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Nilo

@nilo.bsky.social

Mentally I’m on the beach

created May 3, 2023

1,939 followers 135 following 16,255 posts

view profile on Bluesky

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Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

“Rivers of Blood;” lexicon of Herodotus; dream was to be viceroy of India

3/9/2025, 2:49:54 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The only time Enoch Powell should matter to a person is if they are reading Herodotus. Very disturbing to see these weirdos resurrecting Nate Hochman.

3/9/2025, 2:41:29 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

You’re dealing with over an order of magnitude more people on one end than the other

3/9/2025, 1:50:39 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The southern side has San Diego which has 3.2 million people, as well as the OC. Santa Barbara has fewer than half a million people. Demand for train ridership is not black magic.

3/9/2025, 1:19:23 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

This is absurd

3/9/2025, 12:07:59 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Also have seen how some of these long term estimates are “stacked” the amount of various contingencies can be absolutely insane.

3/9/2025, 12:04:43 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Coast guard is a real menace. Is anything shipping through it commercial?

2/9/2025, 11:58:12 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The street running segment should just be removed from the vehicular grid. Maybe leave a walking/bike path would allow you to boost speeds.

2/9/2025, 11:56:17 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Been awhile since I looked but how deep is it? Would a bridge really be worse?

2/9/2025, 11:50:26 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

This would be so cheap to avoid too…

2/9/2025, 11:48:24 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

If it’s finished!

2/9/2025, 11:48:02 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Where’s the east link section?

2/9/2025, 11:43:18 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Thinking about this. Is this YoE and thus the cost is tremendously sensitive to the inflation choice.

2/9/2025, 11:41:47 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Almost entirely irrelevant to the question of “where is the ridership” and “where is the public ownership” which here thankfully overlap quite nicely.

2/9/2025, 11:16:36 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The crazy thing to me at least is if you look at the map the hard things look almost all done!

2/9/2025, 11:10:53 PM | 14 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Marco Chitti (@chittimarco.bsky.social) reposted

One Hundred Eighty Five Billion 185,000,000,000 Let this number sink in.

2/9/2025, 9:52:44 PM | 86 11 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

In fact the only flight I can find that’s sort of natural for this is SCL-PEK if you can go over Russia.

2/9/2025, 11:08:51 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Why? It’s not particularly good for connecting to the southern cone and has ~no OD demand.

2/9/2025, 11:01:49 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Ok sorry “LOSSAN South” aka where all the ridership demand is. We don’t have to pretend the same solution is needed for the lower ridership northern tail.

2/9/2025, 10:58:14 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Funnily enough the article includes PEK-MAD-GRU which is the market I mentioned.

2/9/2025, 10:25:14 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)

This is how I learned Plainfield, IL is on Lake Michigan water.

2/9/2025, 9:30:17 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

It’s actually crazy how far out you can be and still be buying Chicago water.

2/9/2025, 9:28:34 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

It’s the opposite lol. Houston gets all sales and property tax revenue from commercial real estate and forces tons of low density suburbs to pay for everything themselves.

2/9/2025, 9:26:07 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Idk man!

2/9/2025, 7:44:51 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

You won’t take my hot shower in 35 C weather away from me!

2/9/2025, 7:17:46 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Pregnancy is an important cost but actually raising children is a far bigger cost!

2/9/2025, 7:17:03 PM | 8 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The difference in cost burden between dc and the suburbs is crazy because MoCo-Arlington-Alexandria are all kindergarten starts.

2/9/2025, 7:15:48 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Part of the reason the baby boom is very interesting is because in fact births per women was declining in Europe and the USA well before the modern women’s rights movement and the baby boom represents a brief deviation from that norm.

2/9/2025, 7:10:50 PM | 16 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)

God bless the people’s republic of DC starting with pre-k3

2/9/2025, 7:08:13 PM | 7 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

You all did at one point!

2/9/2025, 6:49:32 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I mean some services seem to keep getting better with size. Certainly the train network of Tokyo is considered better than Osaka’s which is better than Nagoya’s which is better than Sapporo’s a lot of that is probably due to returns to scale.

2/9/2025, 5:54:54 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I mean they keep moving to the most crowded place in Japan (greater Tokyo) so it certainly seems that crowding and congestion are positively associated with desirability in Japan. Meanwhile the least crowded areas continue to lose people n

2/9/2025, 5:53:25 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I didn’t say growth was always good or necessary. I said it was the revealed preference of the public, which I think is much more interesting than my opinion.

2/9/2025, 5:44:43 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Japan has very low productivity per hour worked (some of the lowest in the developed world) reforming their office culture to prioritize fewer hours probably would have very little negative effect on business.

2/9/2025, 5:42:32 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

In fact there’s very little evidence public services get worse with more people but decent evidence they get worse with fewer as areas become unable to reap the rewards of specialization and scale that come with more people.

2/9/2025, 5:41:23 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Japanese home prices are already very low. And “public services are less taxed” and “subways less crowded” are sorta contradictory as you need a much higher tax burden per person if fewer people are on the trains if you want the same level of service quality.

2/9/2025, 5:40:40 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Sorry I hate it. The head should obviously be lower not upper Manhattan.

2/9/2025, 5:38:54 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Congestion in Japan on trains is much better than it was in 1970. But you’re making a philosophical argument that I think most people just don’t agree with given what politicians end up prioritizing.

2/9/2025, 5:37:41 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I mean I really think it’s difficult to dispute that people on average don’t want the newest iPhone or the ability to take a vacation to Europe or whatever. Japan has pretty good public services but I’m sure many Japanese would like more money to buy fun stuff

2/9/2025, 5:35:13 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I mean people like being richer? Don’t most people you know want a larger salary? Japan has put all this effort in in an attempt to be a much richer country. It isn’t working but clearly that’s where they want to be.

2/9/2025, 5:09:22 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Sure but you can easily fit more people within the current developed footprint pretty trivially.

2/9/2025, 5:05:20 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Yes I admit it’s a very funny complaint to me as a North American.

2/9/2025, 4:39:51 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The average Japanese person lives in a two story structure and the country has depopulation issues everywhere that isn’t within 1 km of a train station in greater Tokyo.

2/9/2025, 4:39:02 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I mean the point being the per capita income is much lower compared to its peers than it was in the 90s. Maybe you think we don’t need economic growth anymore. That’s fine! But it’s not a popular opinion worldwide! People really like new iPhones, vacations etc.

2/9/2025, 4:26:00 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

But in theory a more viable path for like Finland than the USA.

2/9/2025, 4:23:56 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Japan is much poorer now relative to its European and American peers because of the shrinking labor force than it was 30 years ago. And they’ve spent billions on robots with only modest results. Making productivity grow faster is very hard!

2/9/2025, 4:21:01 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I think it’s much more about social reaction to the pandemic, which has very difficult to quantify ramifications for the global social fabric.

2/9/2025, 4:16:13 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Well they have a big issue in 1. A decline in workforce aged people has led to stagnant/slow growth 2. A growing dependency ratio means extant workers pay larger and larger shares of their income to pay for benefits for the elderly.

2/9/2025, 4:15:31 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Japan is less sexist than South Korea and China so it basically has its population hold up better.

2/9/2025, 4:13:52 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Basically a global phenomenon as this point as China and South Asia are below replacement fertility. The countries above are almost all sub Saharan Africa at this point.

2/9/2025, 4:12:54 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I think there are probably different choices that could be made (the amount of stopping patterns doesn’t help), but yes the UK’s track utilization has always tracked closer to CH, NL, BE than bigger countries like FR, DE, IT, but investment in basic modernization like electrification has lagged.

2/9/2025, 4:08:12 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)

The sexism problem is even bigger. If a decent chunk of women each generation simply don’t have kids because they can’t find someone worthwhile to have children with fertility is not going to be very high.

2/9/2025, 4:05:37 PM | 14 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Pro-brexit. Autocorrect

2/9/2025, 4:04:15 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Hardly a UK only issue. Women everywhere report difficultly finding a worthwhile spouse and it has been creeping up the income/social status ladder.

2/9/2025, 4:03:12 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Many people world wide are engaged in zero sum status games raising kids. My favorite stat is American dads now spend more time with their kids than moms did in the 60s. Moms response: spend even time with their kids. In the USA it’s the extracurricular chauffeuring; Japan elaborate boxed lunches

2/9/2025, 4:02:08 PM | 20 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Japan has the highest birth rate in east asia at this point.

2/9/2025, 3:57:47 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The actual global issue is the math doesn’t work for us, India, and China all doing that.

2/9/2025, 3:57:09 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The suitable man gap is definitely an issue.

2/9/2025, 3:56:06 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Not just there problem! It’s probably why fertility is so low all over Asia and Latin America.

2/9/2025, 3:53:04 PM | 7 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The craziest is how Japan managed to do this despite having made children’s travel just about as easy as possible n

2/9/2025, 3:51:58 PM | 10 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)

The British rail network is such a tremendous contrast to the American one. Almost makes you wonder why they bother to build roads n

2/9/2025, 3:47:40 PM | 9 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The complexity difference between these two sets of projects is enormous.

2/9/2025, 3:46:12 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The time to debate the meme was 2021

2/9/2025, 1:52:38 PM | 5 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)

Cities are not for fun.

2/9/2025, 1:33:20 PM | 12 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Jacob Smith (@stephenjacobsmith.com) reposted

The fire engineers I’ve spoken to about the UK’s post-Grenfell building safety regulation situation are all appalled. Even leaving aside the staffing issues raised here, there are few prescriptive rules for designers to follow for tall buildings, and what rules there are are often unreasonable.

2/9/2025, 1:10:40 PM | 25 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

And of course of those ten largest 8 are semiconductors or software, one is Saudi Aramco, and the tenth is BH. Obviously the other exciting technological innovation of the last 5 years (GLP-1) is originally danish (and only 200B.)

2/9/2025, 1:16:02 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

How much of the size differential between the USA and Europe is due to the exogenous fact that UC Berkeley and Stanford were both really good at physics, electrical engineering and computer science? Even the tenth largest firm (Berkshire Hathaway) is >4 times smaller than the largest.

2/9/2025, 1:13:13 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

The way you know she’s lying is you can’t study medicine as an undergrad.

2/9/2025, 12:22:17 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Adrián (@elenoam.bsky.social) reposted

Working in the Monterrey Metro for two years has been interesting and sad. Mexico's richest city has some of the world's worst planning. Basically, the city sprawled in high-density isolated satellite cities in financially overwhelmed municipalities with huge housing abandonment.

image image image image
2/9/2025, 3:43:37 AM | 25 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Absolutely.

2/9/2025, 2:29:50 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Feels like this should help our like England where HS2 hits a huge number of destinations.

2/9/2025, 2:28:01 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Reg monkey (@regmonkey.bsky.social) reposted

He’s dead. They’re announcing he died

2/9/2025, 2:14:25 AM | 55 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Slow progress, but progress.

2/9/2025, 2:13:59 AM | 11 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I think I spent about 30 minutes inside the Consular section and the visa was issued in two business days.

1/9/2025, 10:12:00 PM | 5 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)

It’s actually very easy to get a visa to go to china. It can be done in under a week.

1/9/2025, 10:10:18 PM | 10 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Doesn’t Delaware pay for this service too!?

1/9/2025, 6:02:10 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Yeah I assume this is from some NEC future doc?

1/9/2025, 5:29:44 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

This seems to be good advice for almost any research project for kids.

1/9/2025, 3:55:22 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Yeah this violates my rule about visiting. Now train station; no visit.

1/9/2025, 3:52:11 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Pseudoerasmus (@pseudoerasmus.bsky.social) reposted

Last year nobody noticed Pickle's lunatic claim that extreme poverty in China rose from 5.6% in 1981 to 68% in 1995! You would think under-5 child mortality would skyrocket under such circumstances. No sign of it (but there was a slowdown in the rate of reduction in the 1980s relative to 1970s).

image
1/9/2025, 3:48:48 PM | 5 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I’ve never met a politician who didn’t want to prioritize rail to nowhere over good service somewhere. People forget that JNR debt was also driven in part by stupid rural construction projects.

1/9/2025, 3:42:11 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I assume it’s not very railroad accessible?

1/9/2025, 3:40:03 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Jerusalem Demsas (@jerusalem.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

Read more & subscribe! www.theargumentmag.com/p/yimbys-bea...

1/9/2025, 1:14:46 PM | 34 6 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

At worst the link should have been second!

1/9/2025, 3:27:56 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Jacob Smith (@stephenjacobsmith.com) reposted reply parent

You gotta adapt to the local culture and put the link in the first post. You’ll get more traffic!

1/9/2025, 1:14:44 PM | 23 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Nice to see it just passed 50% approval to rejoin. Hopefully to can stay there.

1/9/2025, 3:21:40 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I mean that was my point about seats v. Overall margin?

1/9/2025, 3:21:17 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Where is this?

1/9/2025, 3:18:03 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

I think brexit won is something like 2/3s of seats? Given that it was the issue and the lib dems firmly planted themselves as its opponents I think there are real limits to having a winning coalition that’s solely “Brexit was wrong” at the moment.

1/9/2025, 3:15:58 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Problem with FPTP the pro-btw it coalition is absurdly efficient

1/9/2025, 3:07:50 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

They should have just lied.

1/9/2025, 2:48:12 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Cruel Angel's 95 Theses (@grayathena.bsky.social) reposted

No more Braedynns. If you're Jewish, you get named for a dead relative, if you're Catholic you get named based on the nearest saints day and if you're Protestant you open a Bible to a random page and choose the first name on that page. Return to tradition

31/8/2025, 11:57:04 PM | 628 59 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Yeah a state that can build you get things like high speed rail to Urumqi or Santiago de la Compostela. A Brazil that’s good at building trains has a network much larger than the example in the applet.

1/9/2025, 4:56:39 AM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Yup looks right.

1/9/2025, 2:06:39 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Christof Spieler (@christofspieler.bsky.social) reposted

Harvard, IL.

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1/9/2025, 1:37:24 AM | 24 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Scarsdale-mainline is actually a place where Amtrak probably Captures a non zero segment of the market.

1/9/2025, 1:46:31 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Americans and already abandoned trains for driving. The one route I’m aware of the private company wishing to keep was LA-SD. Everything else was bleeding dollars.

1/9/2025, 1:44:31 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Feels like a weird comp. Most intercity travel in the USA is by car, and that has mostly inferior performance characteristics to a train.

1/9/2025, 1:41:30 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Im not citing an out of state number though I can’t remember where I read it.

1/9/2025, 1:38:51 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent

Americans are too rich for long distances buses for sure, they’d just fly. But east of the Mississippi rail demand is undertapped for sure.

1/9/2025, 1:38:20 AM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view