokrasisi hastaydı.
It remains unclear who will take the lead and whether this leader will be allowed to kickstart the necessary epochal transformation for the country’s future.
There is no guarantee that Turkey will take this path. If President Erdoğan does not attempt it (as is likely), Turkish politics will become more uncertain and more confrontational.
But the change in perspective and institutional approach that is required here may be more radical than trying to bring the Kurds into the fold (which the president is now attempting).
Who will take this path? President Erdoğan has proven over the last several decades that he can change with the times and opportunities (and can bring his base together when he makes such turnarounds).
It will require the population to see Europeans as partners (that of the open sequence nationalist fervor directed against all Western powers).
It will require its government to accept and even celebrate civil society activity and protests. It will require the country’s youth to build on its newfound, greatest enthusiasm for politics and become even more engaged in the country’s affairs.
Turkey needs to credibly signal to its European partners that it will try to reverse the downward slide of its democratic institutions (which has given the country the dubious achievement of being one of the worst performers, globally, in terms of worsening of democracy).
(Recall, in this context that, the most rapid period of productivity growth in Turkey's recent past, between 2002-2006, was in the context of the country’s EU accession talks). Yet, this path requires Turkey’s commitment to democracy.
European markets, European capital, and most importantly European technology and joint venture opportunities with European companies could substantially boost Turkey’s productivity potential.
Becoming part of the European Union and the European defense pact would be game changers for Turkey. The country’s economy has been struggling because of lackluster productivity growth since 2006, and consequently slow real wage growth, despite endemic poverty.
With rapid aging of European populations, the specter of more Turkish immigration to Europe may no longer be as daunting.
The European path is not a pie-in-the-sky. Turkey already has the second-largest ministry in NATO, and would be a crucial partner to Germany, France and other European countries in building a common defense.
In the context of these developments, Turkey will have a choice. It can remain outside of both blocks. It can cozy up to the US-Russia-China axis. Or it can become part of the European block.
The possibility of a new European block (perhaps joined by Canada), committed to liberal democracy and its own defense, is no longer unthinkable.
But so far, there is no guarantee that they will be able to do so. We should certainly not count on US institutions surviving intact for four more years.
This could all change, if Democrats take back the House of Representatives in the midterms in 2026 and slow down Trump’s attack on US institutions and efforts to remake the global order, and then when the 2028 presidential election to reverse their consequences and rebuild US democracy.
The countries that Trump seems less interested in aligning the US with are the European ones and Canada. He’s also signaling the possibility of the US reneging its commitments to NATO (something that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago).
The president is famously keen on staying in good terms with Russia’s autocratic leader Vladimir Putin. Despite all the talk of tariffs and chip wars, Trump could also form a new, and more friendly, transactional relationship with China.
It goes something like this. Trump is attempting to remake the world order, not just fundamentally damaging American democracy. The US is increasingly allying itself with nondemocratic, authoritarian countries.
What makes all of this so significant is that the current geopolitical situation has created a new opportunity for Turkey, which the country should not squander.
This by itself is noteworthy. It has become more so because it has also triggered widespread protests, which Turkey has not experienced since those surrounding the Gezi Park were put down.
Turkish democracy was ailing even before the main contender for challenging (and perhaps winning against) President Erdoğan, the Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested last week on charges that many are arguing to be trumped up.
Co-director @dacemoglumit.bsky.social argues that the rush toward achieving artificial general intelligence is a race in the wrong direction. "We should be using AI to make human talent more productive, more amplified, more valuable, more empowered, rather than trying to sideline it."
Much of what humans do is not about computation or collecting inputs to make optimal decisions; rather, it is about discovery – an experience that will become increasingly rare if all decisions are delegated to an AI agent, notes @dacemoglumit.bsky.social.
Co-director @dacemoglumit.bsky.social explains why he's concerned that AI could be used for "so-so automation," which displaces workers from tasks they used to perform without achieving productivity improvements or cost savings.
Co-director @dacemoglumit.bsky.social describes the through line between his Nobel-winning research and the work of our initiative. Institutions shape both the development of technology and the ability to tackle pressing societal challenges. Watch the full interview: youtu.be/2DLfaB8N8VE
In partnership with @schmidtsciences.bsky.social, @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social, David Autor and I are seeking funding proposals from researchers conducting innovative field experiments on the labor economics of frontier AI. Expressions of interest due March 31. shapingwork.mit.edu/call-for-pro...
If, as I hope, the US democracy survives and (somehow) recovers, then history books will judge those working with Trump and Republican lawmakers in the Senate and Congress enabling him harshly (and so should we). If US democracy does not survive, I don’t know what history books will be like.
Trump’s attack on US institutions, even if fully expected, is dispiriting, discombobulating and dangerous. In this very difficult time, we have to remember one thing: This is not normal, and it should not be normalized.
Dear followers, this op-ed is based on one of the speeches I gave at the Paris AI summit. Thank you. Will We Squander the AI Opportunity? by Daron Acemoglu - Project Syndicate www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...
Please see my op-ed, Big Tech’s AI Isn’t The Future Europe Needs in Le Grand Continent In French: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/1... In English: geopolitique.eu/en/2025/02/1...
Dear followers, please see my bad-case scenario for where the US economy may be heading in the Financial Times The real threat to American prosperity via @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/4e3f...
Whether near-term AGI is an achievable goal remains an open question (and whether it’s a desirable goal is even more questionable).
But ultimately, as noted above, these are known methods and making the training of these models cheaper is not miraculously going to get us to AGI in the next few years.
Finally, is DeepSeek taking us a step closer to imminent AGI? The company’s aspiration (like their American cousins) is AGI. Models that are cheaper to train and effectively using reinforcement learning could be game changers.
For example, if innovation in one country enables models that increase human productivity or help us regulate energy better, they would be beneficial to both countries, especially if they are widely diffused and used.
Neither of these two assumptions may be warranted (and more on AGI below). If these assumptions aren’t right, there are many areas in which the US and China can collaborate.
My interpretation here is that a complete zero-sum approach to China was unworkable and a mistake. Such an approach only makes sense if you believe (a) we are heading towards AGI; and (b) whoever gets to artificial general intelligence (AGI) first will have a huge geopolitical advantage.
I believe the answer to this is still unclear as well. DeepSeek trained their leading models, including V3 and R1, on older, less powerful chips. But they may need the best chips for the next advances and for scaling up.
Third, does this mean that the US approach of export controls and other methods to hold back Chinese AI research has already failed?
My interpretation is therefore that what we have witnessed is far from conclusive evidence that the Chinese model can outperform innovation in more open societies.
In some sense, the company may have been “under the radar”. Now that it is no longer so, will its creativity and dynamism continue?
Moreover, DeepSeek appears rather different from other Chinese AI firms, which often produce products and technologies for the government or with government funding. See, for example, davidyyang.com/pdfs/ai_draf... davidyyang.com/pdfs/govtvca...
Nevertheless, DeepSeek has combined them differently and very effectively. It remains to be seen whether Chinese firms and academia can really take the next step of coming up with game-changing techniques, products and approaches.
... and some like transformer models and chain-of-thought reasoning have been introduced and used in leading tech firms.
More importantly, all of the methods used by DeepSeek have been developed in the United States, some of which, such as mixture-of-experts models and reinforcement learning have been developed in academic research decades ago;
Nevertheless, I would like to point out that DeepSeek is building on years of advances in the US (and some in Europe).
My bias here is to think that innovation is hampered by top-down control, as James Robinson and I have argued in Why Nations Fail: amazon.com/Why-Nations-..., and also in The Narrow Corridor, amazon.com/Narrow-Corri... But I admit there is this possibility now. We will just have to see.
If so, does this mean that innovation under authoritarian, top-down institutions (or what James Robinson and I have called “extractive institutions), can equal or exceed more bottom-up innovation?
Second, is this episode proof that China has leapfrogged or is at the cusp of leapfrogging the United States?
Could developing these models in a more “pro-human direction” be one of these things that is promising but completely and collectively ignored by the industry?
So, put differently, the first key question triggered by this episode is: are there other even more important things to which the US industry is blind to?
By the way, this type of “groupthink”, combined with hype, is what Simon Johnson and I predicted in Power and Progress, written before the generative AI saga began: amazon.com/Power-Progre...
One interpretation therefore is that the US industry was blind to alternative, cheaper and more promising approaches.
As widely reported, it has also done so at a fraction of the cost of the models of leading companies, about $5.5 million, as compared to sums running into hundreds of millions of dollars for the leading models.
While DeepSeek is not reinventing the wheel and is broadly within the same agenda, it appears to have relied much more heavily on reinforcement learning and mixture-of-experts methods and refined chain-of-thought reasoning very effectively.
These companies are unwilling to consider different approaches than foundation models pre-trained as next word predictors on massive data sets, and, for the most part, anything other than diffusion models and chatbots aimed at performing human tasks.
To the best of my understanding, all of the leading companies are following essentially the same playbook (with the small difference that Meta is partially open source).
For a long time, a number of commentators (including myself) have questioned the direction of AI investment and development in the US tech industry.
First, perhaps the most important question is this: does DeepSeek’s success mean that the US tech industry was approaching the problem the wrong way? US AI investment is massive. Goldman Sachs estimates that the tech sector is set to spend $1 trillion: goldmansachs.com/insights/art...
Some questions triggered by the release of DeepSeek R1 on January 20. These are formulated as questions, because I do not know the answers and it may well be that most of these answers are only things we can find out over time.
Join me live with @projectsyndicate.bsky.social at the #AIActionSummit on February 10. Register now at the link to watch. #PSEvents events.project-syndicate.org/event/ai-act...
This not only creates a Catch-22 (we need democracy to redirect AI, but AI has already damaged democracies) it also suggests that redirecting AI will be very difficult. But I still believe it’s not completely hopeless.
Second, the current ethos in the AI sector is quite anti-democratic, with leading technologists and entrepreneurs believing that experts (themselves) should be empowered to make all key decisions and democratic processes get in the way of the necessary AI acceleration.