Thanks for the shameless self promotion, Ray. Many respected scholars and practitioners have noted revision are common; so how did Ray manage so well in the past. So, exemplary leadership is terminating the leader of a department with no plan in place?

I'm not sure he's agreeing with the reason for the firing. I doubt it's the BLS director's fault the initial reports had to be adjusted down so much though. DOGE probably dumped half the people that were doing the surveys they use for the estimate.

He’s not but the way media works Trump will use his name for it now. “Even Ray Dalio, who normally isn’t a fan of mine….”

Dalio said that Trump needs to make “his thinking clear” two hours after Trump posted “Last week’s jobs report was RIGGED”

yeah after reading The Fund, Ray Dalio is the *last* human I'd want to give personnel management advice...there are still people living who wish they'd been fired by that asshat

Dalio knows his subject well. He's an expert on privileged information impacts.

Ray Dalio thinks ADP’s numbers are “much better”. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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also, if by "private" he's referring to things like ADP's payroll numbers, those are notoriously inaccurate.

but making up numbers is hard to do.

Another legend in his own mind. US is circling the drain , and huge efforts will be needed to stop it just disappearing from view.

Also he is lying about private numbers being better

Trump would have loved it if BLS had adopted @raydalioofficial.bsky.social methods and come out with the much worse numbers, 3 months ago. Good thinking Ray - Trump fired her for being too optimistic about the mess he made. Why didn't we think of that - maybe not enough ruthless honesty?

It would be nice to know what the recommendations would be to get the private sector to respond to the surveys faster? Should they be fined? If reporting on revisions could also more clearly spell out that they aren’t a failure of the initial data set, but of it being updated as more data comes in.

What an idiot that guy is. Does he think the Boeing CEO is on the line building fucking 787s? The Chairman of the Bureau doesn't sit alone in a room and play with numbers. There are DOZENS of agents, some even *men*(!!), that worked on this report and calculations. The numbers aren't HERS.

Dalio has been investing in China for a long time, he knows what it takes to do business in a dictatorship.

Tired of smug rich people. "I assure you" bla bla bla

It’s going to take US Americans a while before the get ‘dictatorship’….

Nope Got it Trying to fix

@alt-text.bsky.social

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The entire narrative to paint the revisions and response rates as something terrible and fundamentally flawed is deeply disturbing. We’ve entered a world in which we make up a narrative after the fact and then try to spin it into truth. It was political retribution and that’s that. End of story.

Also, it’s empirically false: bsky.app/profile/benz...

So dangerously petty.

Well the good news is- There will be ALL good job reports under the new appointee🙃🤣

Broligarchs seem to have all the answers - in hindsight. They also appear to lack the emotional intelligence to tolerate systems that include humans. No wonder they have AI and robot fetishes.

Also, improvements require manpower, which requires an increase to a budget, not a decrease of both. DOGE ended that option, so they're working with what little they have left to still produce numbers at all, you moron

Yeah, seeing the pretend 'discussion' on estimate quality is jarring. It isn't about it, because they don't even know how precise the estimates actually are. To compound it all, they also don't even know what results of these measurements mean, because a measure on its own is often not insightful

Ray Dalio wants us all to know that he is a smart, special boy.

People in financial markets should be hair on fire about the firing.

People are still sane washing the admin / are in denial. even if you start at the position that BLS estimates have for years been inferior to private sector analysis, the way in which the firing happened and the motivation behind it is going completely unexamined. And Ray Dalio should know better

Folks at BLS are amazing. I can’t imagine the damage this is doing now to staff. My hairs has been on fire for months, I’m surprised I have any hair left.

These idiot savants should keep their mouths shut. All they're proving is they're only good at one thing, and probably only "good" at it because of luck.

The cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits and SSI is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners And Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Under reporting CPI-W cuts purchasing power of Social Security recipients.

They should be, but a lot of them are Republicans so just needed a weekend to find a justification for why the BLS firing was good actually

The stock market rallied all the way back from Friday. It's basically told Trump it doesn't care about the firing. Our institutions are breaking down badly.

Wall Street is begging for Trump to appoint some Fox News host to be the next FED chairman.

The markets are falling into a sense of complacency that Trump will moderate himself before the really bad policies can come into effect… but the only thing that triggers that moderation is market reaction. They're playing musical chairs on the Titanic.

I think that interpretation is extremely generous.

I posted almost this exact same thing on here a few days ago. I definitely agree with you. I even wrote they're "shuffling chairs on the Titanic"! - I'll try to find my post for you...

Yeah there seems to be a contagion effect. It's weird.

I would not have fired her. Large revisions suggest a need to improve the process, or delay reporting. Which would be more damaging to the credibility of the numbers: large revisions from a well-defined but imperfect process, or knowing that there was an overtly political appointee in charge?

Also, the Feds produce most of the data that he uses to follow the economy and bet on where it's going.

The fact they aren't is interesting. Official stats support 3 types of decision-making: a) technocratic - eg Fed on interest rates b) democratic - eg vote out the govt that gave us unemployment, inflation c) private investment Maybe for c) *accurate* stats are less important than "number changes".

Of course, to do c) well in terms of generating profit etc you want good understanding of the actual economy, and good official stats. But if you are just in the financial market for the casino / beauty contest and betting which way everyone else goes, they could just as well be random numbers.

@freerangestats.info sorry I misunderstood your post. You're exactly right. For a man like Dalio, it's no problem if the BLS numbers are unreliable. In fact, it's even beneficial for him. The more difficult it is for investors to assess the economy, the more likely they'll seek his advice.

it’s real money too. TIPS will be a mess if the WH starts manipulating the CPI. BLS does the employment and inflation data.

yes, I agree - but I see this as part of a) (technocratic decision-making with eg index-adjusted benefits) and then presumably b) (if things get too bad, people will start changing votes).

So Dalit should be fired or never go on tv if one of his predictions is wrong? What is wrong with these people? The surveys were wrong. it was fixed when actual data came in. The jobs numbers were off by .01% of total jobs in the US. Dalio would be lucky to be that good in his models.

The guy has a bestseller in China about the rise of a 3rd world country to be a global leader in a great. Maybe lets not take Dalio seriously anymore?

Since Erica McEntarfer got the ax, the agency she headed will be renamed. Henceforth, it will be known as "The Big Beautiful Bureau of Positively Glowing Labor Statistics."

Exactly!

Doubt he was lobbying Congress and the Administration to increase funding and staffing before Friday, because that, not political interference, is the remedy.

They’ve lost funding and staff this year.

Exactly my point.

Is he…saying that the revisions that angered Trump are actually more accurate than the initial numbers, and then retconning it to say that DJT wants to fire her because the initial numbers (which did not anger him) were too wrong? Did I just get dumber via the act of trying to follow his reasoning?