And now denied kz.kursiv.media/en/2025-09-0...
Founder - Enmetena Advisory, Fellow @FPRI & @IISS_org. Eurasia, political economy, sanctions, international affairs, debt & sovereignty. Buy my book Economic War: Ukraine & The Global Conflict Between Russia & The West: https://linktr.ee/EconomicWar
4,322 followers 607 following 206 posts
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And now denied kz.kursiv.media/en/2025-09-0...
Kazakhstan's foreign minister Murat Nurtleu detained alongside Dagestani-Kazakh businessman Gadzhi Gadzhiev orda.kz/zaderzhany-m... unclear if related but Gadzheiv was accused of involvement in journalist Aydos Sadykov's assassination in Ukraine last year rsf.org/en/journalis...
Rare to hear an EU official speak as candidly as Weyand here “From the Commission’s perspective this was a strategic trade-off, not an economic policy ideal solution" “There was a risk that the USA, in return, would question the security partnership. That is the realpolitik of the turning point"
⚡️Ukraine hits Russian cruise missile carrier near occupied Crimea, intelligence claims. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) hit a Russian Buyan-M-class small missile ship, a carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles, near Russian-occupied Crimea in the Azov Sea on Aug. 28, HUR reported.
The EU Delegation in Kyiv was damaged by today’s Russian strikes on civilian areas. I strongly condemn these brutal attacks, a clear sign that Russia rejects peace & chooses terror. Our full solidarity goes to EU staff, their families, & all Ukrainians enduring this aggression.
China’s first confirmed purchase of LNG from Russia’s U.S.-sanctioned Arctic 2 LNG site shows Trump’s secondary sanctions threat is weakening in the face of his policy flip-flopping gcaptain.com/russias-arct...
Doggo enjoying the Holland Park Opera’s practice sessions
"In June, 81% of 🇨🇦 exports qualified as USMCA-compliant, up from 56% month before. 🇲🇽 saw a similar move, with 77% of shipments clearing the bar versus just 42% in May. .. helped blunt ... tariffs that technically set rates at 35% for Canada and 25% for Mexco." www.tradingview.com/news/gurufoc...
Almost every year I’ve attended, I’ve noticed at least 2/3rds of all artists exhibiting at the Venice Biennale are based in Berlin
Europe and Ukraine have to change their approach towards Trump or risk ceding more ground to Russia. Read more by @maxhess.bsky.social. buff.ly/0Mchs9j
Thanks for listening!
Idk what’s crazier, the CIA-KGB combined mortgage financing or the $40k upper east side two bedroom apartment
Trump’s envoy - who has infamously & stupidly relied on the Kremlin’s translators for meetings with Putin - reportedly misunderstood Putin who wasn’t offering Russian withdrawals from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia but restating his maximalist demands. www.bild.de/politik/ausl...
If Trump agrees to this stupidity, it will be a devastating mistake. There is a zero percent chance Putin would follow through with the second phase.
A large number of these investigations center on the construction of defensive fortifications in Russian regions bordering Ukraine.
Should be 100% secondary tariff *
Xi set to invite Trump & Putin to meet in Beijing on September 3rd. Incidentally thats deadline day for Trump's 50 day threat for enacting 50% secondary tariff against Russia if no Ukraine deal. My previous max 5% chance Trump would follow through fast approaching 0% www.thetimes.com/world/asia/a...
A new post from me on emerging structures of financing international litigation - and - in my opinion - what works, and what doesn't conflictandcredit.substack.com/p/how-not-to...
The big thing to watch for in Trump’s demand for new waiver authority in the Russia sanctions bill working its way through Congress is if he looks for changes to how CAATSA protected previous sanctions from being withdrawn without Congress’ support www.politico.com/news/2025/07...
Brownback’s “great Kansas tax cut experiment” in 2012 was a complete fiasco, ultimately overridden (over his veto) by the Republican legislature. Yet it did not lead to a widespread condemnation of the impossibility of conservative governance as such./2 en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_...
The 1% decrease in Libya’s threatened tariff rate is the funniest example of how nonsensical Trump’s tariff numbers are. Libya is divided by two rival governments & has no real trade negotiations with the US. 99% of Libyan exports to the US is crude oil, which is tariff exempt.
Only in Tbilisi
Konstantin Strukov was reportedly preparing to fly to Turkey aboard his private $50 million Bombardier jet when federal aviation authorities halted his departure.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence claims control of Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (southwest of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast). The first town in the oblast Russian forces claim to have occupied t.me/kontext_chan...
Chancellor Merz: Russia is already attacking us today. The infrastructure, we have attacks, arson attacks, what has also happened in barracks here in recent days. Almost all trails lead to Russia.
Janan Ganesh continues to be an incredibly insipid stain on the best newspaper out there www.ft.com/content/07c6...
5 years of gardening and dog raising hobbies led to this photo
Why Countries Are Suddenly Broadcasting Their Spies’ Exploits www.wsj.com/world/why-co...
Live from John Bolton’s bedroom:
1/3 FT: "The era of Bund scarcity was “definitely over”, said a senior German official, as the Eurozone’s safest borrower increases sales of its benchmark debt to fund a defence and infrastructure spending spree." www.ft.com/content/9765...
Death toll from yesterday's (massive) Russian attack on Kyiv has risen to 21, per Ukrainian emergency officials, who are continuing to pull bodies from rubble of destroyed apartment block; 134 wounded/injured. t.co/Z50IAEOpOX
No statement and a failure to agree to increase pressure on Russia: At the G7 summit, Trump disappointed allies by saying that US sanctions cost a lot of money raising questioning whether Trump can be trusted to put further pressure on Russia. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Real duality of reality vibes from the FT this weekend
Since 2022 Central and Eastern Europe has undergone a fundamental shift away from reliance on Russian gas. Will it last? Join @maxhess.bsky.social, Sergey Vakulenko and me tomorrow for a Carnegie Europe webinar to discuss these issues. It will be insightful! carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace will host a webinar on my report 'How Eastern Europe Overhauled Its Natural Gas Market' next Thursday June 5th at 17:00 CET (11AM New York Time, 4PM UK Time). Join us by registering at the link below! carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...
Things you see in west london …
Terrible news that @willneal.bsky.social has been barred entry to Georgia, his home, because of his tireless reporting on money and power. The Georgian authorities should reverse themselves immediately. rsf.org/en/between-h...
Please pass along if / when!
The Caucasus: where your major world historical geopolitical conflict plays second fiddle to arguments over who lived on one side of one particular valley in 1897 according to the last Russian imperial census
Is there a recording? Would love to listen!
Just wrote an article about a French naturalist, botanist, orientalist, spy, and anti-slavery advocate who was employed by the Russian Empire to introduce new cultivation techniques to Georgia and Azerbaijan. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph-...
A most scholastic canine
Congressional Bill that would significantly increase sanctions on Ivanishvili-led Georgian Dream government in Georgia passes the House, quite surprised how strong vote was though I expect Senate will sit on it cohen.house.gov/media-center...
After the Kremlin seizes $3billion+ from Euroclear & ClearStream stuck in Russia, the Belgian and Luxembourg-based clearing houses are seizing equivalent Russian funds (but not RU central bank assets reportedly) to pay Western investors with assets trapped in Russia www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Finally in my possession, two nearly 100 year old copies of Georgian children’s magazine ‘Nakaduli’ (The Brook). I look forward to spending the next 100 years translating, particularly the songs! (Thanks to @aaron-schwa.bsky.social for alerting me to their sale!)
Yesterday, I finished Economic War by @maxhess.bsky.social As someone who is less than knowledgeable about economics, I found the book insightful and easy to understand. I also appreciated how he illustrated 🇷🇺 use of economic leverage against 🇺🇦 pre-2014.
Putin wants Ukraine war veterans to be "new Russian elite" and take places in executive and legislature. Yet the "old elites" doesn't want them near good seats. And de-facto manipulates Putin showing him "good numbers on paper" while sidelining veterans ridl.io/municipal-pe...
After Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Eastern Europe successfully ended its dependence on Russian natural gas. To ensure the region's energy security, the EU must continue to diversify its supplies & invest in LNG infrastructure, says @maxhess.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
This would be a very good thing (and doesn’t need congress to pass a vote in my view, or CRS’s)
Congressional Research Service - in a mealmouthy way designed to avoid partisan tensions - says it would be okay for Treasury to issue premium / consol bonds to avoid debt ceiling issue. (CRS notes do not carry any legal authority FWIW) www.congress.gov/crs-product/...
The updated edition of Economic War by @maxhess.bsky.social is out in paperback! ‘Examines how Russia’s response to sanctions following the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014...set the stage for [the current] conflict.’@financialtimes.com, a ‘book to read’ 25% off, code HESS25➡️ tinyurl.com/5n8zp6ju
Things that also happened at the end of the Roman Empire for $100 please
The CHIPS Act is alive... In South Korea. As a share of GDP, their package is 22 times larger than what even Biden pledged. South Korea unveils $23 billion support package for chips amid US tariff uncertainty. www.reuters.com/technology/s...
The first spotting of the new paperback edition of ‘Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict between Russia and the West’ in bookshops! Thanks to Pippa Crawford
@buddyyakov.bsky.social made me think of you
Now is the moment for a multilateral defence bank on.ft.com/44pLMAa
Note that this is their response to the earlier steel and aluminum tariffs, not the latest round.
Imploring*…
The first paperback copies of ‘Economic War’ are here. Simultaneously, my WW2 poster employing one to “Buy (Treasury) Bonds for peace and security” arrived. As the afterword is on how the US’s domestic policy is a bigger threat to the international economic order Russia is, seems pretty apt!
This might be the worst case of Cyrillic abuse I have seen in quite a few years
That’s extremely kind! If you do order, Amazon as give you an option to get new paperback edition shortly!
Setting out my stall in Trump’s anti-American tariff tantrum. www.aljazeera.com/opinions/202...
If implemented it would likely make India and China think twice (or 10 times) about doing business with Russia. Essentially - this is the "sanctions from hell"
she was previously also involved in managing a lot of her husbands other European property and related interests istories.media/en/stories/2...
Russian oligarch Boris Rotenberg's wife Karina seems to have had her whole US SDN sanctions designation lifted. In the early 2000s she was living in Georgia (the state) & married to an American, had some notable US property investments per @occrp.org t.co/b8Dhgtpunf ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
50 US Senators have introduced a bill that includes the most intense Russia sanctions to date: a 500% additional tariff on any countries buying Russian hydrocarbons & uranium, putting SWIFT into law, and perma-freezing Russian sovereign debt & securities. Wow. ciosenus.app.box.com/s/moy15li8j8...
50 US Senators have introduced a bill that includes the most intense Russia sanctions to date: a 500% additional tariff on any countries buying Russian hydrocarbons & uranium, putting SWIFT into law, and perma-freezing Russian sovereign debt & securities. Wow. ciosenus.app.box.com/s/moy15li8j8...
Thanks for all you’ve done and much success headed your way undoubtedly
Excellent long read on Georgian kleptocracy and Britain’s role in enabling it from @willneal.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2025/03/31/m...
It brings me no joy to say this but this is far more a death of the ICC story than it is a risk to Rubio or other officials story. Omar al Bashir got away with flouting the ICC warrant and Sudan had the geopolitical influence of the Alaska Highway Patrol at the time
You can learn a lot more about South Korean businesses experience in Russia before and after the full-scale invasion by reading my December 2023 @fpri.bsky.social report here! www.fpri.org/article/2023...
Korean manufacturer LG Electronics temporarily restarts production of washing machines and refrigerators at Russia plant (reportedly using existing inventory for supplies), while Hyundai is showing up to a trade show for the first time since the war www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/202...
Russia demands end of sanctions on Rosselkhozbank for energy ceasefire to come into effect. It is under financial sanctions under Executive Order 13662 which requires Congress' approval to lift cause of CAATSA (post-2022 sanctions Trump can unilaterally lift). Unclear if Russia's ask includes all..
Hundreds of Chiatura miners brought their protest to the capital and rallied in front of the Government Administration building in Tbilisi on March 24.
Hmm, despite numerous reports stating that a US-Russia joint statement would be released after the latest Riyadh attacks around 10AM Kyiv time (an hour and a half ago) Russian presidential spokesperson Peskov has just said there will be no public statement ria.ru/20250325/pes...
Pour one out for the Reuters intern who has confused a Scandinavian airline with Britain’s elite military unit
Interesting findings from this 👇 new Bank of Finland paper: Western sanctions "have had no serious influence on Russia's ability to produce military goods in quantity" -- though "they may have had an impact on the types and modernity of what has been produced." publications.bof.fi/bitstream/ha...
(In the UK)
Just arrived this morning!
Very excited to dig into @jeremymorris.bsky.social latest!
≈2 billion a year per www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/n.... So $15 billion is enough to cover for next four years and still be left with more money than any university outside the USA
Kind of you to say (and I’d have agreed with you on that six months ago!)
As recently as 6 months ago I would have scoffed at anyone claiming that *anything* could undermine the USD's role as the world's reserve currency. I've worked through a dozen financial crises and every time the dollar strengthened. The situation has changed. (Follow Hess for intn'l financial news)
Colombia has a ≈15bln endowment, if they don’t put as much of it as necessary into fighting this and making up for any shortfall then they are basically admitting they’re an investment fund with an educational arm for branding
Perhaps the most frequent question that I get these days is whether there is a “method to the madness” in Trump’s approach to the world. I think there is. The problem is it’s a high stakes gamble, and I’m not so confident the US has sent its best poker players. www.aljazeera.com/opinions/202...
Quoted excerpt plus comment from @dandrezner.bsky.social's roundup today of books on economic statecraft: “'America’s economic arsenal has demonstrated that it can inflict tremendous damage, but it has not proven that it can reliably advance U.S. strategic goals.' Ain’t that the truth!"
“Let them drink piss”
So very tired, we, the Jews of the world, are
see : www.politico.eu/article/fran... french statement: senat.fr/questions/ba... uk estimate: t.co/aQQnKT0z7R
France to use €195m in interest from Russian frozen assets to fund Ukraine. Should be more available as it reported €22bln in frozen Russian state assets in '22. (biggest pile of Russian frozen assets of any country after Belgium's €210bln - used to finance €50bln for Ukraine & UK estimate ≈£20bln)
RIP Gene, the best to ever do it.
Literally the meme
Today I went back to my old boarding school. Walking into the dinning hall here for the first time & not knowing where to sit would determine my career. I saw a table that I thought must have been Americans. Turned out they were all Georgians, Russians, Kazakhs, & Ukrainians, who quickly accepted me
Doing the unthinkable: The deep cuts to the #CDC's workforce today are expected to decimate the Epidemic Intelligence Service, a program that has trained public health rapid responders for decades. Envy of the world. Poof! www.statnews.com/2025/02/14/t...
The IRS was a simple test for DOGE: was it really interested in efficiency and state capacity? If so, you support the tax enforcement, the biggest ROI in govt. Or did it want to minimize parts of the state that bothered billionaires? We have our answer. open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
Keep calm and carry on
Happy Valentine’s Day, love shines even in the darkest times and places. “I would hug you, but I am only text” - Timofey Radya (2013, Ekaterinburg)
Eine Lehre für deutschen Wählern. Hätten amerikanischen Konservativen ihren Prinzipien treu geblieben und sich gegen Trump zusammengeschlossen, hätten sie ihre Partei nicht an ihm und seine Mitläufer nicht verloren. Ende des Brandmauers würde zur Ende des CDU/CSU führen.
