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Prof. Michael Fuhrer @michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social

I don't know the answer. Some guesses: (1) lower severity affects the more severe outcomes (death, ICU, hosp) relatively more. Severity could be lower because (1A) immune escape variants infect those with acquired immunity to a greater extent. Also infections skew younger for same reason.

aug 31, 2025, 2:58 am • 1 0

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Prof. Michael Fuhrer @michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social

Or (1B) intrinsic change in severity (no particular evidence for this). Or (2) a change in testing, or coding of deaths (no particular evidence for this either. After the wave we'll have a better picture, and can break out by age, geography, etc.

aug 31, 2025, 2:58 am • 1 0 • view