Final Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q1 2025: • My estimate: 355,000 • Analyst consensus: 377,592 I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 2.6% average over the last 12 quarters. The analyst consensus is based on Tesla's survey of 27 analysts, also known as the company-compiled consensus.
Love to hear how Tesla tries to spin this disaster.
It makes sense considering they switched factory lines to produce a new Model Y, and also cuz Elon sucks.
Damn, even most Tesla pessimists wouldn't predict 355k at the start of the quarter. I guess I have to stay with my 360k prediction that I made in the middle of the quarter.
336 😬
What does Tesla publish its Q1 delivery numbers?
April 2nd, 9 a.m. Eastern Time, on their website here: ir.tesla.com#quarterly-di.... Click on the 'Press Release' link when the Q1 row is added. Here are the exact times of past releases:
Oh boy, oh boy!!! 😲
Hope they get wrecked.
Rekt.
There is no way Elon will let them report anything near that. They’ll start counting pre owned sales or some other gimmick to paper over this Q.
Well one thing we know for sure is he’s not going to have crypto gains to paper it over with. Looking a -10+% QoQ
The actual numbers are in. My estimate was 5.4% too high, and the analyst consensus was 12.2% too high. Not a great score for me. The only consolation is that my production estimate was pretty close, thanks to the DMV VIN data. • My Estimate: 355,000 • Actual: 336,681 • Error: 18,319 • Error: 5.4%
Intra quarter taste changes gotta be harder to predict
Thanks for the transparency and consistent data. How do you roll this 5.4% downside error into your Q2 and 25E estimates? Clearly anti-Musk sentiment is strong and impactful in US and certain EU markets. China headwinds with competition. What's the path forward?
Good job still on the estimates 👍
Still, you were way more accurate than anyone else in the business. Nicely done! As always - thanks!
Stock up a bunch somehow. Bizarre! 🤔
Shorts are loading. There was also rumor of Musk leaving DOGE. Wallstreet doesn’t realize that Tesla brand is dead as long as Musk is connected to it in any shape or form.
Even if Elon leaves and sells his Tesla stock completely- we should never support that company ever again. All the employees, shareholders stood by an open Nazi
True, though if Tesla got bought by other car brand or maybe even Apple, I would re-think it.
There were so many hard-to-estimate circumstances, like Model Y shift-over and especially political turmoil, it's amazing you still were that close.
Looks like Elon has really wrecked things this time.
Crashing numbers
Does this mean that in spite of all efforts by Tesla the loss in sales outside China was staggering 25% compared to Q1 2024 which itself was a bad quarter? Keeping in mind that it is only outside China where profit margins are decent, this must have a devastating effect on profit.
From 423K to 336K in two years.
Yes, margins in China are zero. Let's wait for Asia Pacific numbers, Australia, Taiwan, etc., so we can calculate the damage in the US.
Do the numbers in those regions get published?
Yes, all countries where Tesla sells cars publish monthly vehicle registration numbers by manufacturer, except for the U.S., Canada, and the United Arab Emirates. For Tesla's European sales, check out the purple table here: teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/...
Troy usually publish them. He is the most well informed out there when it comes to Tesla deliveries and production.
Impossible Q to estimate deliveries given the CEO started torpedoing the company. Great job given the challenge.
I suggest that Tesla's PM for Q1 will also be below everyone's estimate.
336,681!
Hard to estimate the impact of going full Nazi
That would be a decline of more than 8% YoY (Q1/2024: 386,810 deliveries) and a whopping decline of more than 28% compared to last quarter. Anyhow we will see the lowest quarterly deliveries since Q3/2022.
Wow, Tesla Q1 deliveries were significantly lower than Troy estimated. They delivered 336,681 cars in Q1/2025, thus down 13.0% YoY and 32.1% QoQ. ir.tesla.com/press-releas...
Tesla got wrecked.
Rekt.
Would love a post of what projections were Jan 1?
Wow, 15k S, X and Cybertruck only in 3 months? Those fridges are really selling like hot cake.
Cybertruck is a huge flop. Even back in the day when I was a fanboy that thing made me cringe when they revealed it.
Imagine if Tesla had a pickup truck option with the looks of a Rivian.
Troy, you could expand your offering from simple estimates to also guess what pump will be used for Tesla to get people to ignore the steep decline.