NEW Aug. Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats up 8 pts on the U.S. House generic ballot (49-41), Trump at 41% approval (-15). Most voters say gerrymandering is a problem, and support natl law for redistricting commissions and proportional rep'n.🧵 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
I would love to see @atrupar.com dig up the 2016(?) CNN(?) vid of Scott Jennings bragging about the GOPRussia's (he was on Deripaska's dime back then) built in 7% advantage due to gerrymandering. Ryn it continously along w his & the NRA's Russian earnings.
National redistricting is a great idea... once someone else is in charge. Donald can't be trusted.
Not enough.
Isn’t there a threshold where gerrymanders backfire and the districts you tried to crack all end up flipping at once? This was one of the “you can’t get too greedy” limiters to gerrymanders I I was told about, but I guess working with models instead of vibes makes it easier to minimize the risk.
That's a Dummymander and it's a possible outcome in Texas as they are making 5 far less safe R seats vs keeping the guaranteed ones now.
Fascism isn't that popular? Shocking! Too bad these swing voter/non-voter morons didn't listen to people who know sh*t a year ago.
Thanks to our partner @verasight.bsky.social for questionnaire help, sample design, fielding, and weighting. The Strength In Numbers poll has a hard church-state wall between editorial operations and the poll itself, ensuring neutrality in operation while preserving independent, honest coverage.
Here's the House generic ballot trend. Dems are up 8, which is the same as our June poll and statistically insignificant rise for Dems since July. Since May, we have found a public opposed to Trump's policies and a solid Dem lead on the House popular vote.
Here's Trump's approval rating by issue. This month, we added "Crime and public safety" to the battery. it's one of Trump's better issues, but he's still underwater (-3) on it with 48% of adults opposed. Trump remains unpopular on every issue except border security, including deportations and trade.
Data like this really goes to show you just how racist so many Americans still are Trump is speed running this country into the toilet, but he’s still hurting black/brown people, so a certain percentage of the population will endure anything else to ensure that keeps happening
Guy with no personal boundaries is huge on borders.
What’s the exact phrasing on the border security question & do you think rephrasing it would move the needle up or down?
Poorly constructed graph. The header doesn't match the bars. i.e. 'disapprove' on the left at the top and on the right in the bars. What else do you get wrong?
Because I’m mildly colorblind, I had to study this chart 3x for 10 minutes each before I realized that the right side was red/disapproval not right side/approavl
It's not wrong, it's color coded. You can't know if it'll be on the right or the left in the bars until you actually run the poll but it's sorted such that the disproves start from the farthest left (as indicated in the header) and then increase, with the approves going the opposite direction.
Then make the labels at the top math the results.
They match the pattern--you start with the lowest disapproval (on the left) and the highest approval (on the right) and then you move through the results in ascending/descending order, respectively This is like blaming a typesetter because you don't understand what indentation means in a paragraph
The purpose of graphs and illustration sis to enhance understanding. This doesn't.
i mean the purpose of writing is to enhance understanding but if you don't learn how to read you're not going to understand i feel like you understood it i don't see a lot of other comments like yours i think (and evidently others agree) that it's fine
I also found it very confusing and I have reviewed a lot of graphs in my time.
a 61% disapproval rate should not be listed in red on the green approval side of the graph. It should be red under the disapproval heading. The graph is confusing and poorly designed.
there's not a "green approval side of the graph"--every issue has an approval rating and a disapproval rating. for most presidencies, several issues would have approval > disapproval (so approval would be on the right), with others where a < d (so approval would be on the left)
The heading at the top says “Approve.” It makes no sense to list a 61% disapproval rating under “Approve” when it’s obvious it should be placed under “Disapprove.” It’s a poorly designed graph that leads to confusion.
like, it's a *number line*. Bigger numbers HAVE TO BE on the right, by convention, since 1685. So unless you want to go back in time and kill John Wallis, that's just the order numbers go in if you're saying "i don't understand number lines" then i don't think graphs are a great fit for you
and if that’s the case, the headings should be ‘smaller number” and “bigger number”
The bottom indicates that it's a number line. The top is not headers, it's a color code
poorly designed graphs are not my favorites
i'm not trying to be a dick but there's a difference between "this graph is confusing" and "i am confused"
I'm sure I'm just being dense but this graphic confuses me.
Ok, the words Approve and Disapprove on top are there to show you the color-coding; their positioning is not significant. So each number in red is the % of people that disapprove on the issue in that row and each number in green is the % that approve. What the chart helps visualize is the gap
Yes, thank you, that's what I find confusing. Their positioning is unfortunate. Thanks for the insights, I appreciate it!
Open to suggestions for making this chart more readable
I could be an outlier and just have misread but I wonder if it would help not to have those little tags at the bottom of approve/disapprove which seem to connect them to the data. The data should perhaps be associated ONLY be the red and green color.
between people liking each thing. So if people were 49-51 on an issue the dots would be close together but if 80% of people felt one way and only 20% the other than the dots would look very far apart. (When there are less rows, this kind of info is often shown in a bar graph with two bars each.)
Tacos approval rating should be zero. 15% at best. Not only is everything he’s doing illegal and unconstitutional, it is stupid. It’s just going to make things worse instead of better. Anyone who’s ever studied crime knows the army does nothing to deter it. It’s like hitting a fly with a 500 pd bomb
Inflation/prices is most significant, and the consensus is that issue is what sank Biden/Harris
Here's what those issue trends look like over time. Note the drop and persistent unpopularity on inflation, immigration, and trade. And you can see that first point for crime in August. After a positive trend from May to August on the economy, Trump fell back to -13 this month.
This month, a subscriber suggested replicating a finding from a Quinnipiac University poll on immigration. We asked U.S. adults if they'd prefer a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants or mass deportations, IF they had to pick one. We got a 60-40 split in favor of a path to legal status.
Please contact your Representative and tell them to support the Dignity Act of 2025. immigrationforum.org/article/the-...
On the economy, vibes are bleak. 22% of adults say their own finances are better than a year ago, and 50% say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse off. Tariffs are unpopular (36 support / 56 oppose) 54% say it's not worth it to raise prices even if manufacturing jobs come back (they aren't).
Are the questions asked with the impacts or are they just asked with the policies?
How do these specific measures compare longitudinally, like in 2024?
Jesus, we really are a nation of morons 56% opposed to the thing that Trump spent the entire election saying he was going to do where the fuck were you on election day?
On gerrymandering, 45% say gerrymandering is a big problem, and 56% support a national requirement for independent redistricting commissions. 53% would still back fair maps even if their party loses seats, and 89% say free and fair elections are more important than their party winning elections.
Most voters also say that single-member districts are unfair to the minority party in deep red/blue states. We asked if voters would support a system that allocated House seats by party proportional to the share of the vote they win statewide, and 46% said yes (27% no).
I'm sure someone more educated than I could sell me on it but I definitely don't have any stake in this, partly cause I don't get how it works and partly cause it feels like it is impossible to do in our current system. Super interesting though.
I think proportional representation is an issue where education has the ability to swing a ton of people into the "yes" camp. Many have simply never considered it. Framing it as a way of disempowering existing parties would push it HARD in the direction of approval.
I would love to have multi-member districts and RCV.
Even more in the online article + poll toplines. Subscribe to Strength In Numbers and suggest your own topic for next month's survey! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
Just wanted to thank you for some good news. I needed a pick-me-up all day.
I’d love to see more polling on party trust in the public. “Which party do you trust more on issue X?” I think is the best way to understand which issues are worth increasing salience on
📌
Boo! Stop asking questions that entrench a deeply unpopular system. Our system is not designed for parties, and a smaller and smaller share of people join them. Ask questions about elimination of them, not how we bring colonial European systems to our shores.
Which is to say, ask about open primaries. Do people care about being a member/ does party affinity matter? Is party affiliation or camdidate specifics (policy positions, principles, vibes) more important? Are they familiar with approval voting or ranked choice, and do they prefer those over FPTP?
Proportional representation is the way to go - that is, if you like democracy.
Is this poll of rvs or adults- it looks like its adults but demo weighted to a voter universe? Sorry if I missed it
it's adults
Proprotional representation should come with a massive expansion of the house. Smallest state gets 2 and proportional from there.
Did the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929 basically guarantee disproportional representation for rural areas? We need to repeal that thing, but good luck doing so.
i've been a fan of mixed-member proportional representation for a while now, and it honestly feels like it'd be an easier sell than most proportional representation systems if only because it can't be said to threaten the seat of anyone currently in Congress
I know folks get frustrated with Dem messaging that keeps calling Trump's military occupation of DC a "distraction" from his failure on the economy, but this is why they do it. The fact is, the economy is just a more salient issue for most Americans. That doesn't mean I think Dems... /1
...shouldn't talk about DC and the rest of Trump's authoritarian moves as of late -- they should! And I think they should be talking about it more than they are. But this does provide a little context to their current messaging strategy. I'd be interesting in knowing if... /2
...the distraction message is sinking in. Is there a way to poll this? Maybe ask people if they think his deployment of troops to DC is a legitimate effort to fight crime, or an attempt to distract from other issues like the economy? I mean, if people are embracing the distraction message... /3
...and aren't trusting Trump's stated reasons for his actions, that could work to Dems' benefit. /end
It's that 36% that gets me! So freaking unconditional to their cult leader. That's the number I'd like to see decreasing.
You mean the people who are worse off under trump but lie about it to pollsters to make their orange messiah look good?
That 40% is too damn high.
Interesting. So why do people not protest harder against Gestapo methods used against otherwise law abiding presently illegal immigrants doing all that hard work and helping our economy? Can someone do a cost-benefit analysis per deported immigrant? I suspect it is horrific.
Smh managing the federal government workforce is getting slightly less popular. I mean yeah it’s in the MOE but still. My only guess would be it’s summer and people really have not been following it.
who the hell made that graphic???
But he's terrible at border security! Ugh.
If he’s terrible, explain how his imaginary barrier against the imaginary hordes is winning the imaginary war.
Are the labels at the top reversed?
IDK why aren't the numbers lower?
Is it me or is something looking somewhat skewed about this? Not criticizing the poster (@gelliottmorris.com) but where, exactly were these 1500 polled ppl located? What state? Or was it apportioned equally amongst ALL of the US?
They don't like him on immigration, deportations, or trade, so what part of his border security policy do they like?
Why the hell is his border security numbers so high? 51% of the public is cool with deporting and imprisoning innocent people?
In this list it is unavoidable to see the strong correlation between "affects me" sinking to the bottom and "hurts others" floating to the top.
Who is this 41% that still approves of Trump? It makes no sense at all.
I also wonder what "border security" even means to these people; it just feels like a background noise topic where unless you've been directly harassed by an ICE agent it just feels like something that happens to "other people".
This is a terribly designed chart.
Can you "combatting corruption"?
How can you separate border security from deportations?
I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but Trump’s corruption, incompetence & unfitness for office were all widely known in the fall of 2024. How the hell did he sweep every swing state? It doesn’t really make sense.
great visualizations, btw!
I’m glad a cat didn’t take a shit in my brain because imagine thinking he’s good for border security
maybe its because its one area he didnt do a goddamn thing (except paint a piece of his wall black)
Not to mention that the wrong side of the wall was painted - the US side. (I saw a post where the Mexicans had "retaliated" by painting colorful murals on their side of the wall.)
I bet you could convince him that’s a bad idea by demonstrating that one could paint some highlights and make it look like a tunnel. Perhaps with one or two Mexicans getting through whilst ICE agents comically splat against the paint
perfect. starting a company now called ACME border solutions
I mean, technically the border is secure. No one's immigrating illegally (because no one wants to at all anymore)
That doesn’t mean the border is secure, it just means we’re keeping the honest ones out
No no, I'm saying even the dishonest ones are looking at America and saying "I don't want to go into that shithole"
And on border security trump is probably allowing mass quantities of fentanyl as well is pests like screwworm across the border b/c he's entirely focused on deporting abuela and tia.
The only one that matters is the last one.
Where does the military occupation of cities stand?
Unless the spread is approaching 20 points a nationwide generic poll means little. Now a poll of contested Districts exclusively would mean a ton.
I think a lot of these questions are really well designed!
+8 is Blue wave.
The fact that the US voting public isn't poised to deliver a catastrophic evisceration of the GOP is goddamned shameful. Here in Canada when we get really angry with a party we make sure their caucus can car-pool together to the legislature after the election.
This is why. It's why FDR didn't have his New Deal do as much for African Americans as he could have. If he had, white people would have started leaving the Democratic Party coalition in 1936 instead of 1966
I don't believe a single word the polls say. Over 40% consistently favor the narcissistic and denialist autocrat. And there will be more fraud and intimidation. And many just don't want to admit it: they think Trump's policies are AWESOME.
Then where are you getting 40% from.
Rough estimation of the numbers of Rep voters (red line), only on Jun 14th below 40%
But this is polling data, which you don't trust.
😆 I trust the polls, but not to make a prediction from them. Good point!
To be fair, we know now that only the most right-wing polls have ended up being accurate for Trump because he has an enormous base of people who are embarrassed to support him - the majority of the voting population didn't think it was worth their time to go against him last year
Or the election was rigged/hacked/stolen
What are you talking about. Biden dropped out of the race because every poll was pointing towards a Trump win.
Keep in mind, 40% of Republicans doesn’t mean the same actual number of people it once did. More and more self-identified Rs have left the party.
Stick your tampon back in
Will will win the elections in 2026 but will never take power.
What this is telling me is we live in a country where 41% of voters are morons
wow a competent political operation could capitalize on this
Am I reading this correctly that this is weighted to US adults? If so, I assume we would expect a midterm electorate to be even more Dem?
Me every time I hear "proportional representation" from people with platforms:
And when you get this straightened out, that will matter. thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-th...
Let's not be overly confident. The dark anti democratic forces will push hard to keep people from the ballots
Looking at these questions and the numbers, why the hell did Trump win?!? Why republicans consistently vote for what they are against?
"a national requirement for independent redistricting commissions" I'm not a fan at all of this. These commissions are a handcuff for blue states and a weapon for fascist red states. No such thing as an "independent commission" when fascists appoint fascists to the commission.
41% approve of this shit. Unreal.
But what happens when he has National Guard troops sitting at all of the polling booths in key house seat districts suppressing the vote?
No such thing as an "independent commission." It's better, and technologically possible to require that the maps be certified in a way that any modeled election produces the EXPECTED partisan representation that mirrors the partisan registration of a state.
Many countries (and even some of your states!) have independent commissions for drawing riding boundaries. Just don’t get suckered into a bipartisan commission instead.
I'm not convinced of the existence of the 'independent voter' either. In the US, it's simply another reflection of our "don't tell me what to do" culture, (controlled by advertising,) and a general political laziness. Like I suggest, the expected results can be modeled, therefore 'fair.'
For a fairness effort to succeed, voters would need to choose between two parties. And in "don't tell me what to do" America it will never happen
The only political parties I really see, are those supporting two party systems vs those supporting one party systems. Third parties have more meaning in a parliamentary two-party system, but the coalitions are the real power.
They don't even matter much in parliament systems either. See UK - France. Left parties who want to get things done balloon into multiple parties who don't work together very often, where as conservative parties are far smaller in number and do work together. More parties are a hard sell.
I can see that. Canadian parliament is slowly coalescing into Liberal and Conservative. It's the nature of power.
+8 !!!
That's good. All indicators moving in the right direction. I support the use of gerrymandering to thwart gerrymandering to abolish gerrymandering at the federal level.