1/2 Hi everyone. Here’s the current Tesla delivery outlook based on the data so far: Q2 2025: Deliveries are expected to be between 350,000 and 395,000 units, down from 443,956 in Q2 2024. I’ll tweet my final estimate on June 30, two days before Tesla reports the official numbers.
I think California sales will be a key determinant
How does this compare to Q1 again?
They could sell more cars by boosting incentives and price cuts. It's interesting to watch how they're managing the collapse of the brand. They seem to be accepting a level of shrinking deliveries without too much damage to margins.
They really pushed prices on inventory Model Ys, offered 0% financing in many regions, up to several years of free charging and are untypically generous on trade-ins. Still sales are what they are. And afai margins really were damaged
In Europe their May comps aren't that hard so the overall numbers may not be too bad. The interesting thing for June in Europe is that there was a big wave of Model 3 last year, like the biggest of the year, which doesn't seem likely this year. so June could be awful.
Model 3 sales in Europe are collapsing. The new Model Y is keeping Tesla sales alive for now in EU market.
Neither are good, but we'll know for sure after June. Model 3 tends to do best in Southern Europe, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Good thing we have the robo profits rolling in
Elon claimed that there’s a rise in demand recently. Is there any truth to it?
Q1 2025 deliveries were terrible Q2 2025 deliveries are expected to be very bad Sure, you could call that an improvement, if you want.
Turning the chart upside down helps a lot.
June 30 has passed
2/2 2025 Full-Year: Deliveries are expected to be between 1.5 million and 1.64 million units, down from 1,789,226 in 2024.
Tesla will be extremely lucky to sell 1.5M cars in 2025. The shrinking sales in China will snowball, thanks to Xiaomi, Xpeng, etc
Regarding the full year deliveries, I wonder if you are taking into account the new cheaper models that Tesla said it would launch probably in the Q3 or Q4?
Yes, they are included. I'm assuming July 1st launch in China & Europe and October 1st launch in the US. Without that, the numbers would be even lower.
More or fewer incentives in q2 2025 vs 2024?