PPP released a poll testing four match-ups in Iowa's Senate race, and a Democrat is within 2% of Joni Ernst in the four configurations tested. Zach Wahls is up 45/43 and other Dems are down 1 or 2. drive.google.com/file/d/1JhjW...
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Yeah I’ve seen this before. Ernst was definitely going to lose last time. No doubts. Let’s revisit next summer.
aug 25, 2025, 3:35 pm • 1 0 • view
i don't think anyone thought she was definitely going to lose in 2020, but worth thinking that 2026 could certainly be 4-6 points bluer than 2020.
aug 25, 2025, 5:32 pm • 1 0 • view
She only won by about 6% in 2020, so a close race makes sense if we assume 2026 is going to do its midterm thing and be a good year for Dems generally
aug 25, 2025, 3:25 pm • 13 0 • view
6% is a pretty big win. All we heard last time is we had a great chance to flip this seat.
aug 25, 2025, 3:35 pm • 2 0 • view
It's a couple points less than Trump's margin of victory there the same year. Obviously not saying she's a goner by any means, but I'm willing to believe she may be shakier ground now than she was then
aug 25, 2025, 3:43 pm • 4 0 • view
Whoever ends up running against her absolutely has to hammer on the "We're all going to die" thing and what the Medicaid cuts are going to be doing to rural hospitals.
aug 25, 2025, 5:26 pm • 4 0 • view
doesn't this show that Ernst is slipping? He's now within 1 point of people he was 4 points over just a couple months ago
aug 25, 2025, 3:22 pm • 0 0 • view
Ernst has little personal loyalty and needs voters who will default to the party to come home in the end, but on the plains they usually do. If it is gonna hapoen this is a good start, but if we're seeing it this time next year this pattern makes her heavily favored
aug 25, 2025, 3:43 pm • 1 0 • view
That said, of the specials we've seen this cycle Iowa has had some wild 20+ point swings blue, the idea something is happening under the surface specifically here has some backing
aug 25, 2025, 3:45 pm • 1 0 • view
it's certainly not impossible but recall the narrative about Ernst exactly 5 yrs ago lol
aug 25, 2025, 3:29 pm • 0 0 • view
Exactly.
aug 25, 2025, 3:36 pm • 1 0 • view
everyone thought she was toast; then wins by almost 7%
aug 25, 2025, 3:30 pm • 0 0 • view
yeah I'm not optimistic.
aug 25, 2025, 3:30 pm • 1 0 • view
*She
aug 25, 2025, 3:29 pm • 1 0 • view
I'm very curious to see the what the political environment looks like in OH and IA this cycle. Ground zero for MAGA movement and could offer clues on whether Ds can win these voters back. The IA state Senate election tomorrow could offer a clue.
aug 25, 2025, 3:59 pm • 10 1 • view
Was just going to say that last part. Very interested to see what happens there.
aug 25, 2025, 4:12 pm • 4 0 • view
Maybe Iowans prefer healthcare over Ernst's plan to let everyone die.
aug 25, 2025, 9:55 pm • 2 1 • view
The winds are blowing for Dems in Iowa, tomorrow is the third IA special election of the year, Dems have not just won, but overperformed in the previous 2. If Dems win the third it breaks the IA GOP supermajority. I'm hesitant to hope but this is the biggest left shift in the state since Obama.
aug 25, 2025, 5:19 pm • 9 2 • view