For NIDDK, I see 5 new R01s issued since 8/8, 4 of which were A1s. Since 7/1, only 28 new R01s have been issued (15 A1s). Seems very low, but having trouble using Reporter on my phone to look at FY24. From what I can tell, only 1/28 are MYF. So why exactly are the paylines so low?
I did same search for NHLBI and zero of ~25 new R01’s were MYF over last week. I am similarly puzzled about what is going on.
Probably all the MYF awards are smaller R21s? But I doubt that would have had the impact on the paylines that it apparently has. Something feels off about this.
Agreed. Something is going on that hasn’t been reported. The Armageddon paylines do not make sense based on what is getting funded and the assumption that NIH plans on spending all appropriated $.
Paylines are not success rates. Where an IC publishes a payline, many do not, this is essentially a guarantee. It is zero surprise those are super conservative right now.
To me, it is a surprise because the reporting has been that the 50% MYF policy is the causal reason paylines will get dramatically squeezed. But we are just not seeing the MYF policy be visible in awarded grants. This is the puzzle for me. What is going on?
They (whoever they is) just aren't allowing new awards to go out. I think it's as simple as that. The rest is just noise.
Yah there is definitely constipation with the political review. But the reporting has been that MYF will reduce # of new awards and I just don't see evidence of MYF policy in RePORTER.
I just feel like my conceptual model of NIH is not coherent. Which I suppose should not be a surprise! Incoherence and inconsistency is a feature not a bug of Vought/OMB/DOGE master plan
We will not know the full picture until one week after 9/30. Albeit a drying up after 8/15 will be a solid clue.
I also think many at NIH are doing the best they can under the present circumstances 🙏🏻
Hi Maria I am not disparaging NIH staff at all. They are doing their best under incredibly difficult constraints ;) I am just confused about how Vought/OMB policies are being operationalized, and what that implies for multiple grants my colleagues and I have that are pending.
Agree, difficult times for so many of us 🙏🏻
I agree, the process of issuing NOA & getting these out the door is taking much longer. My approach is to stay the course & keep submitting the best grants I can. Good luck to us all! Also, it’s a time to collaborate more/include co-investigators with effort. Together we stand a better chance.
What do you think we should be seeing?
I would expect many MYF R01's going out because presumably that would be the causal reason IC budgets are squeezed. Yet at NHLBI for example of 125 new R01's awarded since July 1, I cannot identify a single MYF award
At NCI though it looks like ~1/4 to ~1/3 of n=77 new R01's since July 1 are MYF'ed
I see about 14 new R01 applications funded since Aug 10th by the NCI …. and half are MYF!
Yah since Aug 10 it was 6 of 10 new R01's were MYF'ed!
If a given IC is interpreting the directive as half *of all r-mechs* then they are able to do this with R21, R03 awards to save R01s. Thus minimizing the doom and gloom. Some ICs are clearly doing a lot of R01 as MYF, NIAID is an example. That should ultimately decrease success rates for FY25.
Then there is an IC like NIAAA which has issued only 5 new R01 for FY25. No idea what they are playing at. Possibly anticipating the 40% cut in FY26 and doing a strategy whereby existing grants don’t have to be cut.
Yah the heterogeneity across IC's is really shocking, It reveals what a cluster it is for NIH staff right now to implement ever-shifting and ambiguous (and sometimes illegal) high-level guidance.
As long as they spend all the FY25 allocation, no problem.
Yes
When NCI published their payline (has any other IC done similar?) perhaps they didn’t know if they were going to get away with 50% of “grants” and could load up on R21 MYF to avoid R01 MYF.
If they can avoid R01 MYFs, then presumably more grants can be paid, no? As far as I know, no other ICs have release official paylines. I'm only going by what my PO told me is the payline at DK. I just hope they spend what they have available.
I assume if they met the letter of the law with two year R21 instead of 4 year R01 than yes, more grants could be funded in FY25.
I dunno if DK publishes funding strategy but a PO giving you the unofficial payline is even less reliable, ie a conservative estimate.
Now maybe the ICs have gamed out every scenario. And you are hearing the straight dope. It’s possible. My NIAAA focused peeps were hearing “zero new grants” many weeks ago. They are mostly correct but I think I saw 1 new R01 come out recently.
NIAAA is just sad. Only NINR looks worse.
Two! Since 8/1.