Yes, but I can’t access the direct messages feature anymore. This applies to all users in the UK. I’ll probably use Bluesky much less from now on, since there’s little reason to build up a following here without DMs.
Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon. My average error rate is 1.4% for Tesla's production and 3.0% for deliveries.
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Yes, but I can’t access the direct messages feature anymore. This applies to all users in the UK. I’ll probably use Bluesky much less from now on, since there’s little reason to build up a following here without DMs.
I have this data until 7 Jun 2025, but the chart ends at the end of March 2025 because I post this content on Patreon and don't want to share too much information.
OK. See bsky.app/profile/troy...
Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • My Estimate: $0.42 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.
2/2 ... Q1 2025 that they sold for the same price as the Long Range AWD version (shown in blue). You can also see the gradual price cuts throughout Q1 2025, as Tesla cleared out the older Model Y Classic versions before launching the Juniper design refresh.
1/2 Hi everyone. The chart shows Model Y sales prices in the US based on DMV data. Each dot represents a vehicle, and each color shows a different trim level. The most interesting part is that some Performance versions (shown in red) were so heavily discounted at the end of Q4 2024 and ...
Hi everyone. The chart shows actual Tesla sales in Europe, based on vehicle registration data from 25 countries. In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units, down 29% year-over-year from 78,417 units in Q2 2024. Tesla has been struggling with brand image issues caused by political controversy.
• $7,500 federal tax credit ends after Sep 30, 2025. • Regulatory credits in the US end tomorrow. The Big Beautiful Bill cancels both of them.
Check out Sawyer's explanation. I agree with his interpretation. I also looked into this topic using Perplexity AI. x.com/SawyerMerrit...
Tesla sells these credits at a discount compared to the fine, making them the cheaper option. The new bill reduces the fine to zero, removing the need to buy credits. As a result, Tesla’s US regulatory credits will become worthless, though they will continue to earn credits in Europe and China 2/2
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as ZEV credits. Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits. 1/2
The table on the left shows my error rate. The one on the right shows the analyst consensus. My error rate is still lower than the consensus, but the gap is narrowing. I need more accurate results going forward, which means understanding what went wrong and finding ways to improve it.
For maximum transparency, here’s my delivery error rate versus the analyst consensus (based on Tesla’s survey, also known as the company-compiled consensus) over the past 16 quarters. Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.
Tesla deliveries were down by 50,129 units in Q1 and 59,834 units in Q2 2025 year-over-year. Q3 will also be challenging, as last year’s Q3 was strong with 462,890 units delivered. However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.
Tesla deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, the largest decline in the company's history. This follows a 13.0% drop in Q1 2025. Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.
This is my initial calculation for Tesla’s regional deliveries in Q2 2025. I’ll update the table as more registration data becomes available over the next few days.
Both deliveries and production were much higher than I estimated. I was expecting a 19.8% year-over-year decline, but sales fell by only 13.5% compared to last year's Q2. Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025: • My estimate: 356,000 • Analyst consensus: 385,086 • Actual: 384,122 • Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
July 2, 2025, between 9:00 and 9:10 am Eastern Time.
Here are my final Tesla delivery estimates for this quarter. I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 3.0% average over the last 12 quarters. Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025: • My estimate: 356,000 • Analyst consensus: 385,086 • Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
2/2 However, Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: www.tesla.com/findus/list/...), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.
1/2 Tesla is struggling to adapt to the new reality of lower sales. For example, sales in Canada have dropped to nearly zero, largely due to political controversy (source: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...).
Tesla doesn’t report Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X sales separately. Instead, it combines all three into a single number. That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.
Today's update on Patreon (patreon.com/posts/132143...) includes DMV VIN data up to June 25. I use it to estimate Tesla’s production. Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries. However, I’ll post my final estimates on June 30th here as well.
In the first half of the year, Tesla sold • 345,088 cars in North America in 2023, and • 313,727 in 2024, a drop of 31,361 units. The decline continues in 2025, but this time, the drop will be much larger than 31,000 or even 40,000 units.
Tesla's Global inventory increased from 77,000 at the end of Q4 2024 to 101,000 at the end of Q1 2025. A similar increase is expected this quarter, with production running higher than deliveries because of limited demand.
The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover. Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12): • Q1 2025: 116,119 units • Q2 2025: 109,520 units
As I said, 1.6 million units doesn't look possible. Deliveries will be clearly below that.
Based on the latest data, Tesla sales in Europe remain weak. The chart shows sales over the past few quarters, with Q1 2025 being very low, which Tesla blamed on the Model Y Juniper production changeover in March. However, Q2 shows no improvement over Q1.
Tesla will conduct a delivery survey with analysts. Typically, about 27 Tesla analysts take part in this survey. It’s the largest survey of its kind and is called the Company-Compiled Consensus. This was the previous one three months ago.
The numbers changed since my tweet below. 1.6 million Tesla deliveries this year no longer look possible. Analyst consensus is still too high for now, but it’s expected to come down over the next 8 days • My Estimate: Below 1.60M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.68M units • 2024 Deliveries: 1.79M units
Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down 35% YOY. Sales are down everywhere except Norway & Spain. Norway will be ~1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s small compared to the declines elsewhere
Tesla deliveries dropped just 1.1% in 2024. But this year, the decline is expected to be over 10%. Also, deliveries are expected to drop in all major regions, including North America, Europe, and China.
Yes, they are included. I'm assuming July 1st launch in China & Europe and October 1st launch in the US. Without that, the numbers would be even lower.
Q1 2025 deliveries were terrible Q2 2025 deliveries are expected to be very bad Sure, you could call that an improvement, if you want.
2/2 2025 Full-Year: Deliveries are expected to be between 1.5 million and 1.64 million units, down from 1,789,226 in 2024.
1/2 Hi everyone. Here’s the current Tesla delivery outlook based on the data so far: Q2 2025: Deliveries are expected to be between 350,000 and 395,000 units, down from 443,956 in Q2 2024. I’ll tweet my final estimate on June 30, two days before Tesla reports the official numbers.
5/5 Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units. Subtracting 42,931 puts the threshold at 401,025 units for Q2. If Tesla delivers 401,025 units or fewer, it would signal a very bad result, suggesting they’re on track for a 10% decline in deliveries for the year.
4/5 After Q1 2025, Tesla is already down 50,129 units. That leaves 128,794 units across the next three quarters, or about 42,931 units per quarter, to result in a 10% annual decline.
3/5 What would be a very bad delivery result for Q2 2025? A 10% or greater drop in full-year deliveries would be considered a very bad outcome. Tesla delivered 1,789,226 units in 2024. A 10% decline would mean 1,610,303 units, or 178,923 fewer units.
2/5 Since Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units, adding 16,710 sets a target of 460,666 units for Q2. Achieving that number would be a strong result, but at this point, it doesn't look possible.
1/5 What would be a good delivery result for Q2 2025? Tesla is currently 50,129 units behind last year after Q1. To close that gap over the remaining three quarters, they’d need to deliver 16,710 more units than last year in each quarter.
2/2 Cybertruck helped limit the overall decline in the US to just 5.7%, but if we exclude the Cybertruck for a more apples-to-apples comparison with 2023, sales of Tesla’s other models actually fell by 11.4%. I expect this trend to continue in 2025, with even steeper declines in Tesla’s sales.
1/2 In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%. In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth.
The stripped-down Model Y won't increase unit sales much because of cannibalization. It might help a bit, but not nearly enough. It will hurt Tesla's premium brand image in China, causing long-term sales damage. Also, it's not truly a new model, and there is no other new model either.
I post regular updates on Patreon, so I won't go into too much detail, but deliveries are expected to decline by more than just a few percent this year.
Tesla often responds to slowing demand with price cuts and promotions. As a result, deliveries in 2024 declined by just 1%, while automotive gross profit excluding regulatory credits dropped nearly 20%. I expect the same trend to continue this year, but with much steeper declines in both numbers.
Tesla deliveries dropped by just 1.1% in 2024, but I expect a much bigger drop this year. Based on Tesla's performance so far, deliveries in 2025 won’t be down just a few percent.
3/3 Apr 22, 2025: Tesla removed that statement from the Q1 2025 shareholder letter and said they will update the guidance later. So, it’s no longer a target either. In other words, Tesla is no longer aiming to match 2024 deliveries this year Source (page 10) digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-conten...
2/3 Jan 29, 2025: He didn’t repeat that in the Q4 2024 earnings call, so it is no longer a target. Instead, Tesla said, "We expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025," meaning more than the 1,789,226 vehicles delivered in 2024 Source (page 12): digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-conten...
1/3 Changes in Tesla's 2025 Delivery Guidance Oct 23, 2024: During the Q3 2024 earnings call, Elon estimated 20%–30% growth in vehicle sales for 2025. Source: youtube.com/watch?v=ScxN...
Analyst consensus for Tesla deliveries this year is now 1,731,000 units, lower than the 1,789,226 units delivered in 2024. Back in January, the consensus was over 2 million deliveries, but it has dropped since then. Still, 1,731,000 seems too high based on how Tesla has performed so far this year.
Tariffs will impact Tesla's energy business but not its automotive business, as they don't import cars from other countries to the US. The energy business accounts for 18% of profits. So, a 5-10% decline in overall profits is likely.
Tesla's Automotive Gross Margin Excluding Regulatory Credits dropped to 12.5% in Q1 2025, its lowest in recent years.
My summary of Tesla's earnings call: Elon is ramping up the hype as Tesla's fundamentals are deteriorating.
Yes, it will impact Tesla's energy business because Megapacks produced in the US use CATL's LFP cells imported from China. Tesla's energy business will probably shrink by 50%.
Unlike Q4 2024, there was no 0% financing offer for Model Y in the US in Q1 2025.
Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • Analyst Consensus: $0.38 • My Estimate: $0.38 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. We both arrived at the same EPS estimate, though some numbers, especially revenue and costs, are different.
Analyst consensus for Tesla’s 2025 deliveries has dropped from 1.85M to 1.73M since my last post below. The latest: • My Estimate: Below 1.67M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.73M • Last Year's Deliveries: 1.79M For more details, check out my daily updates on Patreon: www.patreon.com/posts/126674...
Tesla's sales in Canada were 53,000 in 2023 and 52,000 in 2024. This year will be much lower, most likely below 15,000.
How it Normally Works: • Dealerships submit a pre-application for eligible vehicles (no buyer name required) • The incentive is applied as an instant discount at the time of sale • If the pre-application is approved, dealerships have 90 days to complete the paperwork and request reimbursement 4/4
• Jan 12: The program ran out of funds. • Mar 6: Transport Canada released updated application data that shows the number of applications. Link: open.canada.ca/data/en/data... 3/4
• Jan 10: Transport Canada announced that the program would be paused at the end of March 2025. Source: canada.ca/en/transport... • Jan 12: Tesla submitted 9,741 applications over the last 4 days, compared to the usual total of around 900 applications for that same period. 2/4
The chart shows the daily number of applications Tesla submitted for the EV incentive program in Canada before it ran out of funds. Timeline of Events: • Jan 9: Tesla’s daily application volume began to increase. 1/4
Demand is soft, and Tesla sales in the US are declining. The chart shows what happened last year in each region. I expect the same trends to continue this year, though there’s a chance that sales in China could see their first yearly decline.
There has been political controversy since late 2022. At the time, many potential Tesla buyers were put off by Elon’s comments about Ukraine, Paul Pelosi, and Dr. Fauci. The article below, published on December 23, 2022, explains these well. www.cnet.com/tech/tesla-d...
Based on DMV VIN data, most Model Y produced at Tesla’s Fremont factory in Q1 2025 were the older design. The new Juniper refresh (shown in red on the chart) only started appearing late in the quarter. Each dot on the chart represents a Model Y vehicle identification number (VIN).
Yes, Giga Texas is down 40% from its peak. However, I expect it to get worse.
Production at Tesla’s Fremont factory in California is down by 25% from its peak because of demand issues. Survey data shows that U.S. EV buyers are moving away from the Tesla brand because they don’t want to be associated with the political controversy surrounding it.
According to survey data, Tesla's demand is down due to political controversy. The chart was published back in July 2024, but things have only gotten worse since then. civicscience.com/how-consumer...
Based on the latest data, Tesla's production at Giga Texas was as follows over the last 5 quarters. For more details, see: Tesla Production & Delivery History docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Demand is soft, and Tesla sales in the US are declining. The chart shows what happened last year in each region. I expect the same trends to continue this year, though there’s a chance that sales in China could see their first yearly decline.
Check out docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2/2 That’s just 15% of the one million units per year the factory was expected to produce, according to Tesla’s statement at the Giga Texas launch event in April 2022, also known as the Cyber Rodeo. Tesla has been struggling with demand in the US, Canada, Europe, and Australia due to brand damage.
1/2 Tesla announced that Giga Texas produced its 400,000 vehicle: x.com/tesla_na/sta... Only 400,000 units over the last 3 years is not a great achievement. Over the last 12 months, the factory has produced just 153,000 units. That’s just 15% of ...
Based on the latest data, the regional breakdown of Tesla sales in Q1 was as follows: Some people asked if US sales could be 128,000 units. No, because we have the actual numbers for China, Europe, and ROW. When we subtract those from global sales, we're left with 124,657 units for 'USA + Canada'.
3/ Check out this Google Sheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... I updated it today to add the numbers for Q1 2025. I'll start requesting new DMV VIN data for Q2 in early May and will post those on Patreon, but I will also post my final production and delivery estimates here on Bluesky on June 30th
2/ I use DMV VIN data to calculate production at Fremont & Giga Texas. This method was 98.6% accurate on average over the last 12 quarters I subtract the numbers for the three factories from Tesla's global total to calculate Giga Berlin. I've a public spreadsheet where you can see all four numbers
1/ It's easier to track Tesla’s production than its headcount. They have four car factories: Fremont Factory (California) Giga Texas Giga Berlin Giga Shanghai Tesla publishes quarterly global production, and the China Passenger Car Association reports monthly production for Giga Shanghai.
Here’s the same chart, but this time it shows the estimates in units. My final estimate was 355,000 units. Actual deliveries were 336,681 units, shown as the dashed green line. That’s the 0% line on the other chart.
Here’s how my Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 2025 changed over the quarter: • Day 70 (Mar 11): I was 5.7% too high. • Day 77 (Mar 18): My estimate improved. I was only 3.4% too high. • Day 90 (Mar 31): My error rate climbed back to 5.4%, mainly because a few optimistic assumptions added up.
Yes, all countries where Tesla sells cars publish monthly vehicle registration numbers by manufacturer, except for the U.S., Canada, and the United Arab Emirates. For Tesla's European sales, check out the purple table here: teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/...
Those weren’t car registrations—they were pre-applications for incentives. Typically, other dealerships apply for the incentive when the car is sold. However, since Transport Canada didn’t require a buyer’s name, Tesla took advantage of this loophole by applying before selling the cars.
Yes, margins in China are zero. Let's wait for Asia Pacific numbers, Australia, Taiwan, etc., so we can calculate the damage in the US.
No, those are 2024's Q1 numbers, not 2025's. See the 2025 numbers here: ir.tesla.com/press-releas...
The actual numbers are in. My estimate was 5.4% too high, and the analyst consensus was 12.2% too high. Not a great score for me. The only consolation is that my production estimate was pretty close, thanks to the DMV VIN data. • My Estimate: 355,000 • Actual: 336,681 • Error: 18,319 • Error: 5.4%
In Tesla's case, a delivery means the end user has physically taken possession of the car. Unlike traditional car manufacturers, Tesla doesn’t sell cars through dealerships—there are no Tesla dealerships. Instead, there are company-owned stores, delivery centers, and service centers
Tesla is expected to release its Q1 production and delivery numbers at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Over the past few years, they’ve always published them on the second day of the month. When the markets are open, as they are today, Tesla releases the numbers during premarket hours, at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Hi everyone. The chart shows how Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 have evolved throughout the quarter. We’re now just 4 hours away from Tesla releasing the official numbers. Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q1 2025: • 355,000 My Estimate • 377,592 Analyst Consensus • 386,810 Last year’s Q1 deliveries
April 2nd, 9 a.m. Eastern Time, on their website here: ir.tesla.com#quarterly-di.... Click on the 'Press Release' link when the Q1 row is added. Here are the exact times of past releases:
Final Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q1 2025: • My estimate: 355,000 • Analyst consensus: 377,592 I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 2.6% average over the last 12 quarters. The analyst consensus is based on Tesla's survey of 27 analysts, also known as the company-compiled consensus.
These tables come from a large spreadsheet that matches Tesla’s actual global numbers. Tesla doesn’t release regional breakdowns, except for revenue, which I also track and match. I also monitor Tesla vehicle sales in all countries and the list prices for every trim level across all regions.
Yes, the charts below are from two different updates on Patreon this month. I removed the last few quarters. The images are meant to show what the content looks like. Direct links to relevant sections: • Gross Margin: www.patreon.com/posts/123550... • Gross Profit: www.patreon.com/posts/124580...
3/3 I will also post my final estimates on Bluesky on March 31st to be transparent about my error rate, which averages 1.4% for Tesla's production and 2.6% for deliveries over the last 12 quarters. Tesla will release the actual numbers on April 2nd, at 9 a.m. Eastern Time.
2/3 I use DMV VIN data (Vehicle Identification Numbers) to track Tesla's production across all models & factories in the US. The accuracy of this method is 98.6% For more details, including Q1 VIN charts, check out my latest update on Patreon, where I post daily updates patreon.com/posts/125083...
1/3 Hi everyone. Latest DMV VIN data, up to March 27th, shows the following: • Tesla's Model S/X is at its lowest point in the past 14 quarters • Cybertruck production is at its lowest in the last 4 quarters The chart below is an old chart from Q4 to show what the data looks like when visualized.
Yes, despite more price cuts and promotions, my estimate is below 1.68M.
Tesla's sales dropped by only 1.1% in 2024 because they kept lowering their prices and offering more promotions. As a result, margins dropped to zero in China, but they still have OK margins in the US and Europe that they can sacrifice.
Tesla delivery estimates for the full year have dropped since my last post below. The latest: • My Estimate: Below 1.68M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.85M • Tesla's Target: 1.79M A year ago today, my 2024 estimate was 91,000 and analyst consensus 252,000 higher than what actually happened in 2024.
It's not expected to happen this year. The stripped-down version of Model Y, also known as E41, is expected to be released in 2026 first in China, then in other regions. See the news article below: www.reuters.com/business/aut...
Tesla delivery estimates for the full year have dropped since my last post below. The latest: • My Estimate: Below 1.68M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.90M • Tesla's Target: 1.79M A year ago today, my 2024 estimate was 111,000 and analyst consensus 280,000 higher than what actually happened in 2024.