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Luke Kawa

@ljkawa.bsky.social

Markets, Twain, Leafs, Survivor

created April 27, 2023

4,981 followers 204 following 2,058 posts

view profile on Bluesky

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Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Morgan Stanley AI tech beneficiaries basket -5.5% in past two sessions, its worst two-day drubbing since the period immediately following April 2’s “Liberation Day”

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2/9/2025, 8:24:08 PM | 9 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture angel (@spx.fyi) reposted reply parent

basically if you can’t meme it, you do not understand something well

2/9/2025, 7:19:03 PM | 1 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

just about trying to capture essence of a story in a more palpably identifiable way to make the actual copy more readily understandable

2/9/2025, 7:18:38 PM | 1 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

living up to my year-long edict of “more and more on short posts I find myself thinking ‘don’t write the post until you know the meme you can post with it first’”

2/9/2025, 7:15:55 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Nvidia falls as the chip designer pushes back against "erroneous chatter" of supply constraints sherwood.news/markets/nvid... $NVDA

2/9/2025, 7:09:12 PM | 15 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Circle’s recent post-IPO secondary was basically providing a liquidity event for major holders too, based on the terms of its prospectus

2/9/2025, 5:49:48 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

been on this for a bit sherwood.news/markets/why-...

2/9/2025, 5:48:00 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Their ipo was not a 180d expiry, had different terms

2/9/2025, 5:31:26 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

“August was another record month for SPX 0DTE options trading, averaging ~2.4M contracts a day and making up a record 62.4% of overall SPX volume” -Cboe

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2/9/2025, 3:39:49 PM | 21 9 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Magnetar dialed down its CoreWeave position and put on the Mark Cuban collar trade sherwood.news/markets/core... $CRWV

2/9/2025, 3:08:34 PM | 3 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

CoreWeave’s general counsel Kristen McVeety is living the fcking dream. Joins the company in March 22, just sold all her direct position for $30 million and has another ~$9M chilling in a grantor-retained annuity trust. You would never see me again (I’d still post tho)

2/9/2025, 2:52:51 PM | 28 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

🎶Stay below 5. Stay below 5. Ai ai ai ai stay below fiiiii-eyi-iiiiiii-eyi-iiiiiiiive🎶

2/9/2025, 1:37:46 PM | 5 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Bouts of stock market volatility as US 30-year yields push briskly towards/above 5% have been common but also more brief/limited with each occurrence

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2/9/2025, 1:34:59 PM | 7 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

say what you will about man u, you need a triple shot of caffeine to still be awake watching liverpool-arsenal

31/8/2025, 4:32:50 PM | 8 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

BLOW THE DAMN WHISTLE

30/8/2025, 4:05:15 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Arsenal fans in shambles

30/8/2025, 4:01:28 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

BALL DON'T LIE WOOOOOOOOO

30/8/2025, 4:00:36 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Zirkzee just lacks the quality

30/8/2025, 3:46:07 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Send the firefighters home.

30/8/2025, 3:30:07 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

What did I say about Dalot tucking in?!!?!?

30/8/2025, 3:21:35 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

PUT OUT THE FIRE

30/8/2025, 3:20:44 PM | 5 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Burn it all down.

30/8/2025, 3:19:08 PM | 5 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Amad. My dude. Come onnnnnnnn

30/8/2025, 2:51:01 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Our right side is formulaic but oh so powerful and our left side is fluid and completely unpredictable, this is beautiful.

30/8/2025, 2:47:18 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Wtaf I love Mason Mount now

30/8/2025, 2:41:55 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

He played 90 mins so now he can't play 60 it seems

30/8/2025, 2:41:45 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

It's kinda gone to shit with cunha out tho

30/8/2025, 2:38:30 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

I mean yeah but this is the most interesting way I've seen him try to have a build up and shape when we lose the ball in which Casemiro isn't really called up to do much in either

30/8/2025, 2:37:37 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Dalot is playing up high. Shaw is gonna drift up wide. Mason is tucking in as legs in midfield. This looks....good?

30/8/2025, 2:30:24 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Opendoor’s new strategy: engage with its retail audience and do some of the things they’re asking $OPEN sherwood.news/markets/open...

29/8/2025, 4:01:22 PM | 5 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Alibaba AI chip in development the latest sign of China testing unchartered waters: “just how much AI development can we do without Nvidia?” sherwood.news/markets/nvid...

29/8/2025, 2:49:30 PM | 4 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

China: “We’ll figure out how to make it up in volume with AI chips before y’all agree on digging up enough more rare earths”

29/8/2025, 2:36:23 PM | 11 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

to repeat, calling this a goat rodeo is an insult to talented goats

29/8/2025, 1:40:53 PM | 11 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

SUPER MICRO WARNS THAT IT STILL HAS ACCOUNTING PROBLEMS I think the only way to be a cheap AI-linked stock is to have a multi-year run of accounting issues that just happen to coincide with an inability to hit sales targets. sherwood.news/markets/supe... $SMCI

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29/8/2025, 1:39:56 PM | 15 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Pretty much the only way to make Nvidia’s sales look anything less than amazeballs is to compare it to itself. And on that note, its sales surprise -- in $ terms -- is now lower than it was when the AI boom kicked off. sherwood.news/markets/nvid... $NVDA

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28/8/2025, 5:53:17 PM | 7 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

A week with Nvidia earnings and the attempted firing of a Federal Reserve official is running with S&P 500 realized vol of sub-2 so far.

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28/8/2025, 1:11:07 PM | 17 4 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

@sellingtheta.bsky.social theta bait

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28/8/2025, 1:08:07 PM | 7 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Isaiah Bishop (@isaiahbishop.bsky.social) reposted

its managed to be more boring than i thought possible

28/8/2025, 1:01:06 PM | 8 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Wall Street is going with a “keep calm and carry on (raising price targets)” mantra following Nvidia’s ho-hum Q2 earnings sherwood.news/markets/trad... $NVDA

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28/8/2025, 12:56:45 PM | 10 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

I am glad to be a source of joy for people

28/8/2025, 10:38:42 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Where is Nvidia currently trading in after-hours? oh, you know, about $176.50, not too far off max pain for Friday’s expiry

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27/8/2025, 9:49:57 PM | 16 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

When’s the last time anyone heard Jensen be this low energy? More like JEBsen....

27/8/2025, 9:40:18 PM | 11 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

i can’t say “burn it to the ground” bc we’re clearly already six feet under

27/8/2025, 9:38:54 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

lol we lost on PKs

27/8/2025, 9:38:26 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

If demand > supply is what’s going on, shouldn’t CoreWeave get bid up like crazy on Nvidia data center revenue misses?

27/8/2025, 9:15:12 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

US government will get the 15% of H20 sales in the mail along with the $550 billion from Japan.

27/8/2025, 9:10:50 PM | 21 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Nvidia’s net other income alone (i.e. CoreWeave) would be the 44th most profitable member of the S&P 500, a smidge behind McDonald’s. sherwood.news/markets/nvid...

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27/8/2025, 9:08:18 PM | 13 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

CoreWeave’s killer run played a big role in juicing Nvidia’s $2.2 billion “net other income” in Q2 $CRWV $NVDA

27/8/2025, 8:39:08 PM | 9 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

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27/8/2025, 7:45:53 PM | 9 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

more like OUTEOS. Or adios.

27/8/2025, 7:43:26 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

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27/8/2025, 7:42:16 PM | 17 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Well, we’ll be even rested for Premier League games now.

27/8/2025, 7:38:50 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

www.youtube.com/watch?v=P41g...

27/8/2025, 7:38:05 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

If Man United were a stock it’d be a value trap that tumbles 20% after somehow missing the very low bar for earnings

27/8/2025, 7:33:52 PM | 8 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

i miss him

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27/8/2025, 7:26:31 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Things are looking Grim(sby)

27/8/2025, 7:25:54 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture it’s me, aubrey plaza accord (@sellingtheta.bsky.social) reposted

30/12/2024, 8:27:12 PM | 13 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

i hate my life

27/8/2025, 7:22:37 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

funny you should ask... sherwood.news/markets/nvid...

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27/8/2025, 7:12:42 PM | 10 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Straight into my veins

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27/8/2025, 3:16:34 PM | 10 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Morgan Stanley has a very interesting way of forecasting AWS revenue growth: mapping it onto how much data center square footage Amazon’s adding. $AMZN sherwood.news/markets/morg...

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27/8/2025, 3:05:44 PM | 11 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Taylor Swift Day 2 markets coverage got me ready for a run like

27/8/2025, 3:03:31 PM | 9 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Signet Jewelers jumps as the stock basks in the 🎶Afterglow🎶 of Taylor Swift’s engagement to Travis Kelce. $SIG At 10:20 a.m. ET, daily accumulated volumes were about 8x their one-month average. sherwood.news/markets/sign...

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27/8/2025, 3:02:29 PM | 16 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

🎶What's a girl gonna do? A diamond's gotta shine🎶 Signet Jewelers up 4.6% today after T-Swift/Kelce engagement

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27/8/2025, 2:15:47 PM | 5 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

American Eagle soars after announcing collaboration with Travis Kelce (Taylor Swift’s fiancé) sherwood.news/markets/amer...

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27/8/2025, 2:10:46 PM | 6 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

If Nvidia’s expected post-earnings swing in market cap were a company, it’d be the 32nd-largest stock in the S&P 500. sherwood.news/markets/here...

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27/8/2025, 12:58:04 PM | 5 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Jensen Huang’s going to have to announce a merger with Apple to get my attention at this rate

26/8/2025, 6:53:22 PM | 9 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Uh, quiet part out loud, dude *TRUMP: WILL HAVE MAJORITY SHORTLY ON FED

26/8/2025, 6:49:27 PM | 28 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Brilliant Earth +20% on T-Swift/Kelce engagement sherwood.news/markets/sign...

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26/8/2025, 6:44:38 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

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26/8/2025, 6:28:54 PM | 6 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Whatever happened to “I love shiny things but I’d marry you with paper rings”?!?!? sherwood.news/markets/sign...

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26/8/2025, 6:21:05 PM | 33 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Shares of Signet Jewelers briefly popped after the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce engagement announcement

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26/8/2025, 5:46:28 PM | 11 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

I’m very happy for them!

26/8/2025, 5:36:36 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

More references to Howard Lutnick than Scott Bessent in news articles for three straight sessions, first time that’s happened since March

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26/8/2025, 1:12:14 PM | 41 6 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Usually, Wall Street waits until Nvidia reports stellar results to hike price targets en masse. This time, they’re front-running the Q2 results. The average price target is up 7.7% over the past month, the fastest growth this year. $NVDA sherwood.news/markets/wall...

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26/8/2025, 12:30:42 PM | 14 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

More like Sydney Swooney sherwood.news/markets/amer...

25/8/2025, 3:06:01 PM | 13 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

...well then

24/8/2025, 4:08:19 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

The sad part is Casemiro is a couple years younger than me. I've become that guy.

24/8/2025, 4:06:58 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

GOD BLESS VAR

24/8/2025, 4:06:30 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

The year is 2057. The head of Casemiro, encased in a solution of formaldehyde, is starting as a six for United.

24/8/2025, 2:39:49 PM | 11 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Best day for $XLY (consumer discretionary sector ETF) since May 12 -- the China trade truce

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22/8/2025, 8:07:20 PM | 6 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

TFW you wake up, are fed bacon, then it's time for a nap

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22/8/2025, 3:51:18 PM | 7 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

...and meme stocks up 5.5%

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22/8/2025, 3:04:31 PM | 6 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Most short up 4.7%

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22/8/2025, 3:03:58 PM | 3 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Retail favorites up 3.2%

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22/8/2025, 3:03:25 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Non-profitable tech up 4.6%

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22/8/2025, 3:02:13 PM | 15 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Powell seemingly answered a) today with “no” and with nod to “policy in restrictive territory” gave a signal as to when b) enters the equation

22/8/2025, 2:27:16 PM | 11 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Smooth brain: non-committal and data dependent into 70% cut pricing would be bearish

22/8/2025, 12:58:14 PM | 7 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest.bsky.social) reposted

everything which CEOs claim about remote working is actually true of AI...

21/8/2025, 8:17:34 PM | 42 7 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

S&P 500 quietly ties its longest losing streak since April 2024.

21/8/2025, 8:25:38 PM | 29 6 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

If I were Powell I would simply do this instead of gritting my teeth and staying on as a governor www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJax...

21/8/2025, 5:31:32 PM | 18 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

is that up yet?

21/8/2025, 3:07:15 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

Now, the reason I can’t quite go overboard with that take is because a) who wants to read about boring b) their option activity still exists and is very much a combo of YOLO + overwriting that index exposure with 0DTEs

21/8/2025, 3:02:29 PM | 8 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

In aggregate, retail traders have been selling single stocks and buying index ETFs this year, arguably adopting a much more boring and traditionally-espoused approach, something that you read about precisely never. (per JPM data)

21/8/2025, 3:00:27 PM | 41 7 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

the acronyms in food and bev never fail to blow my mind and i hate most of them....THIS is an except

20/8/2025, 4:35:37 PM | 2 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Palantir from >10% above its 20-day moving average to >10% below its 20-day moving average in less than five trading days $PLTR

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20/8/2025, 3:56:01 PM | 12 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Rani Molla (@rani.bsky.social) reposted

The share of Amazon orders including groceries have more than doubled in the last decade. Expect that to grow with Amazon’s free same-day grocery announcement sherwood.news/tech/grocery...

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20/8/2025, 3:45:08 PM | 9 4 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

what’s in a nAIme? Rough couple days for companies that are trying very hard to remind you they’re in the AI business by literally having “AI” in their name. sherwood.news/markets/addi...

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20/8/2025, 3:25:10 PM | 14 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social)

Bank of America’s US AI beneficiaries basket cleanly through the 50-day for first time since April.

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20/8/2025, 2:35:18 PM | 30 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) reply parent

i will say there is a lot in this that makes me go “i like the cut of this guy’s jib.” Separately I’ve also reverted back to the “use target ranges for inflation to allow, these point targets do more harm than good” idea

20/8/2025, 2:23:47 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view