Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
“Rivers of Blood;” lexicon of Herodotus; dream was to be viceroy of India
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
“Rivers of Blood;” lexicon of Herodotus; dream was to be viceroy of India
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The only time Enoch Powell should matter to a person is if they are reading Herodotus. Very disturbing to see these weirdos resurrecting Nate Hochman.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
You’re dealing with over an order of magnitude more people on one end than the other
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The southern side has San Diego which has 3.2 million people, as well as the OC. Santa Barbara has fewer than half a million people. Demand for train ridership is not black magic.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
This is absurd
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Also have seen how some of these long term estimates are “stacked” the amount of various contingencies can be absolutely insane.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Coast guard is a real menace. Is anything shipping through it commercial?
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The street running segment should just be removed from the vehicular grid. Maybe leave a walking/bike path would allow you to boost speeds.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Been awhile since I looked but how deep is it? Would a bridge really be worse?
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
This would be so cheap to avoid too…
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
If it’s finished!
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Where’s the east link section?
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Thinking about this. Is this YoE and thus the cost is tremendously sensitive to the inflation choice.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Almost entirely irrelevant to the question of “where is the ridership” and “where is the public ownership” which here thankfully overlap quite nicely.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The crazy thing to me at least is if you look at the map the hard things look almost all done!
Marco Chitti (@chittimarco.bsky.social) reposted
One Hundred Eighty Five Billion 185,000,000,000 Let this number sink in.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
In fact the only flight I can find that’s sort of natural for this is SCL-PEK if you can go over Russia.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Why? It’s not particularly good for connecting to the southern cone and has ~no OD demand.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Ok sorry “LOSSAN South” aka where all the ridership demand is. We don’t have to pretend the same solution is needed for the lower ridership northern tail.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Funnily enough the article includes PEK-MAD-GRU which is the market I mentioned.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)
This is how I learned Plainfield, IL is on Lake Michigan water.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
It’s actually crazy how far out you can be and still be buying Chicago water.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
It’s the opposite lol. Houston gets all sales and property tax revenue from commercial real estate and forces tons of low density suburbs to pay for everything themselves.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Idk man!
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
You won’t take my hot shower in 35 C weather away from me!
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Pregnancy is an important cost but actually raising children is a far bigger cost!
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The difference in cost burden between dc and the suburbs is crazy because MoCo-Arlington-Alexandria are all kindergarten starts.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Part of the reason the baby boom is very interesting is because in fact births per women was declining in Europe and the USA well before the modern women’s rights movement and the baby boom represents a brief deviation from that norm.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)
God bless the people’s republic of DC starting with pre-k3
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
You all did at one point!
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I mean some services seem to keep getting better with size. Certainly the train network of Tokyo is considered better than Osaka’s which is better than Nagoya’s which is better than Sapporo’s a lot of that is probably due to returns to scale.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I mean they keep moving to the most crowded place in Japan (greater Tokyo) so it certainly seems that crowding and congestion are positively associated with desirability in Japan. Meanwhile the least crowded areas continue to lose people n
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I didn’t say growth was always good or necessary. I said it was the revealed preference of the public, which I think is much more interesting than my opinion.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Japan has very low productivity per hour worked (some of the lowest in the developed world) reforming their office culture to prioritize fewer hours probably would have very little negative effect on business.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
In fact there’s very little evidence public services get worse with more people but decent evidence they get worse with fewer as areas become unable to reap the rewards of specialization and scale that come with more people.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Japanese home prices are already very low. And “public services are less taxed” and “subways less crowded” are sorta contradictory as you need a much higher tax burden per person if fewer people are on the trains if you want the same level of service quality.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Sorry I hate it. The head should obviously be lower not upper Manhattan.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Congestion in Japan on trains is much better than it was in 1970. But you’re making a philosophical argument that I think most people just don’t agree with given what politicians end up prioritizing.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I mean I really think it’s difficult to dispute that people on average don’t want the newest iPhone or the ability to take a vacation to Europe or whatever. Japan has pretty good public services but I’m sure many Japanese would like more money to buy fun stuff
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I mean people like being richer? Don’t most people you know want a larger salary? Japan has put all this effort in in an attempt to be a much richer country. It isn’t working but clearly that’s where they want to be.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Sure but you can easily fit more people within the current developed footprint pretty trivially.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Yes I admit it’s a very funny complaint to me as a North American.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The average Japanese person lives in a two story structure and the country has depopulation issues everywhere that isn’t within 1 km of a train station in greater Tokyo.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I mean the point being the per capita income is much lower compared to its peers than it was in the 90s. Maybe you think we don’t need economic growth anymore. That’s fine! But it’s not a popular opinion worldwide! People really like new iPhones, vacations etc.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
But in theory a more viable path for like Finland than the USA.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Japan is much poorer now relative to its European and American peers because of the shrinking labor force than it was 30 years ago. And they’ve spent billions on robots with only modest results. Making productivity grow faster is very hard!
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I think it’s much more about social reaction to the pandemic, which has very difficult to quantify ramifications for the global social fabric.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Well they have a big issue in 1. A decline in workforce aged people has led to stagnant/slow growth 2. A growing dependency ratio means extant workers pay larger and larger shares of their income to pay for benefits for the elderly.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Japan is less sexist than South Korea and China so it basically has its population hold up better.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Basically a global phenomenon as this point as China and South Asia are below replacement fertility. The countries above are almost all sub Saharan Africa at this point.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I think there are probably different choices that could be made (the amount of stopping patterns doesn’t help), but yes the UK’s track utilization has always tracked closer to CH, NL, BE than bigger countries like FR, DE, IT, but investment in basic modernization like electrification has lagged.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)
The sexism problem is even bigger. If a decent chunk of women each generation simply don’t have kids because they can’t find someone worthwhile to have children with fertility is not going to be very high.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Pro-brexit. Autocorrect
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Hardly a UK only issue. Women everywhere report difficultly finding a worthwhile spouse and it has been creeping up the income/social status ladder.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Many people world wide are engaged in zero sum status games raising kids. My favorite stat is American dads now spend more time with their kids than moms did in the 60s. Moms response: spend even time with their kids. In the USA it’s the extracurricular chauffeuring; Japan elaborate boxed lunches
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Japan has the highest birth rate in east asia at this point.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The actual global issue is the math doesn’t work for us, India, and China all doing that.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The suitable man gap is definitely an issue.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Not just there problem! It’s probably why fertility is so low all over Asia and Latin America.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The craziest is how Japan managed to do this despite having made children’s travel just about as easy as possible n
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)
The British rail network is such a tremendous contrast to the American one. Almost makes you wonder why they bother to build roads n
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The complexity difference between these two sets of projects is enormous.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The time to debate the meme was 2021
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)
Cities are not for fun.
Stephen Jacob Smith (@stephenjacobsmith.com) reposted
The fire engineers I’ve spoken to about the UK’s post-Grenfell building safety regulation situation are all appalled. Even leaving aside the staffing issues raised here, there are few prescriptive rules for designers to follow for tall buildings, and what rules there are are often unreasonable.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
And of course of those ten largest 8 are semiconductors or software, one is Saudi Aramco, and the tenth is BH. Obviously the other exciting technological innovation of the last 5 years (GLP-1) is originally danish (and only 200B.)
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
How much of the size differential between the USA and Europe is due to the exogenous fact that UC Berkeley and Stanford were both really good at physics, electrical engineering and computer science? Even the tenth largest firm (Berkshire Hathaway) is >4 times smaller than the largest.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
The way you know she’s lying is you can’t study medicine as an undergrad.
Adrián (@elenoam.bsky.social) reposted
Working in the Monterrey Metro for two years has been interesting and sad. Mexico's richest city has some of the world's worst planning. Basically, the city sprawled in high-density isolated satellite cities in financially overwhelmed municipalities with huge housing abandonment.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Absolutely.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Feels like this should help our like England where HS2 hits a huge number of destinations.
Reg monkey (@regmonkey.bsky.social) reposted
He’s dead. They’re announcing he died
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Slow progress, but progress.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I think I spent about 30 minutes inside the Consular section and the visa was issued in two business days.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social)
It’s actually very easy to get a visa to go to china. It can be done in under a week.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Doesn’t Delaware pay for this service too!?
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah I assume this is from some NEC future doc?
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
This seems to be good advice for almost any research project for kids.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah this violates my rule about visiting. Now train station; no visit.
Pseudoerasmus (@pseudoerasmus.bsky.social) reposted
Last year nobody noticed Pickle's lunatic claim that extreme poverty in China rose from 5.6% in 1981 to 68% in 1995! You would think under-5 child mortality would skyrocket under such circumstances. No sign of it (but there was a slowdown in the rate of reduction in the 1980s relative to 1970s).
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I’ve never met a politician who didn’t want to prioritize rail to nowhere over good service somewhere. People forget that JNR debt was also driven in part by stupid rural construction projects.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I assume it’s not very railroad accessible?
Jerusalem Demsas (@jerusalem.bsky.social) reposted reply parent
Read more & subscribe! www.theargumentmag.com/p/yimbys-bea...
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
At worst the link should have been second!
Stephen Jacob Smith (@stephenjacobsmith.com) reposted reply parent
You gotta adapt to the local culture and put the link in the first post. You’ll get more traffic!
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Nice to see it just passed 50% approval to rejoin. Hopefully to can stay there.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I mean that was my point about seats v. Overall margin?
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Where is this?
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
I think brexit won is something like 2/3s of seats? Given that it was the issue and the lib dems firmly planted themselves as its opponents I think there are real limits to having a winning coalition that’s solely “Brexit was wrong” at the moment.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Problem with FPTP the pro-btw it coalition is absurdly efficient
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
They should have just lied.
Cruel Angel's 95 Theses (@grayathena.bsky.social) reposted
No more Braedynns. If you're Jewish, you get named for a dead relative, if you're Catholic you get named based on the nearest saints day and if you're Protestant you open a Bible to a random page and choose the first name on that page. Return to tradition
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah a state that can build you get things like high speed rail to Urumqi or Santiago de la Compostela. A Brazil that’s good at building trains has a network much larger than the example in the applet.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Yup looks right.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Scarsdale-mainline is actually a place where Amtrak probably Captures a non zero segment of the market.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Americans and already abandoned trains for driving. The one route I’m aware of the private company wishing to keep was LA-SD. Everything else was bleeding dollars.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Feels like a weird comp. Most intercity travel in the USA is by car, and that has mostly inferior performance characteristics to a train.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Im not citing an out of state number though I can’t remember where I read it.
Nilo (@nilo.bsky.social) reply parent
Americans are too rich for long distances buses for sure, they’d just fly. But east of the Mississippi rail demand is undertapped for sure.