markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Surprised Graff didn't mention this quickly forgotten story form 2018. www.cnn.com/2018/01/17/h...
The job description says data scientist, but still just a simple country statistician at heart. Blogging at observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com Andrew Gelman: "There's something wrong with the world that [Palko's] blog doesn't have a million readers."
73 followers 17 following 1,399 posts
view profile on Bluesky markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Surprised Graff didn't mention this quickly forgotten story form 2018. www.cnn.com/2018/01/17/h...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com/2025/08/whet...
Where is the mainsteam media? Anyone out there? Can you hear me???
What a gang of mindless amateurs in Washington accomplished in Beijing:
This is nothing else but a hybrid war that Russia wages against Europe Let's name things as they really are:Russia has made an assassination attempt of the President of the European Commission Russia has been jamming GPS-signals over many Eastern Europe countries that are in its immediate vicinity
He's making it like a standing in the school house door thing Fleischmann says ‘never’ to town hall edition.timesfreepress.com/article/2817...
You guys see where this is going? Right?
Despite that appellate court’s rejection, Trump’s tariffs will likely be with us for many more months— likely til next spring, at least. Excellent analysis via @jessbravin.bsky.social www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
“.. Memphis, after all, has long been one of the most dangerous cities in the country, with a murder rate about twice as high as the nation’s capital ..” @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/u...
Weird, putting tariffs on construction materials and throwing day laborers in concentration camps should have solved the supply problem by now
Ban the pill and ladies will revert to their true maga selves
Remember when people used the term "false equivalency"?
/3 SALLY: Every day pundits are abused. Taunted. Disrespected. Their contributions are unliked. Their Substacks are unread. They are told that nobody cares. That nobody is on their side. Do you care? Will you be on their side? [VOICE IN BACKGROUND]: Chris Rufo. Elon Musk.
[CUE MUSIC: “IN THE ARMS OF AN ANGEL” PLAYING SOFTLY] [FADE IN BACKGROUND SOUND: A solemn voice reads names] Nate Silver. Matthew Yglesias. Megan McArdle. Mark Cuban. [FADE IN: SALLY STRUTHERS sits on a stool in a pool of light on a minimalist set. She looks SAD.] /1
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Now with "abundance."
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
youtu.be/xMYm2d9bmEA?...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
youtu.be/M4MruTOrLyM?...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
Almost 3% of Americans live in L.A. County and can tell you that this isn't just a lie, it's a lie completely unmoored from reality. You might as well claim that the National Guard turned back a horde of dragons.
This. And a big part of the FCC doctrine was created to prevent another demagogue like Father Coughlin. Who was he? The Rush Limbaugh of his day, spreading non-stop propaganda rooted in hatred and intolerance during the 1930s. www.pbs.org/wnet/explori...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Maybe it was a Tesla experiencing random braking.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
arktimes.com/arkansas-blo...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
Engineering prof uses a computer to play Bach's Prelude no 1. YouTube goes after him for copyright infringement. youtu.be/P4mVUOJiOB4?...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
Not sure how I missed this but it's a hell of a story. www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-...
💯%. I've come to accept how morally depraved Donald Trump is. But I'll never get over how blindingly imbecilic he is. www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
The thing that strikes me is that the slop in my YouTube feed is how many videos have <200 views. No one watches them but the algorithm loves them (particularly the faux Cumberbatches).
These Effing People
"Cantor Fitzgerald, a financial services company led by the sons of US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, is creating a way for investors to bet that President Donald Trump’s signature tariffs will be struck down in court."
Once more for those in back: They were never going to be able to implement a mass deportation program without prioritizing people like this. Criminals and gang members are too hard to find and apprehend. Regular folks who show up to work, church, and their scheduled immigration appointments are not.
Remember the Goolsbee Rule, also called the “pathological irony of crisis”: If you lose credibility, your statements begin to mean the opposite of what you say.
No big whoop, just Donald Trump pissing away three decades of U.S. diplomacy due to a fit of personal pique. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/donald-tru...
Pritzker on Trump sending troops into cities: "He has other aims other than fighting crime... he would like to stop the elections in 2026 or frankly take control of those elections. He'll just claim there's some problem with an election and then he's got troops on the ground that can take control."
We won’t notice it at first Maybe an outbreak of cholera in southwest Kansas goes undetected Perhaps the number of flu related deaths ticks up just a bit each year But-ultimately, inexorably-the destruction of the CDC will lead to countless deaths All because of two men Trump and RFK, Jr
#AddictedToCrises 🤡 @politico.com www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Whether it’s Republican Donald Trump defunding NIH or Democrat Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. gutting the CDC, both parties are to blame for the demise of America’s scientific institutions.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
LA is the most dog-loving place I've ever lived. People take them everywhere. No wonder Noem hates us.
The lies' laughable implausibility is a feature, not a bug. They're not trying to convince discerning, skeptical, fact-based people. They're trying to give supporters a fantasy that validates their feelings and creates a sort of loyalty test, while flaunting the absurdity in everyone else's faces.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Of course, Nixon didn't institute massive tariffs or create an agricultural labor crisis at the same time.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
(I have a feeling that a few readers might miss the subtle mathematical distinction in the previous post)
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
"Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon, for six months, raises the price level more than 8%." The good news that Trump's interference won't be "half as much" as Nixon's, so we should be fine.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
This sounds rather... concerning. www.nber.org/papers/w32461
Increasing political pressure on the Fed by half as much as Nixon did, for six months, raises the price level more than 8%. www.nber.org/papers/w32461
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
Going back to our earlier point. observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com/2025/07/musk...
🇮🇳
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Of course, the original storm included releasing the Epstein files.
What is coming, in QAnon lore, is the Storm. The orgy of bloodletting in which Trump will liquidate his political enemies. That’s what he’s playing with.
This “explicit” is a weird editorial choice. The constitution gives the president no power over this at all. It’s not ambiguous.
A Maine ballot measure restricting mail voting could have an outsize effect on older folks. “We’re not even a voting rights advocacy organization, but we’ve had to become one,” says the director of the Maine Council on Aging.
I’ve polled 40 students at my liberal arts college in the Pacific Northwest. 60% report that they avoid AI chat bots like the plague. 75% report having a generally or strongly negative opinion about how AI will impact the future.
My reporting uncovered the existence of DoJ training videos instructing FBI personnel on how to flag Trump’s name in the Epstein files. I’m suing to get the videos under FOIA. substack.com/@muellershew...
Donald Trump’s rumored death raises new questions about Joe Biden’s health
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Nor is this all that ringing an endorsement of the VP: Trump said in May that it was “far too early to say” who might succeed him. However, he noted that Vance was “doing a fantastic job” and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was “great.”
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
There's a very good chance that Wilson is trying to provoke a response from Trump and his supporters but the basic points stand.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
From earlier today: bsky.app/profile/mark...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
He replied:"And, while I don't know about pre-Civil War history, there has been nothing like this in my memory or knowledge."
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Here's a question I ran past a student of presidential history shortly after the Trump/Musk feud erupted:
🐔 Rep Chuck Fleischmann (R) tells the Chattanooga Times Free Press he will “never” do a town hall www.timesfreepress.com/news/2025/au...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
This is probably a non-story, old news about the president's health blown up by internet buzz and wishful thinking, but it's also a reminder of how strange and unstable the dynamic of this White House is.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
This week at the blog: observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com/2025/08/shad...
@nytpitchbot.bsky.social has the hardest job in show business
If Trump keeps avoiding the public like this somebody's gonna have to write a book about Biden's health.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
Often they're not even parents, but hard yes.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
How 69 and 420 jokes? Those are always funny, right?
“A 14% price increase” When Trump & @MarshaBlackburn tell you there has been no inflation, they’re lying
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Quote from Deathtrap (somewhat ironic considering how the film turned out): Myra Bruhl: Is it really that good? Sidney Bruhl: I'll tell you how good it is. Even a gifted director couldn't hurt it.
“If God knows what’s good for him he’ll let me into heaven. Otherwise bad things might happen.”
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
If you could tap into the private chats of Thiel, Musk, Andressen, et al., I suspect most of the conversations are about the 25th amendment and what they'll do after Vance takes the oath.
The New York Times ran a whole piece speculating that Joe Biden had Parkinson’s and suggesting his neurologists were lying to the public. archive.ph/0u9ht
Of COURSE it all comes down to Modi’s refusal to nominate him for a Nobel prize. 🤡
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
This is grossly unfair. That worm had no idea what it was getting into.
“.. a government where officials maintaining nuclear weapons, monitoring medical trials, or guarding state secrets, have shorter résumés and smaller staffs — likely for years to come.” @axios.com www.axios.com/newsletters/...
One retailer “blasted out an email last week — subject line: ‘Beat the Tariff Price Hike’ — one of several brands urging customers to buy now.” 🤡 @axios.com www.axios.com/2025/08/30/l...
The Deere layoffs this week. The Caterpillar warning about tariffs. Just the beginning. @bloomberg.com $CAT $DE @scottlincicome.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“Ghassemi and her MIT colleagues found that AI systems were more likely to leave female patients untreated.”
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
"Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to disable the microphone of the National Intelligence Director..."
Republicans are racing to describe President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill as spurring the economy and benefiting “working-class” Americans. But voters in Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson's deeply red district expressed significant skepticism about it.
The media has to stop anthropomorphizing AI. If I write a calculator program that generates incorrect results, it's not dishonest, it's just wrong.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
Including the very word "hallucinate."
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
Remarkable how it's the former Republicans who are often the most ready to take extreme measures against Trump.
“After Biden’s 2024 loss, some journalists said the election was a wake-up call—that newsrooms needed to do more to expose the truth no matter how uncomfortable... Just months later, when it comes to the same issue of presidential health, they are already falling short of that promise.”
voting by mail IS a senior citizens’ rights issue
They were mid-tier players known for being contrarians. They were given power because of loyalty, not competency. So now, they lie: CDC didn’t insist schools close — decisions were local. The CDC didn’t “push cloth masks for three years” — but their idiot base has retconned that into reality.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
The saddest part is I've come to expect the stock to surge on news like this.
And now government doctors got my entire channel removed. Don’t worry. I won’t base my entire identity around this or claim it is worse than covid. 😂
You spelled ENDANGERING wrong, @nytimes.com. “Pushing the boundaries” is a *positive* frame implying unconventional innovations. There are no innovations here. Just medieval anti-science populist attacks on some of best methods of truth seeking we have.
A big difference between Republicans and Democrats is that Republicans understand the science of political communication. Republicans dictate the topics/terms of debate while Dems (and the left) usually burn energy in constant response. Thiel and Co call this mimetics, Lakoff calls it framing.
Trip down memory lane. www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/u...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/08/29/t...
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reply parent
I've heard there's even a Musk/Thiel hand puppet hanging around the VP's office.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social)
What makes this failure all th more notable is that Zuckerberg's last big, bold, visionary initiative was the metaverse, and that worked out great.
My son, a college physics major, DESPISES generative AI with a passion.
This week's comic, inspired by a study showing that AI summaries on top of search results are dramatically cutting traffic to websites.
It is genuinely wild popping onto X (tracking some pro-nuclear stuff) and seeing people with like 600,000 followers posting something getting 10 likes Like, that shouldn't even be possible. Even the spam bots are like 'nah, not worth it'
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reposted
So did the tech bros (Musk, Ellison). Silicon Valley had a long history of doubting experts and was where the initial push for ivermectin and hydroxychloriquine came from.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reposted
As much as I'd hate to ruin the poster's day but I've found a number of mistake in the New Yorker over the years, some of them quite embarrassing.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reposted
Reminder, the Silicon Valley alt right (particularly Ellison and Musk) started the push for ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. A Thiel connection was inevitable.
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reposted
"Don't believe what you see at the grocery store. This report says there's no inflation."
markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) reposted
Today at the blog: while trying to get a handle on the state of AI, I defend the honor of Samuel Pierpont Langley from lying Ted-Talkers and find an excuse to embed a classic Newhart routine. observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com/2025/08/are-...
that said, I am pleased that I got so many people to talk to me about the phenomenon of more-expensive-than-ever AI I dunno that this is an existential threat to all AI startups -- or any AI startups but only because there are macro trends that could be bigger threats www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-c...
