And I was planning a quiet evening ... paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-emergen...
Ex NY Times, now author of Substack Paul Krugman. Nobel laureate and, according to Donald Trump, "Deranged BUM"
307,319 followers 180 following 22,236 posts
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And I was planning a quiet evening ... paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-emergen...
I have an unusual problem with the elimination of the "de minimis" tariff exemption. When I give talks abroad, the host often offers a lovely but awkward gift — say, a 20 lb coffee table book on the history of their city. So I ask them to mail it. No more. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
The muted market reaction to The Crazy doesn't tell you much about what will happen. Markets almost *never* react in advance to large but only potential disruptions. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-arent-...
And a friend sends me this, from a prominent crypto bro 2/
I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
If you think the attack on the Fed's Lisa Cook has nothing to do with you, you're wrong — any one of us may be next paulkrugman.substack.com/p/we-are-all...
Stagflation in some form is coming. The trillion-dollar question is whether inflation becomes entrenched paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-econom...
"Companies were reluctant to pass price hikes into stores, because they didn't want to make customers mad and lose market share. It's only now really sinking in that this is for real, and so the 'let's eat the tariffs for a while' thing is fading out." — @pkrugman.bsky.social
The only thing that can stop the renewables revolution is heavy-handed political intervention. Unfortunately ... 3/
One thing I see in comments is a lot of people still saying solar and wind are no good when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. People, there are these things called batteries, which have also experienced huge progress 2/
I wrote about the imaginary New Jersey windmills of Trump's mind and other topics 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/kilowatt-m...
New in PN: @pkrugman.bsky.social on Trump's teetering economy "The thing that’s extra damaging now is the craziness. Nobody knows what the tariff rates will be in six months. That means a lot of cash sits on the sidelines."
This means that the concentration of undocumented immigrants (and legal immigrants likely to get deported anyway) magnifies the overall economic cost. Deport half a percent of the work force? Not good. Deport 50% of agricultural workers, which is the same number? Very, very bad 3/
For econ nerds: The economic cost of deportations, like the economic cost of tariffs, is very nonlinear in the scale of the policy. Deporting 10% of an industry's workers is much more than twice as costly as deporting 5% 2/
Deportations and detentions will inflict a lot of damage on the US economy 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/iceing-the...
This is the way the bubble ends: Not with a pop, but with smog and brownouts. [Disappointed that some readers didn't recognize the TS Eliot ref] paulkrugman.substack.com/p/what-happe...
Murder is now well below even pre-COVID levels nationally through June in the latest RTCI sample.
Apparently some people over here don't know that I'm posting almost daily on Substack. It's free 6 days a week, with only the Sunday primers (which are very labor-intensive) paywalled. According to the U.S. politics bestseller list, this venture is going pretty well
It looks even worse when you add in the Trump administration's efforts to undermine renewable energy, which is at this point the main driver of increases in generation capacity 2/
Others have pointed this out, but once you start thinking about the *physical* footprint of AI, especially power consumption, the predicted boom starts to look very problematic 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/ai-is-powe...
I mean, what has happened in the past 20 years that would make you believe that there is a one-to-one relationship between money and prices? 3/
One thing I noticed in comments, and more generally in such discussions, is a lot of people saying "it's just about the money supply" You hear this from Trump people too. Illustrating the continuing power of an idea that is simple, clear, and wrong 2/
I wrote about stagflation, how it happens, and why it didn't happen under Biden. Next week about prospects under Trump 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-econom...
Aside from everything else, Asher attributes much of the big recent decline in crime to local spending — made possible by federal aid. A little-noticed benefit of Bidenomics — and an extra reason to worry about Trump-era cuts 3/
Important to realize that crime will be the next front in the war on data 2/
I talked with crime data maven Jeff Asher, whose always relevant work has gotten extra-relevant now that Trump is invoking urban crime as a reason to occupy cities 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-wi...
Losing Krugman's voice on the NYT page seems bad, but he's really taken it to a new level in his Substack, hasn't he? Unleashed, but not unrestrained.
Aren't we more or less at the one-year anniversary of many media reports about the imminent fall of the "strategic city of Pokrovsk"?
I had missed this excellent discussion between @pkrugman.bsky.social & @adamposen.bsky.social, two of the very best on monetary and macroeconomic policy and bringing it to the public square. Very much worth your time.
New York is a dystopian hellscape where nobody dares to leave their apartment gothamist.com/news/call-it...
So Trump wants Goldman to fire Jan Hatzius. But he hasn’t called Hatzius a deranged bum, so I’m still ahead on points
Well, this is flattering. I may add "Deranged BUM" to my profile www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump...
And I forgot to link to the post paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-econom...
As I see it, slight oversimplification in the interests of actually reaching people is not a vice 5/
I happen to know that for import shares and tariff rates in this range the numbers would be similar, while explaining the calculation to lay readers, even very smart ones, would be impossible. Whereas I hope at least some people understood at least the intuition of what I actually did 4/
Second, for ultra wonks only: you may notice that I did partial equilibrium analysis in a general equilibrium setting — calculating a Harberger triangle when I really should have been calculating compensating variations for a CES utility function. But ... 3/
There's a huge temptation to fiddle with the model to make protectionism look more evil. I've seen that happen, with all sorts of ad hoc additions to the loss calculation. And for sure basic trade models may miss stuff. But I wasn't going to go there 2/
Today's post was about what it means that high tariffs are probably here to stay, and I thought that people might want to see some meta notes about it. First, the long-run efficiency losses from tariffs aren't as big as many probably imagine 1/
Striking stuff from @pkrugman.bsky.social, who dismantles Trump's Europe deal from top to bottom. It will actually undermine US manufacturing, the "concessions" Trump won are fake, and Trump voters will be hit hard by the tariffs. All on the pod. Don't miss this one: newrepublic.com/article/1985...
How I wish America’s congestion-obsessed transportation engineers understood Paul Krugman’s point here paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-limits...
An instant post about that Japan deal. It's basically a joke paulkrugman.substack.com/p/about-that...
Interesting, nuanced chat between @pkrugman.bsky.social and @adamposen.bsky.social . Beyond a semi-professional interest in economics, it's always fun and educational to read good faith articulated experts discussing their field, almost regardless of what that field is.
How might recent tariff changes affect inequality? @pkrugman.bsky.social addresses the topical issue of what economic models say about tariffs and how they function as a regressive tax policy in Part III of his series "Understanding Inequality." stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/a-trumpian-d...
Bonus: My original post quoted Stephen Colbert. Sigh 3/
And sure enough ... 2/ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/whit...
So I wrote yesterday about right-wingers claiming AI is communist, and how Musk's attempt to tweak Grok away from that made it go full Nazi 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-road-t...
Some guy says something about tariffs www.npr.org/2025/07/14/n...
I usually stay cool even when writing about outrages. But for some reason the story of how crypto bought the government really makes me angry paulkrugman.substack.com/p/inequality...
Krugman's dread for the Fed: At this point the mere fact that someone is willing to work for Trump, knowing who he is, tells you that they’re willing to debase themselves.
Paul Krugman: Why You Should Fear a MAGAfied Fed open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
With everything else going on, I'm not sure people realize that Trump's latest tariff on Brazil took things to a new (lower) level paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trumps-dic...
"So while MAGA’s attempt to strangle clean energy will increase the risks of global climate catastrophe, it will also increase the risks of U.S. economic stagnation, forcing our nation to remain wedded to obsolete energy technologies while other countries march into the future."
Krugman is on the money again, Musk money paulkrugman.substack.com/p/muskenfreu...
America's superrich emerged in two phases: predatory finance followed by quasi-monoplies based on network effects paulkrugman.substack.com/p/inequality...
One guy down the hall talking with another guy down the hall. Paul Krugman and Branko Milanovic discuss global inequality, elephants, life chances, Rawls, and more. @pkrugman.bsky.social @brankomilan.bsky.social @stone-lis.bsky.social @lisdata.bsky.social paulkrugman.substack.com/p/global-ine...
Folks, CBO estimate of the distributional effect of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is out: www.cbo.gov/system/files... It's grotesque
There are times for wonky policy analysis and fun musical codas. But this isn't one of them paulkrugman.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
"Everything points to an effort to effectively destroy U.S. science — not gradually as part of a long-term plan, but over the next year or two." paulkrugman.substack.com/p/nobody-exp...
New article in Rolling Stone www.rollingstone.com/p/trump-dest...
So, was Florentine culture all about projecting soft power? A conversation with Ada Palmer paulkrugman.substack.com/p/inventing-...
Just FYI: Martin Wolf and I will be doing a series of podcasts for the FT. Landing page here, but also on various platforms www.ft.com/wolf-krugman...
Homicide rates: NY 4.5, FL 7.2 Life expectancy: NY 79, FL 76.1 Uninsured rate: NY 4.8, FL 10.7
Upcoming at 92nd st Y www.92ny.org/event/disast...
I strongly second Krugman's "letter to Europe." The EU should tell Trump to take his tariff and shove it. Hitting U.S. consumers with a huge tax increase is not smart policy, but as a reality TV show star, what does Trump know about economics? paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-letter-t...
The Soldiers' and Sailors' monument, New York. The pillar at the right reads FARRAGUT at the top, the pillar on the left SHERMAN. Both are engraved with names of the many, many battles it took to end slavery
Almost surely none of this is real. This is multinationals using inflated transfer prices to make profits appear in low-tax Ireland. Trump's EU trade war is stupid on many levels, but the fact that it's based in part on an accounting fiction is the cherry on top
One thing I haven't seen pointed out, although someone must have said it, is that much of the reported EU surplus is probably a fiction driven by tax avoidance. Ireland supposedly exports 6 times as much to America as it imports; it's 3 percent of EU GDP but accounts for 1/3 the trade imbalance
Along with everything else, Trump has threatened to put 50 percent tariffs on the EU, which would basically shut down trans-Atlantic trade. Many people have noted that (a) the EU has very low tariffs on US goods (b) much of the EU surplus in goods is offset by a deficit in services. But ...
This is a very enjoyable, super-informative use of your time. Great discussion between Paul Krugman and Barry Ritholtz. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
I wrote about the risks of a "sudden stop" if investors lose faith in America. The bond market is amplifying those risks minute by minute as yields shoot higher after the budget monstrosity paulkrugman.substack.com/p/gaming-out...
30 year Treasury above 5%. Also, I successfully used AI to do a Trump/Truss crossover, putting a Trump wig on a lettuce paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-liz-trus...
Also, fwiw, people do seem to want substantive, slightly wonky analysis
I probably should do more to let people here know about free posts on Substack. So here's today's: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/attack-of-...
Now back to Trump's big beautiful budget bill
In other news, Jack, who was a bit standoffish after my long trip, has decided to reconcile
So I took my life in my hands and went for a run in the urban hellscape. It was terrible! Hundreds of children playing on a bouncy castle and riding ponies!
"So even after Trump’s “climbdown” we’re still looking at a shock to the economy 7 or 8 times as big as Smoot-Hawley, the previous poster child for destructive tariff policy." paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-trade-...
So let me get this straight: masks are bad and un-American if worn to fight a pandemic, but good if worn by people claiming to be government agents when they kidnap people off the street
Another message from this "deal": kids don't need more than 3 dolls, but you can never have too many Rolls-Royces, which will now enter tariff-free.
So “Trump” just made a “deal” with “Britain.” Trying to emulate his style, with random quotation marks. I GUESS I SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE A SENTENCE IN BLOCK CAPS. Anyway, the deal was almost substance-free. The goal of policy seems to be to goose the market for a few days, with no long-term plan.
As we gear up for reconciliation, catch my interview with the legendary @pkrugman.bsky.social if you haven’t seen it yet paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-intervi...
So, just landed at Newark on time. Weird
key point from @pkrugman.bsky.social: it's literally impossible for foreign governments to negotiate with Trump because he and his people can't/won't even articulate a consistent set of demands paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-t...
In my Substack post this morning: "Does anyone doubt that when inflation rises, [Trump will] dismiss it as “fake news”?" I only got to be prescient for a few hours ...
Our new fellow @pkrugman.bsky.social sat down with @elizabethwwilkins.bsky.social to talk about today's economic landscape: "It’s funny that our great grandfathers were much more open than we are in saying that one of the purposes of progressive taxation is to actually limit extreme wealth."
📺 Watch the full conversation ⤵️ youtu.be/kgE5UloYnQk?...
I had actually missed Paul's piece! (yesterday was crazy) but we are drawing on the same broad literature and well of ideas to make highly complementary arguments.
🎉🎉🎉🎉 @rooseveltinstitute.org & @pkrugman.bsky.social: a great fit! Excited to see what you produce together 🎉🎉🎉🎉
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/happy-tax-...
Just remembering that my first Substack post after leaving the Times was about the fraudulence of DOGE. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-fraudu...
Deleted attempt to post spinning head from The Exorcist , which didn’t spin …
Putting up a few thoughts on the latest tariff swerve paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-trump-...
Paul Krugman and I talk Trump, tariffs, polls, data journalism, and a bunch of other stuff: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/an-intervi...
Import Chinese battery: 145% tariff Import Chinese battery inside Chinese laptop: 20% tariff Import Chinese battery inside Vietnamese laptop: 0% tariff Fuckin brilliant. A+ work here team. I am so glad there are such smart people working on our trade policy.
Michigan numbers are brutal. But one amazing thing: Republicans still think Trump will magically end inflation. From Goldman Sachs:
Relieved to see that the Budget Lab numbers are close to my back-of-the-envelope estimate. We're still looking at a shock an order of magnitude bigger than Smoot-Hawley
Suppose China's share of imports falls to 3 percent. Then the average of pre- and post- import shares would be 8 percent. So a crude estimate of the effective tariff increase would be .08*125+.92*10=19.2 percent. Close to but not quite Smoot-Hawley 3/
Think of the loss in consumer surplus from a higher price. It's approximately the price increase times the average of pre-increase and post-increase quantity demanded. So this suggests using the average of China's share of imports before the levy and after. 2/
A quick note on Trump's new tariff plan. It's 10 percent across the board, 125 percent (!) on China. What's the effective tariff rate? Well, China was 13 percent of imports in 2024, so you might say .13*125+.87*10 = 24.95. But imports from China will fall, so how do we adjust it? 1/
I interviewed Zach Carter last week stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/the-price-of...