Republican Party: The Death of Stalin Democratic Party: Letters from Brezhnev
Professor of democracy and international affairs. http://www.henryfarrell.net and newsletter at http://www.programmablemutter.com. Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy (Holt, Penguin). https://www.publishersweekly.com/9781250840554.
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Republican Party: The Death of Stalin Democratic Party: Letters from Brezhnev
accelerating at 180mph from "We Must Destroy The Groups" to "Group Identities Don't Exist In Politics But The Median Voter Does" ...
Photo passed along from a federal employee from inside the Dept of Labor building, where a giant Orwellian image of Trump's face is now draped outside. Big Brother is watching.
@profsaunders.bsky.social has the IR theory behind this - www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Costa That said, our partners including the US must know that the EU will always defend its sovereignty, its citizens, its companies, and its values. Diplomacy should never be mistaken for complacency. (note: I'm afraid that's exactly what's happened)
Clear break here with von der Leyen, who last week rejected this assertion, made by the director general of trade Sabine Weyand at an event in Germany
Interesting speech by European Council president Costa at the Bled Forum today Confirms security / Ukraine aspect of EU US deal that VDL pushed back strongly against. Clear break here
a16z Managing Director here he comes.
[combover blows back in a strong wind to reveal liver spots in the form of three linked sixes on the bare scalp]
this is indeed really well done
For folks who are Hungary-dooming, (a) Orban was genuinely popular, and (b) very far from a done deal, but "was" has been the operative adjective for some while - www.reuters.com/world/hungar...
Also, Orban was able to cement his power early on thanks to a parliamentary supermajority that allowed Fidesz to rewrite the constitution to lock in their advantages (even though this may now be fading). There’s not really anything comparable in the US system
For folks who are Hungary-dooming, (a) Orban was genuinely popular, and (b) very far from a done deal, but "was" has been the operative adjective for some while - www.reuters.com/world/hungar...
There's that old Gene Wolfe story about the dude who gets his brain transreversed by aliens so that nearly everything he sees or hears becomes a bad pun. I suspect that for many of us, Wolfe included, this is autobiographical.
Wrote about Comer/Mace attempting to doxx and intimidate Wikipedia editors in an effort to force their own viewpoint onto Wikipedia.
These are public employees who decided to leave rather than accept jobs where they actually did nothing. Remember that the next time they tell you that government employees are lazy and inefficient.
Lisa Cook is dead cool and it may be one of those instances where the messers become the messees on.ft.com/46cQKRl
Great discussion with @abenewman.bsky.social @himself.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
In Which Nadine Amuses a Dragon and Makes Autumn Happen
haha
A example of what I talk about in Counting Like a State. There is a diverse repertoire of actions that states can take to protect federal data under assault. Not just lawsuits, not just mobilizing census participation, but refusal to cooperate with these schemes. kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700639687/
Ben recommends this essay by Jessica Dai, which is excellent - joinreboot.org/p/alignment
Yup. And not just philosophers. There is a whole breed of "AI Safety" researchers in CS who do the same SciFi nonsense and get enormous research funding. They got mad at me for calling them dorks complicit in death yesterday. www.argmin.net/p/the-banal-...
Excited that this is coming out very soon at Comparative Political Studies:
“They will also “exchange on a report” about how much of a market there is for companies who want to use European cloud providers as back-up to US hyperscalers.” “The duo are also planning to hold a digital sovereignty summit on 18 November with the Commission and other EU countries.”
New preprint on "Computational Hermeneutics," co-authored by too many people to list in one post. TL;DR: GenAI is a cultural technology, and needs to be evaluated in ways that recognize situatedness, plurality, and ambiguity as the conditions of meaning — not noise to be minimized.
I might quibble with some of the details, but this taxonomy of different abundance tendencies is really useful. A lot of discourse on this website is driven by the mistaken belief that Moderate-Abundance Synthesis is the only tendency out there. www.niskanencenter.org/abundance-va...
Thanks - I didn't know about the Brazil payment system, but it fits with stuff that @dsquareddigest.bsky.social and myself have been looking at - European Central Bank plans for the digital euro are in part a response to worries about how credit card payment systems are a critical vulnerability.
“Europe is ill-equipped in a world where geoeconomics, security and the stability of supply sources, rather than efficiency, shape international trade relations,” Draghi said. “Our political organisation must adapt to the existential demands of its time.”
“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Bringing a proposal for somewhat improved bureaucratic coordination to a no-holds barred geopolitical cage match.
“Europe has many of the capacities of a geoeconomic superpower but lacks the institutional machinery to make use of them,” the pair wrote in a cover story for Foreign Affairs. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
American-based political scientists Henry Farrell and Abe Newman coined the phrase “Europe always chickens out – EACO”, which they said referred to the bloc’s hesitation to get its hands dirty in “the age of weaponised interdependence”.
For the first time a joint cabinet meeting of the French and German governments were today briefed by economists from each country - they covered 5 points, one of which was "trade with China" cae-eco.fr/principaux-e...
I think this turned out pretty well.
Listen to the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” featuring @himself.bsky.social and @abenewman.bsky.social on how the United States has weaponized economic interdependence for decades—and why the tables are turning today: https://fam.ag/45VUghA
"I am a sick man. ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unattractive man. I believe my mitochondria are challenged."
loosely similar: Cory Doctorow on a notorious SF story locusmag.com/2014/03/cory...
Fully Automated Luxury Communism, and going back some years, Peter Frase's Four Futures are both important elements of the mix.
Congratulations!
I learned about Abundance from Steve in the first place, so I may have thought this was more obvious than it is - it's not an ideology, it's to do with the material circumstances of ideology www.niskanencenter.org/abundance-va...
I have never seen so many public servants protest the mismanagement of a government. Trumpists will point to this as proof of the deep state, but the reality is that these are professionals who are desperately trying to get the public to understand how bad things are.
Just picked up a copy in Politics and Prose DC, where it was on prominent display.
@pastpunditry.bsky.social book on Clarence Manion is strong on some of the particulars of this.
That is quite a sharp formulation of the problem.
I think we are in a quantum superposition between democracy and competitive authoritarianism. The 2026 midterms will collapse the wave function: we'll look into the box and see whether the cat is dead or alive.
yes - one of the things I have been meaning to say at length and not quite getting round to is that Ezra proposed a version of the model we need, but a decade too early!
An underrated problem is that a lot of mainstream media is badly adapted for analyzing big structural problems with a lot of unfamiliar detail. That is why @wired.com has been killing it - it has adapted the perspective of tech journalism to the problem of technically complex political crisis.
I think "unconsolidated authoritarianism" is the most useful point of convergence.
Capitan Swing is also set to publish the Spanish version of Underground Empire. Can't wait.
The way I describe it is: we are under an authoritarian regime, but we don't know that it has consolidated -- for all we know, it could still be thrown out via elections.
my version of this www.programmablemutter.com/p/were-getti...
Everything in this analysis seems right
Also would be interested in what @rlspang.bsky.social has to say as a historian who is highly familiar with this kind of approach
Out now! Summary Report: Workshop on the Geopolitics of Critical Minerals and the AI Supply Chain www.ias.edu/sites/defaul... The report highlights how AI’s expansion is tied to critical minerals, energy, water, land, and labor—and why interdisciplinary approaches are essential for AI governance.🧵
"Trump's objective—which is aligned with the interests of certain US technology companies—is to implement regime change in Europe." — @alexandrageese.bsky.social Alexandra is, of course, entirely right — and it's high time to push back. www.techpolicy.press/europe-canno...
On my initiative the INTA committee will have an extraordinary meeting to discuss EU-US trade relations with Director General @sabineweyand.bsky.social of trade at the Commission. 👉Meeting to take place Wednesday 3 September 14.30 until 16.00 #eutrade
Weyand said at the Alpach event on Monday: "We are paying the price for the fact we ignored the wake-up call we got during the first Trump administration — and we went back to sleep"
I wondered if Sabine Weyand had read this piece before her comments this week. Newman and Farrell write: "Even though Europe woke up to the danger of weaponized interdependence during the first Trump administration, it quickly fell back asleep."
Strongly recommend this Foreign Affairs cover story on the "weaponised world economy" by @himself.bsky.social and @abenewman.bsky.social, which has some of the best analysis of Europe's floundering in this brave new world that I have read A few highlights www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Llama costume contest! For the first time, we remembered to time our trip to see it!
wow
sometimes I'm in love with America
this
it appears the question of disclosing financial support has become topical, so I'll repost a thread: It is as simple as this. I'm happy to argue, for example "which is the best biscuit?" with all comers. But if the @/HobNobsOfficial account goes "what's the best biscuit, let's have a debate!" ...
"political science suggests that there are reasons why people like Witkoff say things like this. Personality cults lead, with some predictability, to the inflation of ludicrous compliments." www.programmablemutter.com/p/short-post...
I also was reminded of your First Rule for Debating Milton Friedman
Regarding the most recent tongue-bathing session by all the Trump lackeys, here is a fun short post from @himself.bsky.social, via @stevemnomoremister.bsky.social: www.programmablemutter.com/p/short-post...
"Brussels’ focus on market influence has become a dangerous blind spot. For instance, officials may treat digital protections as bargaining chips rather than a crucial bulwark of European democracy." @abenewman.bsky.social @himself.bsky.social on the Brussels Defect. www.ft.com/content/5820...
"economists are specifically those social and political scientists and philosophers who are given permission to ignore things that might get in the way of the output goal they have chosen to set." backofmind.substack.com/p/reject-pre...
It's a great term from 17th century English that thoroughly deserves a revival.
"how do you show your loyalty? By paying the costs of humiliation. The more grotesquely over the top your praise, the more credible it is as a signal of support for Dear Leader." www.programmablemutter.com/p/short-post...
Honestly this is just really cool. I wrote a book and now they're going to sell it in stores. This was my one little dream and now it's a thing. www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/634502...
Horse race coverage, but the horses are democracy and authoritarianism
Sometimes I look back on my old posts and think "well the way things turned out has made this one look pretty dumb" and sometimes I don't.
Having moderate Dems attack the crypto economy is good actually.
I was looking to find a copy the other day and prices started north of $100 ...
I hate to say I told you so but...centralizing government data infrastructures and turning them over to inexperiences actors generates big risks to society. We are starting to see the first consequences for social security. Others will follow. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/u...
The world the Brussels effect was crafted for is dead. "...officials may treat digital protections as bargaining chips rather than a crucial bulwark of European democracy or a defence against foreign influence. That would be a terrible mistake."
National politics isn’t where the battle will be fought or won. State & local. That’s where it’s at. Huge opportunity for progressives.There’s already promising activity but there needs to be a full court press. Decision-making power is up for grabs. The U.S. 21st c will be shaped in the states.
1/New in @financialtimes.com w/ @himself.bsky.social on the Brussels Defect. Europe's longstanding path to power -- market regulation -- now a source of vulnerabilities. Europe's national security and democracy are at risk. Defection might be the only escape. www.ft.com/content/5820...
"The immediate question isn’t, say, where you can change zoning laws. It is, instead, building power, even if only incrementally."
www.ft.com/content/5820... The dangers of the Brussels Defect. This has been in the pot for a little while, but the underlying point is similar to that of Mario Draghi's speech - www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMME...
Good morning with good news: Africa's solar imports surge 60% to 15 GW in the 12 months ending June 2025. It will raise Sierra Leone's electricity supply by 61% & by at least 5% in 16 nations! Solar changes nations in 12 months, reducing energy poverty! #energysky ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
Begun 1983. Published 1992. Out again today.
Kingsley Amis, in fairness to him had some solid doggerel on this ... "SF's no good, they bellow 'til we're deaf "But this is good!" "Well, then it's not SF!”"
Throwing the Ham Sandwich
Ernest Gellner's Conditions of Liberty really deserves a revival. It gets lots wrong, and is Not My Politics, but it is the most consistent philosopical-anthropological-sociological effort I know of to address these broad questions.
I’d hazard an honest explanation would sound rather like Willie Sutton’s.
time is a flat circle
I had missed this piece from @himself.bsky.social and Shalizi. It's very simple, very good, and very scary: cacm.acm.org/opinion/bias... Two quick followups to consider: - what does "do your own research" do to untrained folks? - what do LLMs do in this model?
Hegemonic enshittification watch www.wired.com/story/enshit...
from research interviews with Danish folks talking about what is happening to US products on grocery shelves, this is only going to burnish further the enormous popularity of Trump's America.
cacm.acm.org/opinion/bias... Cosma and I have a 'model' (for handwavy definitions of model) of how this can all add up.
My team at OSTP helped craft and implement the Biden administration’s scientific integrity policies to help keep politics out of government science. Unsurprisingly, the Trump administration has rolled back these safeguards for independent science. It’s an open invitation to political interference.
just so. It's good to see someone who is so deeply inside the thing speaking so bluntly about the extent of the crisis. Whatever it takes ...