Planning, transportation, and economic development. Dem campaign finance in another life. Long suffering Mets, Jets, and Knicks fan. Expect typos. Views are my own.
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Their arrogance is their undoing. Covid-related inflation and they think they have won cultural supremacy. While they admit some of their ideas aren't popular, they want to forge ahead anyway. History will ultimately roll their eyes and laugh at these guys.
It would be a big undertaking, but some idea of what the US House would like like under either: A) Proportional Representation B) The Wyoming Rule I think Americans need to actually see what the alternatives looks like.
While correct in theory, that ship feels like it has sailed. Facebook and Twitter tried fact checking, IDing misinformation, deplatforming, etc., and it didn't work.
a bunch of you really believe that trump is the unstoppable god king who can do whatever he declares and it is dumb as hell
Maybe Bradley would've lost by that much. Maybe she thought she would. She's still an incumbent and Rs won a race there a few years ago. Take nothing for granted.
Electeds have all kinds of legit reasons for not seeking reelection: Family, money, seeing a policy they wanted finally passed, age, etc. Ernst is very youthful for a Senator at 55. Perhaps she just wants out. It is intriguing she has chosen to retire rather than go for another term.
Ernst wouldn't have lost by 12. The race was Likely R, maybe Lean R. Wave environment? Maybe a toss up. It's an uphill battle for Ds.
She could get a gig as ED or President of some WI conservative think tank or org that raises money for Republicans.
Its had high profile elections nearly every year since 2018.
I know specials haven't been great for Rs in the Trump Era but this still seems odd she wouldn't go for it. If Ds win that race, the earliest Rs could get the court back is 2030.
70 is practically prime for a SCOTUS justice. I'd be surprised to see Roberts call it quits. Alito is enjoying the ride of imposing his vision on the US. Thomas wants the record for longest serving justice (will come in '28).
As a 36 year old I am traumatized by this.
I have never seen so many public servants protest the mismanagement of a government. Trumpists will point to this as proof of the deep state, but the reality is that these are professionals who are desperately trying to get the public to understand how bad things are.
Yes, in '02 Rs won the House vote 53-44 and Dems still have a majority of seats 17-15.
TX in 2003 could argue they were *de-gerrymandering* the state. I think Democrats still had a majority of seats despite losing the congressional PV in the state. They still gerrymandered it.
Because it doesn't matter if his approval rating fell to the teens. He's here for another 3.5 years. That's an enternity to businesses. That's multiple quarters where shareholders expect returns (I'm not commenting on the ethics of it).
The best thing Teixeira did in his career was help Texas rob the Braves farm system blind and prevent them from being better for a few years.
Trump 2 is going like what we all thought Trump 1 would go like and we had no idea how many guardrails there were for a complete political novice at that point.
When Dubya left office, he was at like 27%. When Nixon left office, he was around 25%. We're more polarized now. There's only so low a US Presdient will go. If you're at 35%, you're at your base and nothing, it's a horrible approval rating to have.
Lak gets an undue amount of shit from Bluesky users. It's ok for him to have differing views on A) The problems Democrats have and B) The right way to go about fixing them. What he is not though, is some sort of Republican infiltator trying to undermine Democrats.
Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...
Is there a 2013 poll (or even later) that asked Democrats this question of Obama? I would have definitely supported him for a 3rd term while being clear eyed that it wasn't going to happen.
Big no-no of this poll is the question order -- starts out asking if VA is better off since '21 and then asks about "single party rule", then it goes onto favorability, finally horserace. Horse race should always be first.
Why is he suddenly backing off saying he wants them to call him?
We had that in '24 and it didn't matter. The cultural vibe was things are expenisve. People expected prices on groceries and cars to drop. That won't happen. Dems can pounce on that, "Trump's economy sucks" is a winning message given his promises won't come true.
Young isn't stupid. He's playing dumb. This terrifies him to his core. He's a Republican. But at the Atlar of Dear Leader? Silence.
An actual list of names, like Trump provided, would have been better than Garland. Polling doesn't move people, it doesn't matter that people saw him as acceptable. You could've had someone poll at 5% but if those 5% of people got off the couch to vote, you win. It goes beyond "approval."
What? Neither are MD and DC. They're two entities independent of one another. This is the problem, there's no actual reason for DC to not be a state beyond, "I don't want more Democrats in the Senate."
NEW Aug. Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats up 8 pts on the U.S. House generic ballot (49-41), Trump at 41% approval (-15). Most voters say gerrymandering is a problem, and support natl law for redistricting commissions and proportional rep'n.🧵 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
"frequently talked" Nominate somonem put out a list like Trump did, don't just talk. Give us names. Get people excited. Would that have moved masses? No. Would it have moved 100K people in a few midwest states? Maybe.
Leavitt has been getting questions on it and she's bullshitting her way through it as Press Secretary does.
I think Obama should've nominated someone other than Merrick Garland. He could've picked someone who would've lit a fire under the left. Hillary could've said, "Elect me and give me a Senate majority and I'll put this person on SCOTUS." In a close election, that could've mattered.
Its amazing how he can fart his way onto policies I can support. The easier way would be taxing Intel and Nvidia though, but a direct stake? Ok, sure.
I'm very curious to see the what the political environment looks like in OH and IA this cycle. Ground zero for MAGA movement and could offer clues on whether Ds can win these voters back. The IA state Senate election tomorrow could offer a clue.
Seems kinda hard to believe how things went from "it's all terrible" to "we're good!" when literally nothing has changed. Reads like a PR spin.
Not a lot of obese old people, you tend to lose your appetite as you age as your taste buds aren't as strong as they once were. Not surprising to see he's down a lot of weight.
It's objectively a worse logo, but would be "woke" about it?
I assure you, there are many a crazy people to yell at you in downtown Atlanta who are well housed and gainfully employed.
What level does NPB approxmiate? AA? A+?
It's been forgotten, but the minority gains of Trump didn't come out of nowhere. Particularly in his first term, he made real moves to court AA and Latinos, particularly men, it was only the interim and post BLM/Floyd/2020 that we did a 180 in his rhetoric and deed.
If you go by exit polling, out of state migration is more conservative than native born Texas. The maps are R leaning and accurate. Trump won these seats by double digits. Cruz won them by only a few points though. They're based on holding gains among Latinos.
I can't wait for when they're next in the minority and a few crazies start the "Super Freedom Caucus" to do the same thing.
Not the point here, but I am still skeptical these Latino gains can hold to actually give them 5 seats, I think it'll be more like 2 or 3 with the potential to even *lose* one.
I find it ironic that an embrace of mail-in voting might've saved him in '20.
Trying to think of reasons why Amtrak NEC has surged, and if people are looking at expensive flights during times they want to leave, maybe a cost competitive Amtrak is one reason?
No one wants that. MD residents don't want that. DC residents don't want that. Hard as it is to believe, over 200 years of history has happened and they have two distinct identities. No one is seriously asking WV and VA or NC and SC to merge again. It's not a serious proposal.
I'm sure he'll vote against extending the emergency under the terms of the Home Rule Act. Beyond that, this demonstrates *why* DC should have statehood. 700K US Citizens have fewer rights than others.
Washington DC’s 700,000+ residents deserve federal representation. DC statehood now.
Tbf, I picked a prime time, 1030/11 in the morning so it's going to cost the most, but yeah, the days of going to NYC for around $110/$120 seem to be over.
I found flights and Amtraks at similar times for the wknd of 10/17-10/19 (~ 2 mos from now). Flights leave about 1030 Fri & Sun, same as NE Reg trains. Basic on Delta is $247, NE Reg is $224 - to say nothing of being in city and related transportation costs. Cost is now competitive.
My hypothesis is flights along the NEC are more expensive post Covid making the NEC a more cost competitive option for people but I would need to see data comparing the costs of flight in FY25 to even FY22.
Coffee is insane. I usually buy a pack of whatever is on sale for around $10-$12, sometimes as low as $8. Now the bags on sale are $15-$16! The retail price for non premimum brands is around $18-$20.
Trump take game
The internal polling must look abysmal for both of these races. They were uphill battles for Rs the moment Trump won, but the lack of spending at all is interesting. I imagine the PACs will come though.
History may make me look naive and foolish, but the "Trump won't leave" bit is a step too far me. He will whine, he will moan, he will complain, he will tweet, he will threaten, but to not leave office on Jan. 20, 2029 is truly the Rubicon moment. The USA as we know it would be truly dead.
Have any prominent elected Dems committed to dismantling ICE if/when they reclaim power? Because that frankly seems like an absolute bare minimum at this point. You can't just have a massively funded armed gang of hard-right stormtroopers embedded across the country & return to normal.
Is that tagged with a community note that he's her boyfriend?
Last week, Boston received a letter from AG Bondi threatening to prosecute officials and withhold funds unless we cooperate with carrying out mass deportations. The US Attorney General asked for a response by today, so here it is: stop attacking our cities to hide your administration’s failures.
This is just sad man, this is what you've been reduced to? Being Mayor of NYC is one of the worst jobs in the country. How the mighty have fallen.
Perhaps, but I wouldn't put it past this Admin to try.
Honestly surprsied she's going for it rather than looking to 2030. Shapiro is popular and it's not likely to be a good year for Rs and incumbent Govs almost always win. I guess he looks at it as she still has her office if she loses, but a bad loss could set her back.
Out of the best of bad options, I went with Option 2.
This also has secondary of effects of making R candidates for say, Sec. of State, facing constant questions of if they will undermind the voting.
To expand upon this, take VA-02. Since 2018 the Party that wins this district has won the House. City of VA Beach gives Ds their wins here, add in a massive police presence on EDay for "security" and that could swing the seat.
This looks at it wrong. D wins in any state (and most districts) are predicated on massive turnout in cities. Deploying massive police prescence in cities *and* undermining mail in ballots is definitely a winning strategy.
It's an opportunity to become more overtly partisan and liberal as it separates from the NBC brand as well.
The basic position of this Administration is the courts are powerless to stop them. I imagine if Congress was under D control, they'd also argue they're powerless to stop them too.
I don't even thinking *winning* it is enough, he has to find a way to net votes out of it, like several thousand, perhaps as many as 10K. Needs to cancel out a bunch of small, rural counties.
NY Ds were dominant at the Federal level for decades but had to share power with Rs at the state level basically until 2018 when the IDC ended. They've spent the last 7 years pretending Rs coming back into power was in any way possible under current conditions.
this is just straight-up dictatorship and it’s repulsive and pathetic our newspapers and TV stations still won’t say so. there is no emergency. there is no precedent for this in US history. Trump is establishing military and paramilitary control of the capital
Occurs to me that Trump's entire regime consolidation strategy is to persuade everyone through displays of force that the regime is already consolidated and there's no point in resisting. Which I don't think will work, but also shows how important public acts of noncompliance are.
Honestly, I don't think Trump is thinking about the politics. It's about power.
The TX Gerrymander is predicated on Rs holding the Hispanic gains of the Trump Era.
If Ford hadn't pardoned Nixon, he likely wins in '76 and then we look back on the rockin 80s of Ted Kennedy's presidency. Clinton similarly got lucky to ride out the dot com boom. Both Reagan and Clinton were good politicians, but they benefited from macroeconomic factors out of their control.
They're not dumb, they know who is going to win.
Democrats need to start calling out this SCOTUS for what it is: The enforcement arm of the Republican Party. There's simply no reason to respect them and they should campaign hard on massive changes. The only thing Article III says is there must be a SCOTUS, it is silent on its composition.
Can't really disagree with these ratings, although I might push AK and FL to Likely R as opposed to Safe.
I know Harris County has been a bit of a Lucy taking the football for TX Ds, but it's a place that could easily be supercharged next year.
Multiple times this year I’ve had coffee with fellow immigrants who grew up in corrupt third world countries and the shared sentiment has been that Americans don’t understand how bad things are going to get.
It's like 6 months early, she was out in January anyway. It really doesn't change anything.
Flights and hotels are absolutely insane nowadays. There are factors that go into that beyond Trump, but Dems might as well blame him anyway. That's what Republicans would do.
Given how he got immunity from SCOTUS as well, he also could've spent the rest of his days doing all of this without being President and people would've fondly remembered him as, "Yes, he was corrupt, but the economy was so good!"
www.congress.gov/bill/117th-c...
FWIW, I find the VA map to be only marginally fair and somewhat boosts Rs. VA-02 should be slightly more D leaning. The modal outcome should be a 7-4 delegation with 6-5 only after good R years. 7-4 would only happen after a good D year.
Burgum isn't this stupid. He's just parroting bullshit here. Why shouldn't US want to be a leader in solar energy anyway? It's growing and there's money to be made from it.
Apples and oranges coalitions. Dems won a lot of WWC seats that cycle. They flipped MT! OH Dems had their best cycle in years (haven't matched since).
Nothing. All these law firms just assume the Democrats won't do that.
What would this map look like under the 2018 vote?
How can you possibly give a shit about the moral high ground? Who cares? You're not winning anyone with that stance.
I have no time for this crap from any of these people. They should all be primaried.
Seeing how aggressively Trump has gone after CBS and ABC, not even partisan networks, the next D Pres should go after Fox and other right news outlets for defamation.
This plan has 10 Democratic leaning districts according to 2020 vote, 8 by the 2024 vote. But it also has 4 R leaning districts easily within reach of Dems in a blue wave election like 2018. At first blush this plan does not deliver the hype as expected since Texas already has a strong R gerrymander
I will also add this might not be a bad strategy! The R gains for Latino voters in TX pre-date '24, there was a trend dating back to '20. It could hit them in the face though. I'm curious how Cruz did in these districts.
For El Paso, you have to put the D voters somewhere, better to make it a pack. It also makes sense, where else are you going to coax these seats from and make the R incumbents happy? It has to be the Latino gains which do pre-date '24.
4 of these are Latino-districts apparently, Rs are hoping they hold onto the '24 gains otherwise you're looking at maybe one more seat they'll coax out of it.
It'll be up to '28 D primary voters. I will not vote for a primary candidate unless they give me some plan to aggressively reform this stacked and corrupt court system.
Our system really can't survive this onslaught if the other branches, controlled by the same Party, merely shrug. All of this "blocking" of funding is illegal. It's not the WH's decision what money gets spent on. That's the crux of our system.
It is wild seeing what Cleveland got for 3 months of Sabathia in '08.
I look forward to Fox News having one when they settle with a future D admin for defamation.