I agree that JD probably has worse odds but my confidence interval is pretty wide. Basically the question is, what happens if you trade some popularity for some competence in an aspiring strongman. I think it’s especially complicated because Trump is already unpopular, JD would just be more so
I think this question is easier to answer because I think the question actually is “what happens if you trade in a lot of popularity for some more competence”. The loss in popularity would completely outweigh the gain in competence by several orders of magnitude.
I just also don’t really buy the extremely common (but for basically no reason I think?) line that JD Vance is especially competent.
I mean, it’s comparative. It’s not asking if he’s highly competent, but if he’s more competent than Trump; specifically Trump while his brain is melting.
Maybe he is! I just don’t know why or how I would even have any reason to know it.
I think one factor that's hard to gauge is the degree of loyalty the GOP and vichy media would show to Vance, in the event of such an unthinkable tragedy 😐 To what extent will their need to hang together result in de-facto support of Vance as Anointed Successor?
But to speculate unreasonably, I suspect Vance is not only un-electable but un-nominatable, as one of Trump's sons, most likely Don Junior, would claim the ticket. Then Don would go up on the debate stage against the winner of the Pritzker/Newsom primary battle and I do not envy Don Junior.
I don’t think he’s especially competent, but a particularly mercurial orangutan is more competent than Trump