1/5 What would be a good delivery result for Q2 2025? Tesla is currently 50,129 units behind last year after Q1. To close that gap over the remaining three quarters, they’d need to deliver 16,710 more units than last year in each quarter.
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I'll bet my pinkie (come get it if you can) that they'll not pass 1.55M cars this year. Obviously with 10 years free charging, interest free loans and lowering prices they'll sling some but taxi, dumpster, Y and 3 together won't make the cut. But will it matter?
may 8, 2025, 10:23 pm • 5 0 • view
Yet the stock keeps going up. Something is fucking fishy.
may 8, 2025, 9:42 pm • 6 0 • view
A lot of people have more money than brains.
may 8, 2025, 11:05 pm • 6 0 • view
It’s because they say they will launch a robotaxi service in June. If they do this and scale it, then the number of cars sold isn’t the most important thing. That’s why it’s going up.
may 9, 2025, 3:53 am • 1 0 • view
Elon has been promising robotaxi next year for a decade already. Tesla will probably launch *something* in june but I doubt it will be anything like promised and at a much smaller scale than everyone expected. Tesla always cheats so probably they have shadow drivers that drive the cars remotely.
may 9, 2025, 1:21 pm • 4 0 • view
Yes, they already said it would be very small scale in June, 20-30 model Ys, so investors know this, and it’s already expected.
may 9, 2025, 1:32 pm • 0 0 • view
This is what they're doing right now for the pilot. They have 100 robotaxis completing 1500 trips but the fine print shows you its with supervisors in the driver seat.
may 9, 2025, 4:33 pm • 1 0 • view
There are already autonomous taxi services operating now. Why will Tesla's attempt be any more profitable in an environment where a lot of people are boycotting Tesla???
may 9, 2025, 4:19 pm • 1 0 • view
I’m guessing most people will go with the cheapest ride, which Tesla’s in theory will be, because their cars cost way less to produce than a Waymo. Some probably will boycott but many will prob take the cheaper option.
may 12, 2025, 6:53 pm • 1 0 • view
I would soil myself in the back seat. Drop a dirty doubler and let it roll down the legs of my trousers.
may 12, 2025, 6:41 pm • 1 0 • view
The value prop of Tesla was that they could turn their entire existing fleet into FSD and dominate the market very quickly. With their approach to FSD almost certainly a dead end, robotaxi is like xAI. It'll put them as a backseat player in a major niche but never a leader.
may 9, 2025, 4:31 pm • 1 0 • view
Their Robotaxis are probably going to work on the Waymo model. Anyone who still believes Elon is as dumb as a MAGA.
may 9, 2025, 5:06 pm • 3 0 • view
Yeah but a robotaxi will cost Tesla an order of magnitude less to produce than a Waymo car costs for them to buy.
may 9, 2025, 11:38 pm • 1 0 • view
One tenth? How can they pull that off? They still sell for a lot and margins have plummeted.
may 10, 2025, 2:09 pm • 1 0 • view
I exaggerated, they can produce a car that *will be* (according to them) self driving for 25-30k, whereas Waymos are >100k so more like 4-6x, not 10x. But still a very material difference. It’s not what they sell to consumers for, it’s what they can produce for.
may 10, 2025, 2:16 pm • 0 0 • view
Yeah Elon has never been full of shit before. We'll see if this one turns out the way Elon says it will or if it's another Cybertruck style face plant.
may 10, 2025, 2:22 pm • 2 0 • view
Hah yes the cybertruck was a terrible bust. We’ll see!
may 10, 2025, 2:26 pm • 0 0 • view
They might be passable in Austin but roll out into areas with more tempered climate will ultimately fail.
may 10, 2025, 3:31 am • 1 0 • view
If you are this certain, you could make a lot of money shorting the stock!
may 10, 2025, 4:54 am • 0 0 • view
By all available metrics Q2 will be worse but here we are talking about another gimmick (cabs) saving the car company who can no longer sell or manufacture cars.
may 10, 2025, 5:10 am • 2 0 • view
They can certainly manufacture cars. Selling is the problem currently, not manufacturing.
may 10, 2025, 1:26 pm • 0 0 • view
Problem with shorting Telsa is you need to be able to stomach the stock manipulation that accompanies Elon. Look at their Q1 earnings (a disaster) for reference. The stock gained 200m in market cap because Elon lied to investors while saying he's also spending less time at DOGE
may 10, 2025, 5:09 am • 2 1 • view
They've been hiding true incident numbers for years by deactivating autopilot and FSD before collisions. It doesn't matter how cheap the taxi is if no one trusts the software.
may 10, 2025, 3:29 am • 0 0 • view
Yeah but that's just robotaxi, the newest grift. The original idea with them selling FSD into their existing fleet was that they'd operate kind of like a driverless Uber as they brought the 3+ million existing Teslas into L4. That's what Elon has been selling for a decade.
may 9, 2025, 6:35 pm • 2 0 • view
Robotaxi has same problem as Tesla - brand damage. People will just boycott it even if it’s the best transportation solution in the world. We all see how the brand deteriorated due to Elon.
may 14, 2025, 4:25 pm • 1 0 • view
Surveys (E.g. YouGov) show about 70% are willing to boycott a brand they object to. Elon has damaged brand A LOT, but I assume many get that there are >100k ppl at Tesla, and most don’t share Elon’s views. The proportion willing to forego a v. good solution may be much lower than 70% esp. in US.
may 14, 2025, 9:42 pm • 0 0 • view
I think I have to humbly disagree. None of those employees nor board members did anything to distance Tesla brand from Elon. No strikes, no CEO change. To significant amount of those 70% boycotters, Tesla employees and board members are accomplices.
may 14, 2025, 10:24 pm • 0 0 • view
None? There were signs in some windows of dealerships against musk. The board likely told him off if you listened to the change of tune / stepping back from gov stuff in last earnings call. And this guy: www.ndtv.com/world-news/t...
may 14, 2025, 10:29 pm • 0 0 • view
The employees have means to protest. They could also unionize and put some demands up. We saw what employees can do with OpenAI if they collectively act. Single guy protesting or putting signs in windows is like posting on social media - inconsequential.
may 15, 2025, 12:57 am • 0 0 • view
But the economies and good business of a robotaxi service isn’t that obvious, but reality has never stopped the stock from rising. Will truly be an interesting year for Tesla, the stock and company.
may 9, 2025, 7:41 am • 2 0 • view
2/5 Since Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units, adding 16,710 sets a target of 460,666 units for Q2. Achieving that number would be a strong result, but at this point, it doesn't look possible.
may 8, 2025, 9:18 pm • 14 0 • view
3/5 What would be a very bad delivery result for Q2 2025? A 10% or greater drop in full-year deliveries would be considered a very bad outcome. Tesla delivered 1,789,226 units in 2024. A 10% decline would mean 1,610,303 units, or 178,923 fewer units.
may 8, 2025, 9:18 pm • 16 0 • view
4/5 After Q1 2025, Tesla is already down 50,129 units. That leaves 128,794 units across the next three quarters, or about 42,931 units per quarter, to result in a 10% annual decline.
may 8, 2025, 9:18 pm • 17 0 • view
5/5 Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units. Subtracting 42,931 puts the threshold at 401,025 units for Q2. If Tesla delivers 401,025 units or fewer, it would signal a very bad result, suggesting they’re on track for a 10% decline in deliveries for the year.
may 8, 2025, 9:18 pm • 27 2 • view
Is 400k units in 2025Q2 even possible, considering terrible April results? A 10% drop in 2025 deliveries seems every optimistic right now.
may 8, 2025, 9:23 pm • 14 0 • view
But is it bad for a company trading with a PE ratio of 164 if the worst case scenario becomes the best case?
may 8, 2025, 9:30 pm • 14 0 • view
Tesla sales in Europe in Q1 are down almost 32k, and they will be down again in Q2. Sales in China held up well in Q1 with no impact seen due to the trade wars. I think this is the biggest unknown for me in terms of deliveries. Will Tesla China sales remain unaffected by the current US trade war?
may 9, 2025, 11:29 am • 2 0 • view