EuroNATO is where we seem to be headed. Potentially best of a lot of bad options. US remains… just about… with credibility of security guarantee virtually absent… Europe needs to mobilise quickly. EU/NATO collaboration central.
Frankfurt am Main, Brit, Scot, German. Controller, coffee drinker, father of two, trying to get back into swimming (again!) Wish my German was better.
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EuroNATO is where we seem to be headed. Potentially best of a lot of bad options. US remains… just about… with credibility of security guarantee virtually absent… Europe needs to mobilise quickly. EU/NATO collaboration central.
Decisions. Decisions. Pay Trump or lose revenues from boycotts are now known potential outcomes. Maybe outlets that stand up to Trump might even be able to gain revenues...
To be fair - that's a good response!
A poor workman blames his tools.
weak PMIs for France, Germany strong PMI for Services, Eurozone overall in-line with expectations. UK miss on both Manufacturing and Services, has lowered bond yields a couple of basis points:
There are those that have been educated to believe that government is worse than useless - so cutting is always beneficial. How can you have a government that doesn't believe in its own efficacy? Performance is not about doing things but by being seen to be good regardless of any task.
The murder of Horst Wessel and the birth of A martyr; a sacrifice for the re-birth of a nation. A nation ‘returning itself to glory’. It’s all happened before.
Trump needing to increase tariffs to support peso...
interesting bit in a Lancet article re: Australia's teen social media ban: surprisingly the amount of socialising in person hasn't dropped significantly in the past 25 years, and certainly not by the average amount of social media use.
Where the teens are YouTube 90% TikTok 63% Instagram 61% Snapchat 55% Facebook 32% (down from 71%) WhatsApp 23% X 17% (down from 33%) Reddit 14% Threads 6% report: www.pewresearch.org/internet/202...
Missing one big prop and maybe a second big prop for the bench.
Maybe they should rescue the universities for the companies around them to access research and graduate labour?
There is a certain level of luxury in taking a taxi and it's probably related to having a driver. Take that away and more people just turn to public transport?
I wish Argentina all the best. But bringing down inflation with FX intervention was always a temporary game. European politicians jumping on the early innings of a reform programme of a country that, unlike theirs, has gone bust many times was just a bit foolish and wild.
Winds of change! 😉
I want to have a coffee in a cafe whilst watching the rain come down.
"The tariffs are bringing in enough to offset the budget deficit!" "Let's get tariffs on services by putting 100k on H1B visas entering the country! That will do it!"
i don’t think people on bluesky understand the severity of this situation. i woke up to literally hundreds of texts from friends and family thinking about either moving back home to india or applying to other countries for jobs. this includes me.
One frustration is the constant taking of one event and projecting it forever forward. Such as the re integration of China and Eastern Europe into the global economy; first rising population and then demographic decline; or the ability to run austerity/libertarian economic policies.
"I am telling you! He's a martyr! If I need to put up a statue on every street corner until you accept that, I will!"
GW Bush going into Iraq to finish off what his dad didn't. Trump going into Afghanistan because Biden pulled out. Tragic!
"All my life..."
This probably is the main reason why haggis consumption has increased!
Reminder: The existence of these in most Scottish supermarkets and corner shops is proof that anyone shilling for the notion that multiculturalism can't work on this island is a charlatan
Then it'll be praise Vance or Miller...
What would be the fallout for the City of London if New York would stop being an international banking hub? Or would it benefit? If dollar lost its privilege (without any other currency taking mantle of global currency), how would that impact? Compare and contrast with Ireland (Pharma and Apple).
Yes but populations are declining so denominator is helping. Spain is impressive!
Putin was able to offset economic damage from repression with oil and natural resource revenue. USA is going to struggle to manage the same trick.
It may have to increase supply to offset increased demand.
There just feels like there is too much money in the system (especially with US seeking to contract). Pressure is so high that leaks are happening.
a hungry winter is coming prospect.org/health/2025-...
Yes
Dreams of yesterday...
That said, the retreat of US brands from global markets will create opportunities.
How European car makers compete in the rest of the world though is not just about tech, cost and branding but also geopolitics. Europe needs to build the networks in these overseas markets versus the Chinese. This will be a real battle.
The goal should be survival. But worth bearing in mind that China was always going to develop its own car industry and catch up with the technology. Losing market share in China was probably inevitable as this tech leap occurred. EU can and should protect its own market.
Industrial production up by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU Up by 1.8% in both the euro area and the EU compared with July 2024 ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
I was thinking more along the lines of defendable borders (mountain ranges, major rivers, etc), access to raw materials, access to ports, etc.
If the US were to splinter into various different political entities, how viable would they be as stand alone countries? Or would there be a natural reestablishment of a single state.
Significant challenges remain Russian war with Ukraine and Europe as well as Chinese deflationary pressures from its own lack of consumption/supply overcapacity.
How does the EU shield itself from this? Advantages will be in US migration (brain gain) to Europe, exports to US (offset by weak USD) and increased strength of Euro as USD weakens (allows for more investment).
If AI and data centers are the main driver of investment, who are they selling to if the rest of the economy is down?
Foreign student numbers are down. Manufacturing is down. Imports are more expensive due to tariffs. You would expect to see deficits increasing significantly in this policy mix.
To my mind, the 3 largest exports from the US were always defence, pharma and food. Trump has killed the Chinese market for food and farmers are struggling. He is killing the defence market as fewer countries trust US and RFK is killing the pharma. What will US export next?
The Caspian Sea is disappearing fast – and it’s pitting people against nature.
“.. Virtually all major grocery categories are now more expensive than they were a year ago, some substantially so.” @axios.com #ICYMI www.axios.com/2025/09/11/t...
"A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a hundred men with guns"
Blog: US Funding of International Organizations Has Collapsed With weeks left in FY, US has paid zero toward assessed (membership) contributions to WHO, WTO, FAO, ILO, UNESCO, NATO, OECD, WMO, WIPO & more. FY26 budget suggests paying dues to only 7 out of 46 organizations under the IO account.
“.. America’s trucking companies are battling one of the longest freight slowdowns executives can remember. “.. ‘When you start seeing those guys go out of business, that’s a barometer of the health of logistics in America.’” @crampell.bsky.social @wsj.com www.wsj.com/articles/cal...
Did they just register a bunch of stock as demo and courtesy cars?!
Need Starlink for Ukraine?
People imagined that we were in a post political world - a world where there was a right to humanitarian intervention and that the market would resolve all problems. Politics has once again taken front and centre.
I once read a history of the Mediterranean and on a few occasions when a society decided to implode against its minorities, the places that accepted the refugees (often skilled Jews) did very well economically in the following years. As the US goes through this, where will the economic migrants go?
Hang on, I thought the exodus of non-doms had turned the City of London into a wasteland.... www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
When people write that capitalism is to blame for something, how often do they just actually mean society as it currently exists? I suppose anti capitalism is easier than anti society as a label.
How likely is it that there is the levels of starvation increase in the USA as a result of Trump's policies? With negative metrics being discounted by the administration, will we still witness increase in food banks, poor school attendance and rise in bankruptcies as people become unable to work?
Building on this theme, despite strenuous efforts by Right-leaning commentators to claim that the AfD is the party of German youth, in North Rhine Westphalia among under-25s it sits well behind the CDU, SPD, Hard Left Linke and the Greens Linke in particular are building momentum among young voters
As the weather gets colder, entering that lake swim for next Saturday seems like it could have been a bad idea...
Panthers looking strong as well.
An admission to the weakness of the systems beneath them.
By taking on the radical left, they will leave themselves and society even more open to attacked from people on the Right lashing out from imagined betrayals and an economy going into reverse.
I am afraid that I would only have my own personal experience. That experience is now so dated as to not consider current costs and job markets. As a Scot that left school at 17, we were incredibly young for anything. Some transition help is needed for adulthood. Uni help me for that.
As far as the Anglo consensus is concerned, Spain's assertive centre-left government has done everything wrong: Keynesian, redistributive, socially open, net-zero-friendly, multilateralist, Trump-sceptical. Yet the governing PSOE just hit 33% in latest CIS poll, above even its 2023 election win.
I wonder what happens to the Charlie Kirk story if it turns out that he was killed by a Trump voter feeling betrayed. Does everything go quiet and we just need to forget the last 24 hours?
Thanks very much for participating ladies and gentlemen, the Event of Noticing has now come to an end. Please do not continue to notice things about the British establishment, they will not be Noticed and your mobile provider may still charge you. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz...
Just thinking that Trump's teams are suppressing bad news that they will be shocked when the public starts kicking back. This will not be fun.
Does Mandelson need to be replaced now?!
Paradox is dropping the numbers within migrant communities makes the underlying causes worse.
Populist politicians would dearly love to deport large sections of the population that don't confirm to the ideal of the national ethnic. Asylum seekers are a fraction of that number. Underlying causes relates to cost of living, debt and inequality.
Macroeconomically, this is where the bailouts from the GFC take us. Thankfully, the bank balance sheets are looking alright. The danger is in the hedge funds. The AI bubble is only the mechanism.
A summary: UK - despite having a lack of investment and an inappropriate tax regime, changing governments has allowed incremental improvements as politicians are not actively against the state. Further fixing the tax regime and the level at which decisions are made still required.
Just 12 months ago, most countries were jealous of US economic growth.
It feels that that year was a big catch up year and not in line with underlying trend
90s false nostalgia...
Has someone calculated either a) the required food inflation or b) US farm subsidies to keep US farmers afloat and producing in an environment that US tariffs remain as they are now and ICE deportations continue as now?
More tax auditors! Close tax loopholes!
We are just the only country stupid enough to discuss "black holes" every time yields rise 10bps
Of course, this is also just the formal economy. ICE raids scaring off undocumented workers included?
I wonder how much this idea just needs the right marketing?! 😉 That said, aren't we admitting that certain jobs that are low paid have a high social value? Maybe we could instead try and fix that.
2 very different games. Football can pass the ball accurately much further and in any direction. Offside rules completely different. Ball in play for almost double the time in football than rugby.
Hopefully, this will increase tax audits for property purchases so that we can claw back the tax money needed to invest in NHS, education and transport infrastructure!
You seem to be pushing a principles based versus a rules based order. Principles based always seem hard to set up as states don't like devolving the power to such institutions. The question is always who regulates the regulator. That said, I am generally in favour of principles based approach.
Dog catches car...
Some new RWC stats from World Rugby, as relayed by David Pembroke on Rugby Unity - 410,000 tickets sold - over 205 million video views on social media - of spectators surveyed at RWC matches, 30% had never been to a women's rugby match before - 90% of fans say they will come back ...
The bipartisan Restore Trust in Congress Act is a necessary step to ban Members of Congress and their families from engaging in insider trading. It is time to pass this bill and make it clear to the American people that their elected officials put them first.
U.S.W.A - United States of Western America
Sponsored by Vaselin!
Cancelling the trip to Disney...
German schools just implemented this. I think that this is a good thing. But it doesn't stop usage outside of school.
In and of itself, it's not a problem. But the current system of taxes, pensions, investment, debt (public and private) etc has been set up to require growth and a good chunk of that comes from population growth. The system needs reconfigured. There is no vision of what that should even look like!
It's getting past the point (if we are not already far past) that we can forget. We have pushed the problem away for too long.
The Trump Admin is become increasingly erratic and violent - maybe sensing its own vulnerabilities and lashing out. It will not be forgotten by its neighbors, allies and partners that have been hurt in the process. Scarily, this is only month 8!
If X is simply going to protect & defend criminal hate crimes - routinely and predictably - it needs to face a threat of closure until Elon Musk is prepared to bring his lawless site within the law And a democratic govt should say & do something about the de facto legalisation of racial hatred
If I were a Governor, I would be trying to get onside all military, police and other forces within my State. (This is probably already happened if the Governor is half competent).
BREAKING: Gov. JB Pritzker says the Trump administration has sent the Texas National Guard to Great Lakes Naval Base outside Chicago, awaiting orders to deploy to Chicago. Trump administration officials will target Mexican Independence Day (Sept. 16) celebrations. @wttw.bsky.social
Worth keeping in mind that the US might not be the only potential trigger of the next global financial crisis www.nytimes.com/2025/09/02/b...
