Feels like vol laundering. First it'll be semiannual, then annual. And economic data will be next.
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Feels like vol laundering. First it'll be semiannual, then annual. And economic data will be next.
President Grant, in twilight of his term, famously pined for a ballroom so he could twirl away the challenges of Reconstruction.
Can you do a Fascism one?
This regime has turned Prof. Wolfers into Milton Friedman. Amazing.
The Revolution succeeded b/c other states didn't do nothing while Massachusetts got pummeled. Feels like coordination failure happening here.
Everything this guy says could have come out of Archie Bunker (or your ignoramus uncle's) mouth.
Nice to see a chief exec who, in response to an emergency, doesn't shift blame or lash out, but takes charge with a steady hand.
For Miran: if tariffs aren't inflationary, why were the supply shocks of COVID or any large change in relative prices?
He treats events he can't turn into a reality TV segment like he's a helpless spectator. Hard to imagine any other modern-era President whining publicly about being conspired against, as opposed to, you know, doing something about it.
Enough w/ the vague claims. Just say "he wants to control money printing." Ditto for "authoritarianism." Just say "he wants all power for himself." Nobody gets the high-minded rhetoric.
Sending southern troops to Northern cities. Somewhere Jeff Davis is smiling.
"Southern MAGA governors to send troops to northern cities at behest of doughface President in violation of Grant-Lee surrender agreement."
Boomers decided ruining the environment and long-term gov. fiscal outlook wasn't enough.
Southern MAGA govs are reversing Reconstruction: sending southern troops into northern cities to harass (and worse) minority groups.
No one said putting the army everywhere would not reduce crime. Can we please stop saying it’s working as if that’s surprising? The problem is that it’s prohibitively costly in economic and social-fabric terms. That’s why free societies don’t do it.
Similarly, if this gang thinks defense firms need capital, they could just buy a defense ETF. The spectacular outperformance of these vehicles however suggests that the private sector is meeting this need just fine thank you. But of course this is about total control, not remedying a mkt failure.
One (nonuniform) version of that would be buying an index fund!
Media seems unaware of the security-freedom tradeoff. Of course martial law reduces crime. It also reduces freedom and is unsustainably costly.
Nor historians.
No degree / innumerate: Cabinet Secretary
Chance Vance certifies if he loses: 0%
A reminder that modeling political parties as existing to win elections isn't a bad assumption.
Not entirely right. Economy was expanding in 1992, though job growth was sluggish. No one thought the economy was a wreck at the time.
Donald Doughface.
He'll keep violating norms and trashing our social infrastructure until markets punish him. Unfortunately they're sleeping.
Civil War, too.
"...the future"? He's confusing museums with Epcot.
I feel like its settled that the broad Ms don't have a stable relationship with future AD as short-run money demand varies. And of course the Fed doesn't control them anyway. Other than that...
Didn't a political army end the Roman republic?
Make your own assumptions about potential GDP or the natural rate of interest, and you can get any real FF you want.
How about doesn't make its way into trend (median) inflation? Median's still elevated, but a further rise would suggest that tariffs are passing through to core.
Since they're now up to their eyeballs in rent seeking, where would they find the time anyway?
Trend inflation (proxied by median) is actually running well above that now, and has been for some time. Their forecast sounds optimistic.
why the hell did i take monetary theory if this is how we're going to run monetary policy from now on? all those lovely little models...
He may have been a bit slow to recognize that trend inflation was rising in 2021-22, but his heroism in defending the Fed's independence should earn him a place in the pantheon of great central bankers. And it's not a large pantheon.
Is he not their president too? They are citizens!
On the bright side, the next 3.5 years of GDP, inflation, and employment estimates are now available on FRED.
Kind of sad to see the sun setting on a mostly successful era independent monetary policymaking.
At least he didn't say "pleasure"
Americans are bored, innumerate gamblers. - Cliff Asness
Thoughts on the WSJ poll today? Noticed that they texted ppl, asking them to take the poll online. Sounds like that could introduce bias but maybe its widely done and easily corrected for.
Good thing we didn't elect that Communist Harris - we might have had political officers at companies, colleges, and law firms.
Fed doesn't control M2, though. Monetary base, which it does control, is up a less ominous 0.3% Y/Y. Multiplier (M2/Base) has been "trending" up.
Help a nonacademic out here. Are MMT ppl reasoning from M/P = L(y,r) where dL/dr < 0, thus higher r leads to lower L and thus higher P?
At least won't be any need for sophisticated statistical or narrative analysis to get the bottom of the next great inflation.
Wait until he watches Valkyrie.
CPI 36,000
When you've just mindlessly imitating past policy changes that preceded decent growth (e.g., Reagan tax cuts), you don't know enough to realize you're contradicting yourself.
Totally agree. Just suggesting that there may be another reason than the usual GOP profligacy/recklessness/hypocrisy.
Likely rose due to recession.
George HW Bush arguably was. And he paid the price w/in his own party.
quaint to think he’d certify that result
Trump would’ve made him Fed chair.
I think you meant “for the next 3 1/2 years.”
Far as I know, Mamdani hasn't told private companies (e.g., Walmart, oil producers) how to set prices, or demanded a "golden-share" say in corporate decision making, or shaken businesspeople down for tax (tariff) favors.
That potential GDP is the same as when we had better institutions doesn't seem plausible.
Dynamic idiocy.
Try instead exploring sunspots with your partner in pursuit of multiple equilibria.
May the force be with you, Governor.
@phillewis.bsky.social
Also that egg prices can't fall "400 percent" if assumed to be positive.
The monetary base has actually fallen since 2024 (green line, right y-axis), but the multiplier (M2 / base) has gone up (blue line, left y-axis). So not sure I'd call this "printing money."
I think we just iterate fwd here and assume no tariffs.
Even assuming all those interventions over the years were welfare improving, that future generations will be worse off due to the growth- and freedom-crushing policies of an (inevitable?) authoritarian regime may mean that the big gov. experiment failed. Or, more succinctly, Hayek was right.
They're following the Great Depression recipe in reverse order: tariffs, market crash, the gold standard.
$20 says he and his thesaurus don't know that the acts he refers to are state, not federal, crimes in most cases.
This president is going to turn everybody into John Cochrane.
In her defense she was using the DOGE cost-savings spreadsheet as a template.
Yes, stocks famously look backward, pricing in the past.
Fine. Obama-Clinton 2028.
Another week, another Article of Impeachment.
Let him. Then, Dems should nominate B. Obama or B. Clinton or both.
If big institutions -- colleges, corporations, state gov'ts, us -- banded together to fight back, it'd be easy to repel. But it picks us off, one at a time, and we fail to coordinate.
Hate to sound like a nut, but this makes a case for a nightwatchman Fed gov. All the GDP smoothing, market-failure correcting, social-welfare improving benefits of the last 80 yrs may be wiped out by a maniac who hijacked the machine built by the well intentioned.
A preview of how monetary policy will be conducted after this gang hijacks the Fed and the last pillar of post War prosperity topples.
Long live Steve Liesman.
Wait till they get their hands on the Fed. Tom Sargent's going to have to write a sequel.
God bless Steve Liesman.
Give it 20 minutes.
Outside of recessions, months with smaller headline shocks (headline cpi - median cpi) seem to be times when trend inflation wasn't falling.
96 years ago that would have been a valid point. But we've since learned a thing or two about the the effects of large market drops on confidence even among non investors and of course on investment that make such comments inexcusably ignorant.
Now I know what it felt like to have to choose who to root for between Germany and Russia in 1941.
Make that bet on Dow 50k today's $ . This gang will hijack the Fed soon.
All for higher wages and better benefits and retirement security for US workers, but let's not forget the abysmal quality of American cars when GM, Ford and Chrysler enjoyed protection.
You'd think the political opposition could do something with the fact that twice the current POTUS has inherited trend or better growth from a Democrat, and squandered it. Or that, longer term, every recession since 1980 has started under a Republican.
The Dark Ages
Next pretext: he's going to say that Tren de Aragua is hiding under the ice.
Academics tend to belong to the Democratic party for the same now self-evident reason Ukraine wanted to join NATO.
John Adams, lawyer. John Dickenson, lawyer. Thomas Jefferson, lawyer. Patrick Henry, lawyer. John Jay, lawyer. Roger Sherman, lawyer. Etc., etc.
He's never heard of hysteresis apparently.
Coordination failure
Also reminiscent of Stalin and other madmen, they're calling the economic fallout from their nutty policies "necessary suffering."
Every madman in history has called the damage wrought by their idiotic policies a "necessary sacrifice."
Hooverites would like to rename the Great Depression "the Great Transition"
That we're watching the post-War order and our institutions dissolve before our eyes because of the results of the last election suggests that Biden didn't succeed in any meaningful sense of the word. All this back and forth feels "academic."
I'm sure they would therefore agree that equity strength in the same period of Trump I was inherited from Obama (Chart shows change in SP5, 1/21/17 value = 100), and that core inflation's surge during Biden's first few months (+0.6% m/m in March, twice January's rate) was inherited from Trump I.
If that's the standard, then Biden's inflation was clearly Trump I's inflation, since price rises began to accelerate right after Biden's term started. (Chart shows month-over-month change in core PCE inflation from 2/2020 to pres.)
Strange but not surprising that he would lament the very circumstances leading to his election. If those problems hadn't existed, he wouldn't have been elected. Its like taking a job then complaining about the workload: Yes, moron, that's why we hired you.
Yup, I'm an idiot.
