Even if the California referendum passes, there's a reason the GOP is escalating this since +6-7 is substantial: but Dems can cut that in at least half if they redraw New York... by 2028.
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Of note, @danahoule.bsky.social says the 5 from TX are based on Trump 2024 numbers. Using 2020 numbers, TX Rs might net only 3 more. & 2016 numbers might be more likely, potentially shrinking the gains further. I also see Trump is underwater in IN, MO, & FL. I wonder how that affects the calculus?
aug 23, 2025, 10:07 pm • 3 1 • view
Will they try it after what happened last time? Seems like the courts like Republican gerrymandering but not Democratic.
aug 23, 2025, 8:58 pm • 0 0 • view
Well the NY court membership changed and the court signaled it has a different outlook on this
aug 23, 2025, 9:02 pm • 5 1 • view
That’s good to hear. Something Texas Republicans don’t seem to worry about at all
aug 23, 2025, 9:04 pm • 0 0 • view
Let’s not forget that the Dems are down 3 seats because of deaths, and those sets will be filled, 2 in Sept, 1 in Nov.
aug 23, 2025, 9:13 pm • 6 1 • view
Maryland can give them 1, maybe Illinois squeezes out 1 more. Can the Dems bring a lawsuit in NY State to re-open the redistricting process? Maybe squeeze one more out that way?
aug 23, 2025, 8:53 pm • 4 0 • view
Illinois can wipe out Rs if they want to. All of the Chicago area districts can incorporate portions downstate. Fairly simple.
aug 23, 2025, 10:36 pm • 1 0 • view
so could CA;
aug 24, 2025, 10:05 pm • 0 0 • view
That's what NY Dems did in 2023-2024... and then redrew a map that barely changed anything.
aug 23, 2025, 8:53 pm • 10 1 • view
if you seriously think this moment isn't different from pre-2024 then you are irredeemably naive
aug 23, 2025, 9:19 pm • 1 0 • view
Hochul's language has at least been, IDK, encouraging? Of course, this is just about always true: youtu.be/hS4jhdcGHAs?...
aug 24, 2025, 5:49 pm • 0 0 • view
3 seat gain despite the state shifting by double digit right is not "barely changing anything"
aug 23, 2025, 9:35 pm • 1 0 • view
the map was barely changed; as Taniel says; the Dems gained 3 seats because the statewide margin from 2022-2024 shifted in favor of Dems by 6%
aug 24, 2025, 10:04 pm • 0 0 • view
I guess some NY incumbents are going to need to take on some risk if it will work. I know Oregon said no way but maybe they can be convinced?
aug 23, 2025, 8:56 pm • 0 0 • view
Maryland, Colorado, New Jersey, Virginia. Those are the states you need to look at. Not Oregon, that won't work. Washington might be able to get 1 + shore up MGP
aug 23, 2025, 9:20 pm • 2 0 • view
Is there any risk at all in them creating accidental flips? Probably not, just making bright red counties in to regular red, but wonder if there’s a point where it can backfire.
aug 23, 2025, 8:59 pm • 2 0 • view
There could be in an extremely good blue year but at that point they won’t really make a difference anyway
aug 23, 2025, 9:01 pm • 8 0 • view
Ah yeah that makes sense. Thanks!
aug 23, 2025, 9:03 pm • 1 0 • view
we have to destroy the country in order to save it
aug 23, 2025, 8:53 pm • 0 0 • view
Over to Mr. Morris
aug 23, 2025, 9:09 pm • 0 0 • view
New York should get moving now so they can have new maps by 2026.
aug 23, 2025, 9:56 pm • 0 0 • view
Don't forget the litigation in Wisconsin to undo the Koch Block gerrymander there.
aug 23, 2025, 9:00 pm • 4 1 • view