Job growth has been essentially zero since January in industries that rely more on immigrants.
Director, Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/people/david-wessel/
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Job growth has been essentially zero since January in industries that rely more on immigrants.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
UK Housing Secretary Rayner paid £30,000 stamp duty on the purchase of £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex, instead of the £70,000 that would have been required had the flat been deemed a second property. She resigns. on.ft.com/3VFWzAF
See if you can spot a trend. (HT @byheatherlong.bsky.social)
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000, and the change for July was revised up by 6,000, from +73,000 to +79,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
ProPublica finds three Trump cabinet secretaries have more than one "primary residence" mortgages. www.propublica.org/article/trum...
Pete Hegseth shares Fox News report: White House set to rename the Department of Defense as the Department of War.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Pleased to be hosting the launch of this year's Geneva Report: Are geopolitics leading to fragmentation of the international financial system? Oct 14, 10 AM EDT, Hutchins Center @brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/events/are-g...
Michael D Bordo & Robert N McCauley warn the US Senate Banking Cmte against confirming politicised Fed appointees. What's on their agenda later today? Oh, Stephen Miran up for a confirmation hearing. on.ft.com/3JJ54sh
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
The Earned Income Tax Credit at 50: Past, present, and future. summary of a Hutchins Center @brookings.edu conference with academic and government experts. www.brookings.edu/articles/the... #econsky
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Baltimore Museum of Art to exhibit Amy Sherald exhibit that she pulled from the National Portrait Gallery, saying that museum officials had tried to censor her work. www.washingtonpost.com/entertainmen...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
actually there is this footnote which i missed on first reading
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
The Earned Income Tax Credit at 50: Past, present, and future. summary of a Hutchins Center @brookings.edu conference www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
I have now lived a long and full life, with a Republican Treasury Secretary saying that adding a national sales tax -- imposed on an odd assortment of goods -- *raises* economic growth. Can't wait to raise other taxes to raise growth further. Or to double tariffs so we can double growth.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Lisa Cook's latest court filing. (Still no explanation of the underlying issue on her mortgages) storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (voting member of FOMC this year) at Hutchins Center @brookings.edu on Sept 22, a few days after the FOMC meeting. In-person (registration required) and streaming. www.brookings.edu/events/alber...
Had a good run, though. 🤡
ii. This isn't a UK specific thing. The ultra long end of the curve has been rising in most developed economies. It's somewhat notable that 30yr Gilt yields have risen more than Treasury yields recently, but divergent expectations about monetary policy have probably played a role here.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
75% of those polled think Trump's tariffs will raise consumer goods prices, 50% think they'll boost manufacturing activity in the US, and 40% think it'll increase the number of jobs in the US.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
Half those polled say they are not confident Social Security and Medicare will be there when they need them.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
WSJ/NORC poll: 78% say they aren't confident their children's generation will live better than their's. Same as in 2024 and 2023 polls. www.wsj.com/economy/wsj-...
Enormous impoundment-related changes in Trump/Vought's Circular A-11 update from Friday, which is OMB's guidance to agencies They: -removed the definition of impoundment -said GAO's impoundment determinations don't matter -claimed pocket rescission authority -claimed profound deferral authority 🧵
A half-dozen hardware stores in the District say they're either out of D.C. flags or have struggled to keep them in stock as D.C. residents stock up in response to President Donald Trump’s crackdown in the city.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
my point is that at least one mainstream media outlet -- @ws.com -- did report on biden's age in 2024
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
WSJ. June 2024. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Patrick Henry expressed concern that the President “may easily become king,” James Madison replied that this would not occur because “[t]he purse is in the hands of the representatives of the people.” Full Henry quote on "you Senate" below: teachingamericanhistory.org/document/pat...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Headline of the day. NYTimes not NY Post: Vax Quack Lacks Facts www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/o...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
7-4 decision. Tariffs remain in place for now
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
Big tariff news! "Because we agree that IEEPA’s grant of presidential authority to 'regulate' imports does not authorize the tariffs imposed by the Executive Orders, we affirm."
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
UPDATED Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state, federal fiscal policy shaved 0.4 percentage points off US GDP growth in Q2. www.brookings.edu/articles/hut... @brookings.edu
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Anna Bower of Lawfare with the play by play on today's Lisa Cook hearing
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
Waller says (but doesn't note that advisory committees have been disbanded): BLS and other agencies that collect economic data have benefited from expert committees of outside advisers who have provided advice on ways to improve data quality.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
Also, "cause" is whatever the president says it is
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
Trump administration response to Cook suit: After Pulte tweets, Cook offered no defense to the charges—not in public or in private storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Fed does not intend to offer arguments concerning Cook’s motion. At this time, the Board merely expresses (1) its interest in a prompt ruling by Court to remove existing cloud of uncertainty; and (2) intent to follow any order Court issues. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
The #Fed does listen: How it revised the monetary policy framework and why. www.brookings.edu/articles/the... via @brookings.edu Hutchins Center (me) #econsky
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
More Waller: Fed staff maintain measure with ADP (covers 20% of US private workforce). In weeks after the July jobs report's reference period, preliminary estimates from ADP show continued deterioration in job market.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Fed's Waller: "After accounting for these revisions and what we will learn in a couple of weeks, the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank over those three months." www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
They're now saying it out loud: The Administration's goal is to undo the political independence that Congress granted the Fed, so that the President can directly set rates.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
The Fed does listen: How it revised its monetary policy framework and why. www.brookings.edu/articles/the... via Hutchins Center (me) @brookings.edu
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
"Warnings From Weimar. Why Bargaining With Authoritarians Fails." Compelling piece by Daniel Ziblatt in Foreign Affairs. www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
It's hard to keep up with Trump so we've compiled a list of websites tracking Trump’s actions on tariffs, regulations, the environment, immigration, and more. @brookings.edu Hutchins Center www.brookings.edu/articles/tra...
JUST IN: Judge COBB has set a 10am hearing for *tomorrow* on the emergency bid by Lisa Cook to remain in her job at the Fed.
“The fact is, printing newspapers and putting them in trucks and driving them around and delivering them on people’s front stoops has not been the most effective way to distribute the news in a very long time,” he said. @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/b...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Here's the full text of the Lisa Cook court filing. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
The lawsuit did not provide an explanation for why Cook listed two residences as her primary residence. It instead sought to paint the firing as purely political and not based on anything other than a desire to oust a governor who was not falling in line with the president’s directives on rates
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
It's hard to keep up with Trump so we've compiled al list of the websites tracking Trump’s actions on tariffs, the environment, immigration, and more www.brookings.edu/articles/tra... Hutchins Center @brookings.edu
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Jon Faust: As the heat around Fed independence rises, can we rest easy in the knowledge that before it is too late, the bond vigilantes will jump into action and work their magic? The market’s blasé response to the attempted firing of Cook does not inspire confidence. krieger.jhu.edu/financial-ec...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Janet Yellen weighs in: Trump’s claim that he has “fired” Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook “for cause” is not only unlawful. It is profoundly dangerous. on.ft.com/3UKtLa1
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
But the painting has disappeared — again! www.jta.org/2025/08/26/c...
National Guard soldiers called into service for President Trump's law enforcement surge in D.C. have been assigned to spread mulch at federal monuments. Normally the Park Service does that, but the administration laid off the workers. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
More than 80 years after it was looted by the Nazis from a Jewish art dealer in Amsterdam, a portrait by an Italian master has been spotted on the website of an estate agent advertising a house for sale in Argentina. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
US Treasury yield curve today vs a year-ago. (via @wsj.com )
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
FT editorial: Investors show signs of being lulled into a false sense of security. Fed’s independence weakened under Trump. Direction of travel under his presidency is clear. The move against Cook shows that his administration will leave no stone unturned www.ft.com/content/e696...
Undermining the Fed to get lower rates now is like ripping the batteries out of your smoke alarm because it’s beeping. It’s quiet for a bit. Then your house burns down. Credibility anchors expectations; expectations anchor inflation.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
In 2025, US spending on data center construction — not including the cost of all the technology they house — will exceed investment in traditional office buildings, according to the Dodge Construction Network. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/b...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Editorial page of @wsj.com: "Trump is all about short-term tactics and personal political advantage. Institutional integrity bores him. But if he succeeds in taking over the Fed, he and Republicans will own the results and whatever inflation returns." www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Bill Dudley: Markets are too complacent. Even if Trump stands only a small chance of taking control of the Fed, the effort itself is disruptive and the consequences of success would be dire. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Greg Ip of @wsj.com: Fasten your seatbelts. Markets haven’t yet grappled with the implications of the president having control over the Fed. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Joined Lael Brainard on tonight's PBS @newshour.bsky.social to talk about the Lisa Cook drama. youtu.be/APai6sd-iO8?...
The Trump Administration’s irrational dislike of solar and wind energy imperils both the environment and the economy, @billmckibben.bsky.social writes.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Bob Poole of Reason Foundation says a couple of changes to the tax laws could make privatizing airports a lot easier. via Hutchins Center @brookings.edu and AE/I. www.brookings.edu/articles/inc...
The cruelty is really the point.
The outrageous stupidity is outweighed only by the gratuitous cruelty. Read this. www.masslive.com/news/2025/08...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Nick Timiraos dispatch from Fed's Jackson Hole conclave: "Institutional survival became the unmistakable and pervasive undercurrent at what is normally a staid academic gathering." www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
The Declaration of Independence: "He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance. He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures." www.archives.gov/founding-doc...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
That is not New Haven pizza
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Move over Federal Reserve. It's the Bundesbank's turn to draw fire for a costly building renovation. on.ft.com/477Dtuo
“Freedom is a fragile thing and it's never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by way of inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation.” — Ronald Reagan, Inaugural Address as CA Governor, Jan. 5, 1967. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Agreed. The long lived effects of Trump will be to reduce US productivity growth (below what it could would otherwise have been) for decades.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Terrific @wsj.com diagnosis of the European economy and a bleak prognosis by David Luhnow and Tom Fairless. www.wsj.com/world/europe...
They keep coming up with new ways to tank the economy. There was already a truck driver shortage and now this. I guess if they cause enough inflation Powell will have to lower interest rates.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Details and FAQ on new Fed framework www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
What are Federal Reserve swap lines with foreign central banks? Hutchins Center Explains. By Tristan Loa www.brookings.edu/articles/wha... @brookings.edu
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
CNBC finds substantial doubts about continued Fed independence from the White House in the post-Powell era. www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/h...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
Here's the URL for the CNBC survey: www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/h...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Hassett likely to be Trump's pick for Fed chief, though Warsh is more qualified, CNBC survey finds
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
FOMC minutes: Fed staff inflation projection in July slightly lower than June; downward revision to assumed effects of tariffs on imported goods prices. Tariffs expected to raise inflation in 2025, further upward pressure on inflation in 2026; then projected to decline to 2% by 2027.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
More Bowman: Fed staff should be allowed to own small amounts of crypto so they understand its functionality. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
Bowman: We are at the beginning of...a seismic shift in the way we think about money, value & the fabric of our financial system. This shift is not just about incremental changes or tweaks...What we are witnessing has potential to fundamentally transform way we live, work & interact in society.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
The other Jackson Hole conclave: SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Fed govs Waller and Bowman attend the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium at the Four Seasons hotel in Jackson Hole. on.ft.com/41hIf4S
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Charlie Plosser, Philadelphia Fed president 2006-2015, died Aug 14. www.policymap.com/embed/widget...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Novogradac posts a tool that shows Census tracts that, based on the most recent available data, are likely to be eligible/ineligible for designation as #opportunityzones during the designation period scheduled to begin on July 1, 2026 www.novoco.com/resource-cen...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Talked about the Fed, Jackson Hole, etc. on Barron's Live podcast. Listen here: www.barrons.com/podcasts/bar...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Countering @wsj editorial www.ahip.org/news/article...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Goldman: Q3 US GDP tracking estimate at +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.3%.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
So that’s what they do in August in Europe
Important piece from Andreas Georgiou on what happens when a country undermines the independence of its economic statistics. He should know: He was criminally prosecuted in Greece for reporting accurate deficit figures. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/o... #EconSky
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
A tale of two "Communist" countries: Cuba & Vietnam. A crowdfunding campaign for Cuba led by the Central Committee of Vietnam Red Cross Society raised more than $13 million in the first week — far more than organizers had expected for the entire two-month effort. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/w...
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
This is an undercovered (and cruel) element of the OBBBA www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/...
This behavior is indistinguishable from the worst secret polices of fascist regimes of the 20th century.
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
Congrats to Gavin Newsom's media team
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social)
www.washingtonpost.com/doonesbury/
David Wessel (@davidmwessel.bsky.social) reply parent
Yes!! We do too