i run a data-driven website about politics called Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe wrote a book by the same name: wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers part-time pollster formerly @ 538 & The Economist. community gardener
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question for DC-area people: i have been working with an online biz startup service that doesn’t fit our needs anymore (we are growing and need a real person!) please DM me if you know a good local startup lawyer, ++ if they know digital media/services
working on a bigger project thinking up some new standardized questions for the modern party cutting lines
crash course on... statistical modeling? that's a whole field!!
note our main aggregator is an extension of jackman's methods, with additional random effects and regularized daily innovations
what does my audience here on bluesky want more of?
non-zero chance X and TikTok swung the 2024 election; zero chance Bluesky did
big piece on AI "polling" coming out at gelliottmorris.com tomorrow!
You can read a whole book about it if you like. @sgadarian.bsky.social @saragoodman.bsky.social and I took notes as it was happening, and we tell the story straight. No bullshit, no dissembling. press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
these people spent the past five years railing against biden and democrats re: covid, and furthering narratives the right-wing information ecosystem weaponized against harris. now they are lamenting the decline of gov institutions and saying "oh I didn't *vote* for trump." bless your heart!
I just think that the proportion of tweets you send about the impending doom of electoral democracy vs how much blue sky and progressives suck is very telling of one’s priorities, and from the outside you gotta wonder about the incentives and incidences that landed one at said ratio
a very high proportion of centrist punditry now just boils down to "progressives yell at me on the internet and i don't like it." you would think that getting paid millions of dollars per year would give you thicker skin
crowdsourced estimates of today's protests are definitely on the lower side. but there are not zero, so seems like there should be coverage of them like... somewhere in the national press?
<3
Wow!
I’m eyeing up his antlers
look who decided to sit outside my front door and eat all my flowers today
this graph (from Gallup) strikes me as totally incompatible with a functioning democracy
for sure
seems likely now that trump is going to send ice/national guard/etc to blue cities before the election this year, making up some risk of mass protest or public disturbance etc — or “ballots from illegals” — that constitutes some BS emergency that will empower him before a judge can intervene
My weekly roundup of fresh polling and political data, with some commentary on the elevating gerrymandering wars and urgent need for proportional representation: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/voters-are...
brunonians!
Warnings From Weimar www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/hitl...
Here's my Friday post: - U.S. voters say that crime is a serious problem, esp. in big cities. - But they do not approve of Trump exerting federal control over local police departments. - Latest example of the president moving the policy thermostat too far. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/voters-say...
401KKK
me to linkedin: find me data science freelance jobs please linkedin: i have found no data science jobs. but can i interest you in some fascism?
According to the voter file company L2, there are more Democrats in Texas than Republicans. Does that mean Texas is actually a blue state?
Democrats are up 3.5 points in our average of U.S. House generic ballot polls. That would be enough to overcome the effects of additional partisan gerrymandering in red states www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
I was thinking about Erdogan, but Trump is even less popular than him
possible by oct 2026 that inflation is above 5%, we're in a jobs recession, the president's approval is at 35-40%, and people will be losing their health care and food benefits... i don't think this will go how he thinks it will go
every day there is a new example of democracy eroding from the top. that is generally how it goes bsky.app/profile/gell...
the alt national parks "number" is not a count or an estimate. it's a bullshit number they posted to gin up social media clicks
I could go on but I need to stop here (other things to get done this morning). Point is, in many ways Trump 2 is worse than Trump 1, and violations of regular political rules and dismantling of institutions threaten the future of democracy in America. 2026 will be a test of our republic
- trying to (and in many cases succeeding at) firing heads of independent agencies - often for the purpose of installing partisan loyalists who will manufacture the president's preferred policies or information, for partisan reasons - again, saying he's a dictator
- gov now taking stakes in corporations friendly to the regime - rules of elections threatened in order to confer increased partisan advantage on party in power (mail voting) - federal pardons have been extended to criminal participants in a recent self-coup - says victories by opponents are fraud
- gov is selectively prosecuting the president's political enemies - including law enforcement raids on old foes not in govt for half a decade - president says political enemies are vermin and should be imprisoned/removed from country - gov threatens legal & financial infrastructure of opposition
- president says he will be a dictator to lower crime - president says he will run for a third term/stay in office - party of president is making changes to electoral maps mid-cycle to confer partisan advantage in next election - taxpayer money is being directed to partisan corporate allies
- white house attacks free press while favoring aligned sources - gov is scapegoating minorities and deploying militarized police domestically, during peacetime - vp/pres threatening jailtime for political opponents, for no apparent crime - purges of all gov employees who are not committed partisans
over the last week, several political scientists i trust have declared trump a dictator and that america is not a full functioning democracy anymore. see here: goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/where-we-a... donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-author... i think making a list clarifies this:
apologies, it's august. don't schedule posts at 1am folks
September Strength In Numbers subscriber Q&A: Is Texas actually a blue state? How do Americans feel about sending the National Guard into cities? Does passing unpopular laws even matter anymore? And what's up with the "pollster" Rasmussen Reports? + more www.gelliottmorris.com/p/is-texas-a...
thanks boss
"Researcher who has distorted voter data appointed to Homeland Security election integrity role" www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...
signal boosting!
Long-term, the party's problem is that rural voters have more power than urban voters. Nationalization is killing Dems. A better idea would be for the DNC to host 9 smaller regional conventions so that eg MT Dems can distinguish themselves from DC/NYC etc. Parties used to be more local/regional
nfl streaming is getting so fucked up, almost not even worth it to try www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfqW...
we had a good run folks
i have never tried this and i wouldn't think the sample sizes are enough
Open to suggestions for making this chart more readable
Good post on campaigning on affordability
Democrats flipped a Trump +11 state legislative seat in an Iowa special election last night. Is an agenda surrounding affordability the key for Democrats in 2026/28? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrat-f...
This is a good way to ask the question. VSG polled party lists in 2018 and, IIRC, they didn’t do as well.
thanks
can probably do that for Sept. We asked in May and I've been waiting for an opportunity to revisit
There is no political downside to opposing authoritarianism.
sure, which issues? same battery?
One question that clarifies the present moment: If Victor Orban were President of the United States, what would he be doing differently from Trump? goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/where-we-a...
depends on how many people ask for it!
i keep telling y'all to subscribe to the newsletter and you keep asking questions I answered months ago www.gelliottmorris.com/i/169629186/...
Americans broadly hate all of this, and we all gotta remember that when it feels like things are spinning out of control
i think we're going to add RV breakdowns closer to the election
it's adults
Promising support for proportional representation in our new poll. Could approximate with multi-member districts by a simple act of Congress. 9-in-10 adults say that fair elections are more important to them than their party winning (higher than I expected tbh) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
yes, if dems win by 8 points, they certainly win the house majority www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-will-r... uncertainty is over whether those elections are conducted freely and fairly...
LOTS of great insights from @gelliottmorris.com in new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. Democrats hold 49-41 lead on House generic ballot as Trump is underwater on nearly every issue, including -3 on crime/criminal safety.
Even more in the online article + poll toplines. Subscribe to Strength In Numbers and suggest your own topic for next month's survey! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
Most voters also say that single-member districts are unfair to the minority party in deep red/blue states. We asked if voters would support a system that allocated House seats by party proportional to the share of the vote they win statewide, and 46% said yes (27% no).
On gerrymandering, 45% say gerrymandering is a big problem, and 56% support a national requirement for independent redistricting commissions. 53% would still back fair maps even if their party loses seats, and 89% say free and fair elections are more important than their party winning elections.
On the economy, vibes are bleak. 22% of adults say their own finances are better than a year ago, and 50% say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse off. Tariffs are unpopular (36 support / 56 oppose) 54% say it's not worth it to raise prices even if manufacturing jobs come back (they aren't).
This month, a subscriber suggested replicating a finding from a Quinnipiac University poll on immigration. We asked U.S. adults if they'd prefer a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants or mass deportations, IF they had to pick one. We got a 60-40 split in favor of a path to legal status.
Here's what those issue trends look like over time. Note the drop and persistent unpopularity on inflation, immigration, and trade. And you can see that first point for crime in August. After a positive trend from May to August on the economy, Trump fell back to -13 this month.
Here's Trump's approval rating by issue. This month, we added "Crime and public safety" to the battery. it's one of Trump's better issues, but he's still underwater (-3) on it with 48% of adults opposed. Trump remains unpopular on every issue except border security, including deportations and trade.
Here's the House generic ballot trend. Dems are up 8, which is the same as our June poll and statistically insignificant rise for Dems since July. Since May, we have found a public opposed to Trump's policies and a solid Dem lead on the House popular vote.
Thanks to our partner @verasight.bsky.social for questionnaire help, sample design, fielding, and weighting. The Strength In Numbers poll has a hard church-state wall between editorial operations and the poll itself, ensuring neutrality in operation while preserving independent, honest coverage.
NEW Aug. Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats up 8 pts on the U.S. House generic ballot (49-41), Trump at 41% approval (-15). Most voters say gerrymandering is a problem, and support natl law for redistricting commissions and proportional rep'n.🧵 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
read trump's new executive order on domestic military dplymt + vigilante "portal." one of the reasons i am happy to be an independent journalist is so I can say that this is crazy, fascist, brownshirts shit without getting pulled into a meeting with PR for "opening us up to criticism from the right"
Paid subscriber here..Best money spent for so much data....
we have revenue and growth benchmarks for the point at which we can take the hit on losing the recommendation network, but for now the upside is simply too large
Strength In Numbers is growing. We are a top 100 in US politics publication, and growing faster than many other big sites. Very happy for everyone supporting us and saying (ahem) that there is strength in numbers... humbled and honored
well deserved @jamellebouie.net
Regarding the liberal fantasy of saving X by posting on it more — @pbump.com has it exactly right www.pbump.net/o/the-power-...
plus my favorite question, from @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
New Strength In Numbers/ @verasight.bsky.social national poll coming out tomorrow at 8AM ET. We have numbers on the generic ballot, gerrymandering, Trump's handling of crime + other issues, I hope you will set aside some time to read it. Subscribe to get it in your inbox: www.gelliottmorris.com
voting for trump got you... - higher prices on many/most goods - big manufacturing job losses - feds deploying military into the streets - the state "taking stakes in" the means of production - natl policy carveouts for gov's allies what would the 2010 tea party say?
autumn harvest (mostly carrots) planted + shot of my farmhand. (i’m saving up to replace the rotten middle bed)
If Californians approve their governor’s retaliatory gerrymander this November, Democrats will need to win the House popular vote by 0-1.5 points next year to win a majority of seats. Definitely cheating by Trump/TX GOP, but not insurmountable by any means www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-will-r...
(in case it didn't come across, this was sarcasm)
okay ryan, but does it raise or lower trump's approval rating among people who sign up to take surveys in a digital ad-testing production system? that is the only question that matters
tfw getting endorsed by bernie is coded as "moderation"
potentially -- haven't determined yet
(signal boosting about the former 538 people doing good work)
word
Well, the "no way" comment from Jeffries is strong for my tastes. IF the CA redistricting fails, Dems will be in the hole unless they can win the House popular vote by ~3 points. That's no sure thing. (Though FWIW, polling indicates CA voters are on board with the retaliatory gerrymander.)
take a break! we'll be here when you're ready to come back.
3/ Another good review of the gerrymandering situation from @gelliottmorris.com: "Republican lawmakers and the president decided to put a partisan power grab above democracy." www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-will-r...
A NYT piece on Dem voter registration woes got lots of attention, so I'm glad @gelliottmorris.com checked under the hood. Data is still troubling, but there's nuance here about 'ancestral Dems', as well as registration trends that should concern both parties. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-most-c...
yes! perk of membership.
Critically important if you are doing election strategy work A HUGE AMOUNT OF VOTERS DO NOT SEE THEMSELVES AS D OR R Great stuff from @gelliottmorris.com www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-most-c...
New Trump approval, generic ballot, issue poll numbers coming out Tuesday at Strength In Numbers. Also have fresh data on gerrymandering and democracy, plus Trump’s tariffs and inflation. Our best release yet, IMO!
My weekly roundup of political data stories: "The most common political party for new voters is no party at all" Plus: polls on Trump's police crackdown; Musk cancels his third party plans; & more www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-most-c...