What's not to love aboot that š
Polisci prof at McGill šØš¦āļø Democracy, rule of law, (anti)corruption in Eastern Europe šŗš¦ š§š¬ šŖšŗ; post-Communism; Russo-Ukrainian war and its impact on European democracies; #UkraineIsEurope #DefendDemocracy https://linktr.ee/popovaprof
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What's not to love aboot that š
Yup. They wouldn't meet w him unless he came to surrender himself and his country
Perhaps; imo thatās secondary but probably in the mix. Secondary because JD Vance could spin anything Pu says as a great concession. He already tried it.
Pu doesn't want to meet Zelensky for several reasons: 1) a meeting erodes Pu's cosplay as the leader of a great power that unilaterally decides other countries' fates; 2) Zelensky can't be hoodwinked w historical bs, which is 99% of Pu's material; 3) Pu's simply too chicken.
Understandable
Beware of one common euphemism-- Pu only wants a "friendly" Ukraine. To Ru, friendly has always meant fully subjugated and pliable. Just like the Soviet Bloc states were during the Cold War-- friendly meant lacking sovereignty. The only way Ru can achieve these goals is by occupying Ukraine.
šÆ
Realists like Mearsheimer always gloss over that. Or revert to the āprotect Ru speakersā theory, which is just as wrong but also competes with theirs. Itās pathetic mental gymnastics just to avoid admitting they got it totally wrong
They might actually believe it indeed
Come on now. Iām frustrated w Trump too, but any comparisons between the US and China, Ru or Iran are not serious.
Because the imperialist conquest frenzy is both wider and deeper than Pu and rationality. They donāt need the Donbas towns theyāve destroyed. They want all of Ukraine
Sure itās nonsense. Ru cannot possibly achieve that. But the Alaska meeting did feed the dream
BRICS fandom is a pathetic delusion. Not only are these states mostly awful dictatorships, but their alliance is skin-deep and fully transactional.
Some anti-Western westoids were just telling me that BRICS is a coherent organization of allies.
Some Quincy Institute dude is going to come tell you that Ru has moderated its demands when in fact Ruās demands vis-a-vis Ukraine remain the same, but Trumpās desire for a Russo-American reset has emboldened Ru to dream bigger than Ukraine about destroying the whole EU and NATO.
Putin, speaking in China today, again confirmed nothing has changed. He wants a pliable Ukraine, one that will remain tethered to Russia in some way. He added he wants to undo the "Eurocentric and Euro-Atlantic models" also confirming his aims for his meeting in Alaska, to split US and Europe.
Wow, what a comeback. Okay buddy.
Yeah, I see youāre really knowledgeable about banks šš No, thereās no BRICS central bank. Thereās a flimsy development bank w tiny resources.
And would it be so bad if it brings about peace? by Graham Allison
š though, they often areā stressing how Ukraine belongs to them and isnāt a real countryā but some people stubbornly refuse to listen.
"self-deflected anxious politics" FTW
šÆ
I used a 5-min segment on CBC News Network to push back directly against 3 separate myths we often hear. I emphasized that: 1) BRICS is nothing more than optics; it's members are not actual allies; 2) Ru maintains its maximalist demands; no progress was made in Alaska; 3) Ru isn't winning the war.
Pu says he doesn't want Ukraine in NATO. Trump says Ukraine won't be in NATO. Ukraine is not in NATO. Yet the war continues, Ru keeps attacking and there's no peace in sight. The war is very clearly NOT about Ukraine's NATO membership.
The Kremlin has recently been intensifying three rhetorical lines aimed at influencing Western decision-making in the Kremlin's favor: accusing European states of prolonging the war in Ukraine, levying nuclear threats against Western states, & claiming that Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
Absolutely! But what's most offensive to me is that Pu hasn't even offered to stop the war after these concessions, he drones on about the "root causes of the war" as if it's Feb 24, 2022, and Allison claims the onus of ending the war is on Ukraine's concessions. Like STFU already.
The latest ignorant, lazy, recycled take. Allison says this several times a year. Stop already.
Iām sick of Cold War has-beens like Mearsheimer, Posen, Allison, and Walt obtusely misinterpreting Ru and confidently regaling us w clueless takes about how Ukraine can end the war through concessions. Enough. Accept that Ukraine proves you wrong every day by not conforming to your warped theories.
Me too, but thatās a separate issue, unrelated to the proxy bs
Yeah, obviously European govts would rather not have to spend defence and deal w local selfish and propagandized voters
Yes, full on idiocy
I'm not Ukrainian myself, but I endorse the sentiment!
So many. @oxanashevel.bsky.social and I wrote this on Feb 24, 2022: www.justsecurity.org/80343/russia... But also for more pointed critiques: slantchev.wordpress.com/2022/11/18/p... and hegemon.substack.com/p/the-two-me...
A reminder for the āUkraine is a proxyā crowd which has come out of the woodwork again. Whatever propaganda the Russo-Trumpian alliance now tries to push, the truth is that Europe follows and backs Ukraine, it doesnāt set the goals or the tone.
Freaky to hear US officials channel unadulterated Ru propaganda. Let's use the right words-- Ukraine and the Europeans are indeed stopping Trump from trying to force Ukrainian surrender while calling it "a deal".
One possibility is Ru is starting to realize it won't be able to occupy Ukraine militarily so it is returning to its earlier strategy of trying to create enough chaos and destabilization as to cause state failure/collapse. Another possibility is pure revenge and hatred for Maidan's 2014 success.
Threatening the people who give out the Nobel Peace Prize
Wow: French President Emmanuel Macron just called out Trump at a major press conference with the German Chancellor š³
Yup
Russia has managed to seize less than 1% of Ukraine in the past 1000 days while suffering catastrophic losses. No wonder Putin is now insisting Ukraine surrender the countryās most heavily fortified region without a fight as part of any peace deal www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
This is my jam! I co-wrote this in The Military Engineer: www.same.org/tmearticle/t... And this about defensive rewilding in RUSI: www.rusi.org/explore-our-... I think there's a lot of potential application to Ukraine, hopefully with aid from the West.
Letās see. Iām not fully confident in Europeās resolve and Trump can break Ukraine if he fully sides w Ru. So far so good, but things could turn on a dime.
While the Trump admin and most of Western media waste time discussing whether Donbas can or cannot be ceded and whether a peace breakthrough is likely, Ru continues to demand ALL OF UKRAINE on a silver platter.
Ru wants to use diplomacy to subjugate Ukraine-- demilitarization so Ukr can't defend itself, neutrality so no one could deter a 3rd Ru invasion, and domestic policies dictated by Moscow, which Ukr society rejects. Ru can't achieve these goals w/o occupying Ukr and it can't do it militarily.
Zakharova said that providing security guarantees to Ukraine should be a result of a peaceful settlement, which, she added, will also "guarantee the security of our country." The aggressor wants security guarantees...
Groundhog day. Trump's cycle: hear Ru demands, try to impose them on Ukraine, blame Ukraine viciously, scold Ru softly, then threaten to walk away. He should do it already--end the useless Ru coddling he calls diplomacy and, if he's not going to help Ukraine, just walk away.
Now thatās a win-win policy
Ukraine has currently disrupted 17% of Russiaās oil refining production. If they can get the level to 30%, domestic demand would far exceed supply. Thatās when things start to fall apart. (Data by Rochan Consulting)
Youāre right. Thereās no debate; there was nothing formal. I mean that Ru may have expected or hoped for an informal commitment not to expand. If that did exist, it was wrong and imperialist and should never have been considered as a constraint on future expansion.
Yes. And not just about peaceā they weaponize everything: minority rights, language rights, gender equality, etc and the West has fallen into a bunch of their stupid traps (eg āRu speakers in the Baltics face discriminationā)
Yes. Itās a taunt meant to expose them as weak and indecisive
apple.news/AKwcH0eOHSVi...
Loud and clear: Ruās goal in these ānegotiationsā is Ukrainian surrender (demilitarization and end of sovereignty), which Ru has failed to achieve militarily since 2022. Eternal shame on everyone who pretends that Ru wants anything less and can be reasoned with.
Russia struck and destroyed an apartment building in Kyiv! At least 3 people confirmed killed. at least 9 are injured, including a child. Unfortunately, the numbers are likely to rise.
Kyiv is currently being attacked from every possible angle with hypersonic missiles, shaheds and cluster ballistic missiles šµāš«
That too
Correct. And the problem for the West was what to do given the demand by the EEurope and Baltic states that they be allowed to joint the West for protection from Moscow. Today too, Moscow's only approach to its own 'security' is to deny security to its neighbours. Moscow, try cooperative security.
Weak response. The Ukrainians are answering your disingenuous question every day with their actions. I was going to mute you but instead I will block you for spreading incredibly stupid Ru propaganda.
Ru has never been accountable to the global community, though.
A nice manel too
Not my call. If Ukrainians decide to surrender-- it's 100% their call and I wouldn't judge. They haven't done it. And since we're doing sarcastic questions disguised as curiosity: how many torture chambers, child abductions, genocidal policies in Ru-occupied territories do you plan to ignore?
You think this is smart criticism, but it just shows your profound ignorance abt the war. The "others" you imply--the West-- keep limiting Ukr's defense; the US is now full on trying to make Ukr surrender, but they refuse. Ukr defend their country because they know the horrors of Ru occupation.
Exciting!
He did. There was no promise about NATO, thatās šÆ. But it is at the same time true that Ru elites, maybe Gorbachev too, expected to recover and dominate EEurope again through a vehicle other than the Warsaw Pact and intl communism
Absolutely. Instead of being incensed on behalf of the Eastern Europeans being discussed like voiceless pawns, some Westerners are whining that the poor Ru aggressor may have felt misled... talk about the wrong perspective
Ru stops being aggressive for once? Oh sorry, you said realistically š
The debate about the supposed "not an inch to the East" promise to Gorbachev misses the main point. Yes, there was no formal promise but even if Ru informally expected to be allowed to dominate EEurope in perpetuity by dictating its geopolitical choices that should never have been respected!
Yup
All the more reason to think of ways to make it clear to Ru that it faces collapse if it doesn't try to climb down from this imperialist expansionist high.
The framing is awful-- it's the umpteenth attempt to explain how it's normal that Ru are not rising up to stop the war. I wonder how many articles were written to say "well, akshually, Hitler has to go all the way and Germans can't afford to try to stop him"
Vance pretends to be ignorant about basic history ("all wars end in negotiation") and lies about things we all witnessed a week ago ("Ru made serious concessions") to promote Ukr surrender. One can hold his political position for wtv utilitarian reasons but pushing it w such lies is moral turpitude.
Take a moment to appreciate Harry Trumanās negotiating skills. He got Hitler to surrender everything, agree to Germanyās occupation and then shoot himself in the head.
Kharkiv right now ā¤ļøāš©¹ Iām almost crying. Weāre banned from organizing celebrations. Warned against crowds and gatherings due to constant russian bombings. But weāre alive, and weāll keep living. Thatās our collective "fuck you" to russia.
Yes, it's going to be a big problem if all the veterans return
Yup
They arenāt fooled even in this. They know full well that their state has always done meat assaults. The ones who survive simply make this excuse for themselves so they donāt have to admit they wanted to kill Ukrainians
At least he seemed to have learned and updated since then. Others havenāt
The excuses Westerners make for Ru societyās consistent/broad support for the attempted conquest of Ukraine are endless! After Ā« they donāt know the truth Ā» and Ā« they are afraid of repression Ā», we now have Ā« they have to make a living Ā».
For sure. But unfortunately he has enough voters that Meloni is keeping him in the government. And there are Salvini types all over Europe
For sure. But the discussion truly is about post-war deployment
Depressing to see Europeans argue about troop deployment AFTER the war's over when the war's not at all close to being over.
1,000% correct! Every word! This š
I'll add this: by now the only thing we know is that he does NOT want to help Ukraine. If he wanted to, he would've used US leverage to pressure Ru, increased aid or even simply maintained it unproblematically without the several attempted stops. He also made concessions before talks started.
I don't think we know which scenario we're in and that's why people disagree on whether it's at all plausible he might help Ukraine (under some very narrow set of circumstances) or completely out of the question. In the first scenario he might, in the second he won't.
If he already wants Ru to win for wtv reason (kompromat, admiration for Pu, desire to reset Ru-Am relationship/make money/decouple Ru from China, etc.) then his cyclical rhetoric is a stalling tactic and cover because he can't openly support Ru victory while Europe and US public opinion are against.
If he wants a quick end/Nobel he sets/extends deadlines and alternates Ukr/Ru blame because above all he wants a settlement in whatever form. This thinking implies he'd get mad/give up eventually and then might help militarily whichever side he sees as "reasonable". Some hope he'll see it is Ukr...
By now, imo, Trump statements about Ru-Ukraine defy interpretation and are useless for prediction. His cyclical rhetoric is consistent w both: 1) he's wants a quick end + Nobel, not Ukr or Ru military victory; and 2) he wants Ru victory. Those are extremely different goals...
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By new banner, I donāt mean a new leader. I meant whatever the new format/ideology Ru wonāt stay unstable/chaotic for longā after each collapse (Ru empire, USSR) it rebuilds a strong state. The Ā« loose nukes Ā» and instability Western fear led to coddling the USSR and leads to coddling Ru now.
There are no good business opportunities in Ru but youāre right that many are afraid of Ruās collapse. Mostly because they fear loose nukes. Silly fear because Pu collapse will engender an immediate rebuilding of the Ru state under a different banner. They donāt do loose :-)
It's also time to stop humouring Ru's insistence that it feels insecure itself. It's absurd and we are helping legitimize Ru by saying "but oh we don't want to invade them but maybe they think it and that's what matters".
This isn't our problem. If he has to end it, he will. If that breaks his regime, so be it. (I don't believe it will, tbh)
The only solution to the war is Ru realizing it CANNOT take Ukraine. Instead, the West's thinking is wrapped up in how to convince Ru to stop wanting to take Ukraine. That's why they're looking for a solution Ru would agree to. Stop wanting to make Ru content/secure at other countries' expense!
Iām sorry to say but the claim that the US under Trump is going to provide Ukraine with militarily enforced security guarantees, is simply the newest version of the Trump will hit Russia hard with sanctions delusion. Neither will ever happen, but if it makes you feel betterā¦.
Not really. The day Euromaidan won, the majority in E Ukraine were mad but a minority wanted to break up the country and join Ru. Ru instrumentalized this minority, interfered militarily and still managed to only take a part of E Ukraine. The whole Ru-speakers want to be Ru is a Ru manipulation
Whoās responsible for planting this thought into his head? Give them more access to the WH
keep fighting, some want to take it to save lives. Heck, the best Ru can hope for is that increasing numbers would say: āI donāt give a fā,ā who controls Donbas. I bet after 11yrs of an alien invasion and some earthlings will want to accept alien domination. Doesnāt mean they welcome it.
Now a bit less, but many used to drone on abt how eastern Ukrainians want to be Ru and Ru is protecting them from Ukr state. Well, here you have itā half have left to avoid danger of living under Ru; from the other half, many want to refuse the surrender demand andā¦ apple.news/A1BJos1ACSk6...
Yes, but at the time the wolf was wearing somewhat convincing sheepās clothing.
Ukraine didnāt agree to it when Ru army was just outside Kyiv. Making the same proposal now not only exposes that Ru hasnāt budged an inch from its 2022, it also shows they have become even more unhinged thinking they can compel Ukr to agree when Ukr has stopped the Ru army in Donbas.