> @mikezaccardi.bsky.social đ
Founder and editor of The Felder Report and host of the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
1,882 followers 79 following 2,450 posts
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> @mikezaccardi.bsky.social đ
âBankruptcies have been rising, with the twelve-month moving average hitting a new cycle high.â www.yesigiveafig.com/p/exit-voice...
It's just not credible for the Fed to claim to have a 2% inflation target when it's been 53 months above target and moving higher & they shift to further easing.
âYou let the technology leader, the U.S. in this case, eat the cost of exploration, and then you try to be the fast follower or be the one who optimizes for implementation.â www.wsj.com/tech/ai/chin...
âThe risks are rising that we could see another âinflation mountainâ emerge over the coming months.â www.apolloacademy.com/will-we-see-...
âFor all of that investment to pay off, businesses and individuals will eventually have to spend big on these AI-powered services and products. The alternative is that consumers could just use cheaper, less-powerful models that require fewer resources.â www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-c...
NEW POST: âNcredibleâ thefelderreport.com/2025/08/30/n...
âHaving every asset decline simultaneously in terms of volatility is a sign of complacency.â www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
âConvano was, until recently, a sleepy Tokyo-listed operator of nail salons. Now it has unveiled a highly ambitious plan: raise about ÂĽ434 billion ($3 billion) and acquire 21,000 Bitcoin. At the time of announcement, its market value was a fraction of that sum.â www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
âTurning to outside partners for help in AI shows the uphill road Meta faces as it plots a turnaround in AI, after the company stumbled with the development of its own in-house model earlier this year.â www.theinformation.com/articles/met...
"I think that we have all been sold a lot of hypnosis around what's about to happen with AI." www.businessinsider.com/marc-benioff...
âTruly, this bull market is like the infamous Russian mystic Rasputinâit just canât be killed off.â www.barrons.com/articles/sto...
âA bull steepening in the real yield curve, driven in large part by rising inflation expectations that are greater at shorter maturities, is the marketâs way of saying: inflation risks are rising.â blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
âAmid the Federal Reserve drama and deluge of corporate earnings in August, one clear but overlooked trend emerged in U.S. equities: the rotation out of expensive tech stocks and into cheaper small caps.â www.reuters.com/markets/euro...
âAnyone valuing US assets today needs to do so through the lens of âpatrioticâ capitalism.â www.ft.com/content/830e...
âOne more reorg and everything will be fixed,â joked Meta research scientist Mimansa Jaiswal on X last week. âJust one more.â www.ft.com/content/1107...
âWhile ChatGPT use has been linked to suicides and mental-health hospitalizations among heavy users, this appears to be the first documented murder involving a troubled person who had been engaging extensively with an AI chatbot.â www.wsj.com/tech/ai/chat...
âWhy, in 2025 are we reviving economic practices that we largely abandoned in the 19th century because they were too corrupt for a âmodernâ nation?â www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
âWhy would a piece of software act like an abuser? The answer is in its programming.â www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
âU.S. companies have an unwelcome message for inflation-weary consumers: Prices are going up.â www.wsj.com/business/ret...
âIt looks like someone managed to finagle a large synthetic allocation to the Bullish IPO by aggressively creating shares in ARKK. And once the windfall materialised they immediately redeemed those shares to crystallise the gain, sending ARKK back to earth.â www.ft.com/content/0cd4...
'Fittingly for an unstoppable force, Nvidia is about to come up against an immovable object. Or at least an object that has not moved much in decadesâAmericaâs power grid.' www.economist.com/business/202...
âReal yields in the US look biased to rise, contrary to what would be expected as the government increasingly meddles in monetary policy.â blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
âCoding is loudly promoted as a business use case that already works. Simon Willison is an enthusiastic vibe coder. OpenAIâs latest model GPT-5 is, he says, his new favourite. Still, he predicts that a vibe coding crash is due if it is used to produce glitchy software.â www.ft.com/content/5b3d...
âAdd up analystsâ estimates of the next five yearsâ worth of free cash flows, discount them back at a 10 per cent rate, and they total just $650bn. In other words, the remaining $3.8tn of enterprise value represents cash arriving from 2030 onwards.â www.ft.com/content/d5fb...
âMost recently, we have been short the US and long European equities . . . and thatâs purely a view on equity valuations.â on.ft.com/4fUDJiG
âThe most transformative technology in over a century may have finally found its limit: ordering tacos.â www.wsj.com/articles/tac...
âOver the last year Nvidiaâs market cap has overtaken the total valuations of the main stock indexes in the UK, France and Germany. Itâs also overtaken the entire S&P 500 energy sector to whose members will fall the task of powering the machines that use its chips.â www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
âFOMO, is winning. Itâs a sentiment echoed across asset classes, with global stock indexes, gold, Bitcoin and others surging to record highs.â www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
âNearly a third of publicly traded companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets now trade below the value of those reserves.â www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
âNot only is the yield level in fixed income higher than it has been for many years, but the S&P 500 forward earnings yield has been coming down. Risk is mispriced and investors buying the S&P 500 today are not rewarded for the risks they are taking.â www.apolloacademy.com/remarkable-c...
âCDS pricing suggests the U.S. sovereign rating should be closer to a single "A" rather than the "AA+" of the main agencies.â www.reuters.com/markets/us/t...
âMacro volatility and inflation uncertainty are underpriced; fiscal policy is profligate; centralâbank independence is under assault; confidence in the dollar and foreign demand are fraying; and Treasuriesâ haven status is in question.â www.dailychartbook.com/p/747 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
'Scaling works, but only to a degree, and only on some aspects of intelligence and not others. But itâs all still just an extended form of mimicry, not something deeper, as the persistent failures with parts and wholes keep showing us.' garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-scali...
'If progress is likely to come from domain specific applications of this technology, rather than exponential compute scaling, do we still need to build multi-million GPU clusters and add 90 GW of energy to the US power grid over the next 5-10 years?' dcahn.substack.com/p/reasonable...
CoreWeaveâs killer run played a big role in juicing Nvidiaâs $2.2 billion ânet other incomeâ in Q2 $CRWV $NVDA
âThe premium the dollar commands in currency derivatives is nearly gone, an indication that foreign demand for US debt is weakening.â www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
âThe cost to deliver AI is in many cases outstripping the value that companies are getting from that AI. The costs are currently being borne by corporate cash flows and venture capital, subsidizing the adoption of AI and masking its true economics.â www.marketwatch.com/story/a-400-...
âInstitutional investors, often regarded as the so-called smart money, are now following retail investors into stocks.â www.marketwatch.com/story/the-so...
âNvidia has singlehandedly accounted for more than 1/6 of the rally in the SPX off of its April low, and in so doing has posted the highest four-month Sharpe ratio in the companyâs history.â blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
âStrategy has kept HODLing and buying, reinforcing its status as the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. However, over the past nine months, owning the corporate vehicle designed to leverage that bet has been worse than owning the underlying asset.â www.ft.com/content/c38c...
âA four-month âninja stealth rallyâ has driven Tokyoâs equity market to record highs, as global investment funds diversify away from China and the US and bet that a decade of structural change has transformed Japanâs corporate boardrooms.â www.ft.com/content/029b...
âIf we succeed in developing and optimising these Chinese chips to train and run Chinese models in a continuously evolving Chinese ecosystem, one day we will look back at this shift as an even more significant DeepSeek moment.â on.ft.com/47OfyAo
âIt turns out that an indexing approach that weights stocks by the companiesâ revenue and not by market capitalization held up better during the down year of 2022, setting up an impressive five-year chart.â www.marketwatch.com/story/think-...
âCambriconâs coming Siyuan 690 processor is expected to approach the performance of Nvidiaâs H100, according to the South China Morning Post. If it achieves that benchmark, that would make it superior to the H20.â www.barrons.com/articles/nvi...
âAI chatbots may have quickly disrupted high-school term papers. Replacing billion-dollar software systems wonât come so easily.â www.wsj.com/finance/soft...
Vegas is cracking.đ˛ Tourism, hotel stays & gaming revenues are slipping. Is this a warning sign that the "go for broke" mindset may have peaked again. #TradingTips #StockMarket #ElliottWave #tourism #vegas #LasVegas
âItâs primarily the perception of safety that has so inflated the retailersâ valuations. These stocks are surging because investors believe that they canât go down! And paradoxically, that now puts them at a heightened risk of correction.â www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
âThe Fed is now subject to intensifying fiscal dominance risks. What is a bigger surprise to us is that the market is not more concerned.â www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
âIf finalized, the sale would amount to nearly the entire volume of shares sold by startup employees and other stakeholders last year.â www.theinformation.com/articles/ope...
âWe know from history what happens to central banks that become arms of politicians. See inflation in Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and in Argentina for decades.â www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
âMarkets arenât good at pricing in structural shifts in the economy. They didnât anticipate the high inflation of the 1970s, its collapse in the 1980s under then-Chairman Paul Volcker, the housing and mortgage crisis of 2007-09 or the pandemic inflation of 2021-22.â www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Bill Dudley: âMarkets are too complacent. Even if Trump stands only a small chance of taking control of the Fed, the effort itself is disruptive and the consequences of success would be dire.â www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
âPain at the âplugâ.â Thatâs a new one. âĄď¸ @bloomberg.com @bobburgess.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Undermining the Fed to get lower rates now is like ripping the batteries out of your smoke alarm because itâs beeping. Itâs quiet for a bit. Then your house burns down. Credibility anchors expectations; expectations anchor inflation.
âWhen you get a major capex boom focused on physical tech assets, like the fiber and Internet buildout in the late '90s, it significantly boosts reported earnings, even if the underlying returns aren't there.â www.businessinsider.com/jim-chanos-s...
âHome prices in more major US cities fell in June, continuing a downshift in the housing market. Prices in just three of the 20 cities tracked by the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller composite index rose last month, the fewest since December 2022.â blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
âThe severe flaws in Chinaâs model of state capitalism are becoming more apparent by the month. It is tragic, then, that so many in Washington seem to believe that the best way for the US to compete with China is to become more like China.â www.ft.com/content/2ddb...
âPerplexityâs actions amount to large-scale, ongoing âfree ridingâ on article content that journalists from both companies have spent immense time and effort to research and write, while Perplexity pays no compensation.â www.ft.com/content/79a8...
âNo president has ever tried to fire a Fed board member or chair, and no president has used allegations of misconduct to remove any official with for-cause protection in over a century, said Lev Menand, Columbia law professor. âWeâre in pretty uncharted waters,â he said.â www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
âWe have come full circle: In the 1990s, the BOJ stood accused of doing âtoo little, too lateâ in the fight against deflation. Now, it stands accused of doing âtoo little, too lateâ in the fight against inflation.â www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
âThe initial market reaction looks preposterously sanguine, given that this move cannot be seen in isolation. It was just weeks ago that president Trump sacked the head of the BLS. Entrenched expectations of norms and institutional integrity are now kaput.â www.ft.com/content/b7d4...
âReliance on the front end of the Treasury curve opens the government to the risk of increased volatility, with short-term rates subject to inflation and changes in monetary policy.â realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
âFor many years after the burst of the asset price bubble in the early 1990s, the combination of near-zero inflation, economic stagnation, and structural policies aimed at stimulating labor supply masked the demographic pressures on labor market tightnessâŚâ www.boj.or.jp/en/about/pre...
OPEN A.I.: ".. Our safeguards work more reliably in common, short exchanges. .. We have learned over time that these safeguards can sometimes be less reliable in long interactions .. parts of the modelâs safety training may degrade.â @techcrunch.com techcrunch.com/2025/08/26/p...
âAcademic papers find that disagreement among FOMC members has a negative impact on stock prices and puts upward pressure on inflation expectations.â www.apolloacademy.com/the-impact-o...
âMoney managersâ net-long position on West Texas Intermediate shrank by 19,578 lots to 29,686 lots in the week ended Tuesday, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Thatâs the lowest since October 2008.â www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
âShares of new companies this year have surged an average of 35% in their first day of trading, making 2025 the most successful year for public debuts since 2000.â www.optimisticallie.com/p/new-kids-o...
'The one-year CPI swap has been stable since Liberation Day, even as actual inflation numbers have turned and started to rise â but note that a 3% projection for two years hence, which is inching upward, is bad news for the doves.' www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
'If the public suspects political influence at the central bank, it becomes harder, not easier, to have both low rates and low inflation. And it is ominous that long-term bond yields have not fallen much since the Fed started cutting in 2024.' www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Why do so many investors think the stock market is forming a bubble? www.marketwatch.com/story/why-do...
'With AI you don't have network effects nor the economies of scale as with software or social media. In some sense, AI looks more like airlines: the product is commoditized, you have high capex requirements and they never really make a lot of money.' www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...
Market views of things that will never happen: Mid-2000âs: house prices going down 2009-12: avoiding a double-dip recession 2018-21: inflation/high interest rates 2024-: tech stocks sustainably going down, buying and holding stocks not working
Seeing the gas really come out of some shitcoins. Does it indicate a larger liquidity pullback?
GIROUX: â.. Tesla could fall 90% tomorrow, and I wouldnât buy a share, because itâs just crazy overvalued. Palantir, I wouldnât buy a share â crazy overvalued. Costco Wholesale â[at a price of] 49 times earnings, Walmart, 37 times â doesnât make any sense.â @electrek.co electrek.co/2025/08/25/t...
ht @bxbx4.bsky.social
âEconomic history tells us that even the most transformative technologies, which economists refer to as general-purpose technologies, canât be exploited to maximum effect until infrastructure, skills, and products that can complement them are developed.â www.newyorker.com/news/the-fin...
This Incredibly Simple Question Causes GPT-5 to Melt Into a Puddle of Pure Confusion futurism.com/gpt-5-simple...
âBubbles burst not because the story is completely wrong, but because around the margins the story is wrong. The story of the rate of growth, the time horizon of growth, is unrealistically optimistic, and the risk of competition eroding market share is underestimated.â www.forbes.com/sites/hanktu...
âPrivate credit funding of artificial intelligence is running at around $50 billion a quarter for the past three quarters. Data center deals are 20 to 30 year tenor fundings for a technology that we donât even know what they will look like in five years.â www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
âInvestors donât seem to understand that the AI cloud and processor revenues for the big tech companies are coming from the unsustainable reality that OpenAI, Anthropic and others are selling their services at big losses as they pay big money for cloud services.â www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-sto...
âThe Fed is supported by structures that protect its independence, but anyone who doubts Trumpâs desire and willingness to bend it towards his will is kidding themself.â www.ft.com/content/ebf4...
âAccording to a May report by Enders and the Professional Publishers Association, media groups were âlosing visibility and value as their content is used but not rewardedâ, with about half reporting a search traffic decline over the past year.â www.ft.com/content/f7a0...
âBitcoin treasury companies are in a sense the CDO-squareds of the crypto universe. According to brokerage firm Peel Hunt, there are now more than 160 BTCs globally.â www.ft.com/content/478e...
âCrypto treasury stocks are unusual candidates to trade at a premium because there is no barrier to buying the underlying crypto they own. âThis phenomenon violates every principle of finance.ââ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
âThe last time annual net immigration was consistently so low was the 1960s. But back then, the baby boomers were entering the workforce and powering the economy. Now they are retiring, leaving the labor supply more dependent on immigrants.â www.wsj.com/economy/immi...
There Are Now More ETFs in US Than There Are Individual Stocks www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
AI Is Booming. So Are Household Electricity Bills. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
âChinese government bond yields are on the move higher⌠as the chart below shows, this could be an issue for gold.â gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget... by @topdowncharts.bsky.social
âIs the new-era reducing recession risk?â paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/can-we-hav...
âThere are emerging signs of weakness in parts of discretionary spending in recent weeks.â www.apolloacademy.com/some-parts-o...
Eric Schmidt: âThe belief in an A.G.I. or superintelligence tipping point flies in the face of the history of technology, in which progress and diffusion have been incremental. Technology often takes decades to reach widespread use.â www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/o...
âThis entire market has been based on people not understanding that these machines donât actually work like you, imagining that scaling was going to solve all of this, because they donât really understand the problem. I mean, itâs almost tragic.â - @garymarcus.bsky.social fortune.com/2025/08/24/i...
âGeopolitical inflection points have correlated with rotations in the allocation of capital between asset light and asset heavy and eventually between American and European companies. The ebb and flow has turned, with the dollar, on structural macro shifts.â www.carlyle.com/sites/defaul...
âMany people enjoy the adrenaline rush that comes with investing in the latest shiny toy, but for investors looking for steady and stable returns, boring is often a better strategy than fancy.â www.apolloacademy.com/boring-beats...
âThe irresistible rise of big tech over three decadesâ ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
âIt seems tech sector CDS (the cost to insure against credit default) have been ticking higher in recent weeks⌠what do credit markets know?â www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social
âThe term ârecession indicatorâ recently entered the vernacular of social media users as a tongue-in-cheek way of gauging a potential economic slowdown. Businesses are now getting in on the joke as well.â www.cnbc.com/2025/08/23/r...
âProduct proliferation in the ETF market is at its all-time high right now. When you start seeing the flows into non-traditional ETFs take off, generally, that is a contrarian signal that weâre overheating across the market.â www.cnbc.com/2025/08/23/r...
âAmerican greatness has produced a society whose members know not what to do with the freedom and abundance earlier generations secured. We are now witnessing the squandering of this inheritance and it is even more idiotic and vulgar than anyone would expect.â www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2025/0...