Feel vindicated in my hypothesis that the depths of corruption of this family are such that the easiest way to get an early warning into Trump kicking the bucket is to watch the memecoin market
Co-founder, Survey 160. Loves survey and voter participation. Researcher. Democrat. YIMBY. Husband and Dad. Opinion haver and measurer. Outdoors and cooking enthusiast. He/Him
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Feel vindicated in my hypothesis that the depths of corruption of this family are such that the easiest way to get an early warning into Trump kicking the bucket is to watch the memecoin market
It's really quite a thing to have a Secretary of Energy who does not understand, ummm... energy.
this is a great point.
It's definitely Schmittian, but Eric Schmitt or Carl Schmitt?
Just noting that these sprays are already available in pharmacies, over the counter.
Declaration of Independence, Grievance 11: "He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures." Grievance 12: "He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power."
TFW you have 75 slides for a 60 minute presentation and don’t know what to cut … *sigh*
What? I guess I turned off the presser early
If mail-in voting delegitimizes elections, I have bad news for the liberal bastion of Utah.
This is the real story most mainstream journalists are missing. Ppl are setting up neighborhood watch groups to patrol their block, volunteers are accompanying migrants to school/work, etc. and much of this is happening organically as well as being organized by @freedcproject.bsky.social #FreeDC
A few more shots of ivermectin should do it, guys
So far this proof of life press conference is going about as well as the proof of life photo with Jon Gruden (that was taken a week earlier)
There's no vaccine for Hand Foot and Mouth. We need more childhood vaccination, not less www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Thank you, Dan, for going around asking white people for their proof of legal immigration status.
Since @aedwardslevy.bsky.social wants people to post their work: I'm assembling a list of most-used response scales of the last 20 years to speed question ingest. Survey says: Yes/No Approve/Disapprove Favor/Oppose Agree/Disagree Very closely, Fairly closely, Not too closely, Not at all closely
What portion of the sample was this? Honestly this fits some other things I've seen, but it needs to be more in the conversation, especially about the use of verified voter surveys in the "what if everyone voted" debate
In my NORC 2024 panel, respondents who didn't match to the voter file were *18.5 percentage points* more pro-Trump than the sample overall. My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.
he was also forcing his posts, or at least some of them, into the notifications tab, but again, i'm not a current user
fair question, my understanding is that reverse chronological is no longer default so you have to at least click away from what elon wants you to see, but I too am no longer a user
See, the folly is in wanting reach as opposed to wanting good conversations
You don't like scolds on Bluesky? Cool, you can definitely do something about that. You don't like Elon Musk on X? Good luck
The great thing about Bluesky is you can customize your feed, so if you don't like the people you're hearing from, you have a great deal of ability to change that, from muting to super-blocking to custom algorithims. The same cannot be said of X, the timeline of which is constructed by Musk
Join us later this month for a webinar on best practices for text surveys! (Also, I may recently gotten one year older, but I promise you that's not a photo of me)
Come for the empirics, stay for the political theory
Important Kevin Munger: "The temporal validity issues that I have been screaming about in the study of digital media are radically accelerated when it comes to LLMs." kevinmunger.substack.com/p/ai-as-norm...
Bumping for the morning crowd
Committed to rooting out antisemitism in higher education (except for the part where he was a Hitler fan-boy). www.bostonglobe.com/2025/09/02/m...
if you're saying you "may" declare an emergency at some point in the future, it's not an emergency. Emergencies demand urgent action--they aren't something you can say you might deal with in the future. This is another phony "emergency" the trump admin could claim in an effort to consolidate power
He doesn’t have the power to do this, the name is established by law. But also the old War Department never included the Navy. It’s really not correct to say War was renamed to Defense, that’s not what happened. A new thing was created (briefly under another name, NME) by the War + Navy unification.
I guess this is one way to stop people speculating about his health and instead get them angry about something else
While still photos and short video clips taken at a distance, there hasn’t been video of Trump speaking to the camera in an unusually long time (for him). So however this goes should be interesting
In the midst of the Labor Day weekend, the Trump administration continued trying to make Donald Trump’s fascism happen. What I saw in response, though, was heartening — on multiple fronts. Tonight, at Law Dork:
Just a reminder, if they deserve it, you absolutely should speak ill of the dead. Also, the living
Since a lot of people are going to be going into the field right after Labor Day, you might want to stick a Vance question on that survey instrument
I don’t know what Trump’s mysterious announcement is tomorrow at 2, but re-upping this
WH just posted.. this youtu.be/SXGIN7Er9Y0?...
Wow imagine that
Results so stunningly clear they inspired this classic xkcd (xkcd.com/2400/):
Serious eats recipe, minus some of the sugar
I actually smoked the ribs a few weeks ago, froze them, and warmed them back up sous vide. Still very good, but I think the collards and beans were actually the star of the show.
Tis the season
I’m sorry but facts don’t care about your feelings. If you are blaming Democrats in 2025 for COVID policy in 2020 you have been brainwashed by Trumpism and the death of expertise. The basic point is that Trump associated COVID with his fate in office. That’s it. press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
It would be really good for @nytimes.com Cooking to re publish the plum torte recipe with gram weighs
Great, rational piece on Trump’s possible health issues.
As the U.S. celebrates Labor Day, what do voters think about the working poor? In POQ, Benjamin Newman shows that most blame structural problems for poverty among workers – but that race and personal experience shape views too. Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
A House Committee can subpoena ICE's payroll records and a Representative can read them into the Congressional record with total immunity.
They should also ban federal agents wearing masks while interacting with the public, so securing such a list would be for a legitimate legislative purpose
A 76% point gap between how satisfied Republicans are with the country versus how satisfied Democrats are. The largest partisan gap ever. news.gallup.com/poll/694370/...
Defense counsel for everyone arrested in DC
If Democrats retake a chamber of Congress they should use investigatory powers to release the names of ICE officers so the public can shame them properly. At least the ones wearing masks
If you want to find that @brendannyhan.bsky.social line made actual—what would you say if you saw it in another country?—look no further than global headlines & front page stories about the US. The world isn't missing what's happening here. (See alt-text for translation)
They are having FBI agents tell MPD to give traffic tickets rather than have FBI investigate corruption, Russian spies, or terrorist plots
DC communities are joyful, powerful— and we're under attack. "But, what can I do?" Glad you asked! Check this out or check out tons of opportunities on the full calendar here ⬇️
This is why it is incumbent upon all of us to pierce the illusion of righteousness that they have built. Grind down their self image to a pulp and force them to face the reality of the evil they are perpetrating, that no one sees them as good or honorable and they will be shunned by history
Tulsi Gabbard is *very obviously* a foreign intelligence asset and I hope we all live long enough to see her tried and convicted for it.
You don't like it? Quit. Walk in the office, turn in your ID and walk out. There's other jobs you can get as a lawyer or law enforcement officer. Don't like being demoralized? Then stop doing immoral things. And don't say you're just following orders, you're making a choice every day to do this.
"How do I look my self in the mirror" is something I think a lot of government employees engaged in tearing families apart and ruining lives need to consider Maybe that's why so many of them are wearing masks.
And be sure when you take a pic of it and post it to social media that you don’t confess to doing it yourself. It’s never “I did this” or “Look what I did.” It’s always “SOMEONE did this” or “Look what SOMEONE did.”
Remember, folks, it is a CRIME to draw with sidewalk chalk on the streets and sidewalks of Washington DC so when you do it be sure to invoke your Fifth Amendment right to remain silent if asked about it. #ChalkCrime
No horserace?
Washington is a GREAT city and it's great to remind everyone of that, no matter how much the resident of 1600 Penn NW tries to convince folks otherwise.
Also NE and NH, thinking about this a bit more
And honestly KY could wait until Beshear decides he’s going to be a team player and run for Senate. TX, but only if Paxton wins the primary
Someone should start fielding tracking surveys in GA, ME, IA, NC, OH, and KY starting, like Tuesday
And hold Georgia
And this doesn’t even include the time the National Guard T-boned a guy in his car with an MRAP
When your code works but no idea how
This is the way
Pure fucking evil. Everyone involved in this shit needs to be held accountable.
I haven’t said anything I wouldn’t say to their face again
Must be Gruden’s favorite golf outfit since he wore it last week at Trump’s club in Virginia.
Love to see it
Every time they show up they aren’t just following orders, they are making a choice. They can and should make different choices
To be clear, I’m saying that all DC residents should use our first amendment rights to belittle and humiliate any federal agent you see on the street until they don’t want to show their face in public, and then double down when they hide their faces. Make them yearn for unemployment
not just that he has no constitutional authority, there isn't even any particular legal or institutional mechanism by which the president can make anyone treat this as anything other than a weird advisory opinion.
Congestion pricing is actually the perfect example here. Trump declared that “congestion pricing is dead” (and that he is the king) Hochul and the MTA told him to fuck off, and now, more than 6 months later, congestion pricing is still alive and working exactly as planned
Look, if I was trying to consolidate power as an aspiring authoritarian I would not try to not create a second bonus army, but I guess this is how Trump is built different
Let me add to this: Demoralize them. They're doing bad things at the orders of bad people, and they need to be told that over and over again until they can't bear to do the job anymore.
Residents are finding all sorts of ways to fight ICE: They're recording and reporting. They're wheatpasting and sharing know-your-rights materials. And they're stepping up to care for each other, from delivering groceries to walking kids to school. 51st.news/dc-residents...
NEW: A week or so ago, one federal agent kept popping up in videos from Trump's violent DC crackdown—so @jsweetli.bsky.social and I investigated. Turns out he's a 26-year-old US Parks Police officer, a lesser known law enforcement unit currently championed by Interior Sec. Doug Burnum. Our report:
One of the way they are making us less safe in DC is initiating police chases and causing crashes: www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...
Simone de Beauvoir laser eyes.gif
Gift link to my op-ed ( @wearehighered.bsky.social ) share.inquirer.com/M8nPzg
The extent to which ICE is ignoring all civil rights and due process is astounding — and indicative of a culture where they’ve been told they can do literally no wrong. Agency and admin leaders must face sanctions and legal consequences.
But it's the truth: the choice is between a small-d democratic coalition — one in which a majority either supports or is sympathetic to the causes we're talking about – and a fascist authoritarian regime that will use every tool at its disposal — including violence — to suppress vulnerable "others."
Pro-democracy politicians will *fail* if they don't have space to form alliances with people who don't share our beliefs and room to blunt successful wedge issues. That sucks.
🧵 Authoritarianism, Democratization, and Coalition Politics. The consensus around here is, more or less, that the United States is currently a consolidating authoritarian regime controlled by a mix of reactionary populists and fascists.
The American Academy of Pediatrics: Infants ages 6 months to 2 years should get a COVID vaccination. A baby's first encounter should be with the vaccine, not the virus. npr.org/2025/08/20/n...
Get yourself a better than average Dem strategist.
patch rather, not badge
It's definitely a special response team badge, but multiple agencies have units with that name
Donald Trump is probably not imminently dying, despite the weird hand thing. All the same, it seems useful for pollsters to maybe throw a Vance approval question on your surveys just in case
One had this patch, maybe someone here can id it
There were about 6 federal officer of unknown division (one had a SRT patch but unclear which). They were not masked but didn’t identify their agency. Neighbors fanned out blocks away to divert cars, and eventually they packed up and went home. One of them in a car without a visible license plate
Federal officers are not wearing masks, but are driving around in cars (at least one was) without license plates, literally from a checkpoint that MPD claimed wasn’t about the occupation but was about safe driving
Takoma DC neighbors, there is an ICE checkpoint near the Whole Foods, approximately Elder street on Georgia. If you’re around go (a) warn our neighbors and (b) go shame these masked occupiers
The only good justification for this I can imagine is if Trump is making a secret trip to Ukraine (or another war zone, as past presidents have done). But I dunno, seems more likely to me that he's sick and trying to hide it from the public (which also happened in his first term)?
New study by @brendannyhan.bsky.social, @jasonreifler.bsky.social & colleagues demonstrates that prebunking election fraud rumors — by warning about anticipated false claims & filling conceptual gaps that those claims exploit — helps to reduce belief in falsehoods: www.science.org/content/arti...