Barring self driving, I'm not sure what can revive the Tesla EV business, esp. after the new Model Y boost/offset starts to wane in a few months.

The „Model 2“ should launch soon and might as well revive Teslas EV business to some degree as it will likely also bring relevant more utilization to its factories. But personally I don’t think we‘ll get more than an announcement in 2025. In any case, Teslas growth story is dead.

The "affordable" EV that's coming reportedly will be a stripped-down Model Y. That might slow the decline, for a bit. I don't think there is a "Model 2" - at least what we used to think of as an M2 - a small, next-gen EV. That's been shelved.

If that’s the case, it will actually accelerate the decline after maybe a year or two where this might attract a small new class of buyers. But it will mean Tesla won’t compete in the real affordable category for the rest of the decade.

Is there a Model 2? Where are the test mules, the retooling of production lines, cold and hot weather testing? Spy shops from inside the factory?

That's why it's likely to be a stripped-down Model Y. There's already a stripped-down Model 3 in Mexico.

In a healthy company, this chart should be the other way around.