NEW RESULT: Democrats have flipped a state Senate in Iowa. This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%. This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
At least a little good news today amid all the bad.
The Republican Political Party betrayed the farmers. Iowa is 85% farmland. Consequences.
That is great news!!
Fuck yeah!!! The fight continues.
that is a whopping shift
Good
This suggests all the gerrymandering in the world won’t help the GOP
Low information voters who also tend to be those who break for Trump in the final weeks before the general election simply do not show up to vote in special elections for state senators.
Agreed but a 20 point swing is huge. Even a 10 point swing across all races with current districts would give the Dems >20 seat advantage.
This bodes well for next year.
Sioux City!!!!
"That's a good one, too."
bsky.app/profile/beve...
Did an entirely different electorate turn out? Who are these Trump to Democratic state senator voters?
I think that Trump won in a lot of states on the basis of low-information voters: people who get their political news from a TV with the volume turned off, at the back of the bar. Kind of by definition, low-info voters don’t even know when special elections happen, so they don’t turn out to them.
So yes, an entirely different electorate turned out. What that means is that today’s result is a pretty useful predictor for the 2026 midterms, but cannot tell us anything about 2028.
Hmm, could Grassely get Mowed?
He’s not up for reelection until 2028. Earnst, on the other hand, could be in big trouble next year.
God Willing
Grassley will be 95 in '28. He has to be close to finished.
From your mouth to God's ear. 🙏👍
How empty does your life have to be that you don't ever want to retire? I'm chronically ill & if I could move as much as this numb AH I'd be doing so much fun stuff. Besides the actual money to do fun stuff. Just digging your own grave level of AH.
Like most addictions, addiction to power doesn’t go away with age.
100% but seems like a very small life. As much as politicians want to seem authentic they are so many weird freaks.
Don't threaten me with a good time!
He's not leaving by election LOL
seems strange to me that seats that trump won by huge margins are now flipping by those same margins , especially now that elon musk has gone
Buyer's remorse?
It's partly that the people who turned out for Trump were often people who weren't paying that much attention to politics, and that's usually the same people who don't realize special elections are even happening. But also people in general are pissed!
Thank you to Sister District for organizing phone banks and @tovoters.bsky.social for doing post card campaign for this race! We can all help flip seats everywhere! So many orgs doing the work.
Wahoo! Fuck yeah!
Good news! Should be more!
Selzer vindicated?
Still no reason to allow Iowa to set the Democrats presidential trajectory by having the caucuses start off the primary season. Very conservative, maga country.
HELL YES!!!
Another reason there will not be free and fair midterm elections.
This is what happens when you don’t have Elon e-stuffing Tabulators. #AuditSwingStates @electiontruthalliance.org
Hooray!
Well, well, well. Guess the gerrymandering is going to have to get super specific and obvious now, isn't it? Hahaha! Power to the People! Only you can save America now!
Gee, I thought Democratic approval was in the toilet. That’s what lefties and progressives keep screaming, anyway.
It does appear to be by much of the approval rating polling. Right now the Dems may just be benefiting from being the only alternative to a far less popular GOP. I think the true test will be when the primaries start. That's when we'll see if the disapproval is real or just current frustration.
🥳
Finally some good news!!
Awesome!!!
Think he’ll deploy the national guard there now? When will he directly look into the camera and intimidate voters. “Have you donated to Trump?” “If these people knew what was good for them they’d vote Trump” It’s coming
dave wasserman & lakshya jain: this means nothing.
Proud of my state tonight! Baby steps back to sanity.
Blue tsunami baby!!!!
SWEET!!! 💙💙💙
Is Iowa figuring out “Trump bad”? Good for them, now help us!
Are Iowans starting to finally understand and realize that their Republican representatives are a danger to them and their families?
Will we hear about rigged polling or something? I just hope it keeps up. I’ve been impressed by @robsandia.bsky.social
Iowan here: ABOUT FUCKING TIME!
Halle-freaking-lujah! 🎉🎉🎉
A glimmer of hope!
Can you donate to me
Congratulations iowa
Ann Selzer was right she just got the year wrong
🎉🎉🎉🥂
Hell yeah, Iowa! go.bsky.app/DRFs9Fy
Excellent!
FANTASTIC!
📌
You love to see it
Awesome
Nothing changes sitting on your ass, you need to run.
This is great news! Thank you for sharing! I spoke with a friend in D.C (I moved away a few months ago) and I am struggling with the description of what I have only seen in independent media. Go Iowa!
👏👏💃💃👏👏
Is the national party finally putting resources into the so-called red states, or are these candidates just dragging the party to the finish line on their backs?
Excellent question. Democrats spent 7 Billion last cycle. About what MAGA and Trumpstein spent. That was to defend seats. Not to advance, much. As long as New York controls the DNC @schumer.senate.gov and @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social are gonna make Dem candidates drag them across the line.
I find it enraging that Dem leadership has convinced white coastal liberals that the "red" states are full of irredeemable goobers, abandoned millions of voters to uncontested races, voter suppression, and gerrymandering. Even the GA Senate victories didn't shift the narrative.
And also we can’t get the mileage from the media that MAGA does. Georgia should have been front page and lead story for weeks. With full expose follow ups. GA was a Trump embarrassment. We can’t even get hardly a peep about what’s going on in Tennessee for years now. But hear all about Oklahoma.
The more you know…https://bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3lxcrbvw5pc2j
I don’t know what we do? We force seniority onto every new Dem we put in DC and then by the time they do their time they are just as corrupt and compromised. Say what you will but these MAGA that blew in in ‘18-‘22 have been pretty successful. We can’t recreate MAGA because we are too tribal.
Start supporting organizations like @runforsomething.net or Leaders We Deserve who are helping young, progressive candidates all over the country.
Thank you.
Yes. They put a lot into this race. Sometimes they do it under the radar because honestly “Democrats” is like a swear word in some of these places.
I promise I’m not making that up — Dems worked on this one! bsky.app/profile/the-...
Normal thermostatic reaction, plus Dem coalition is now built in a lab to over-perform in specials
That’s interesting. Why is it the case? More educated voters turn out in those elections?
Not necessarily education (though that is going to be a co-morbidity here) but engagement. Low engagement voters supported trump in both 2016 and 2024 by a pretty significant margin. Unsurprisingly disengaged/low engagement voters don't vote as much in midterms or special elections.
I don’t know that the Dems should stand in that precedent anymore. they may have been low engagement voters before but that could very well change even for the midterms. Just my two cents.
what makes you think the precedent won't stand?
As an Iowan, I say YAY US!!!
A "state" senate seat...lol
Joni Ernst is next
Holy shit, a 21 point shift. In IOWA. In favor of a Dem. Who once had pink hair!
Nature is healing!
Yes!!!!!!
Thank you “The Democrats” for investing in the ground game. Volunteer instead of bitching on the internet kids. Thats how elections are won.. bsky.app/profile/bill...
Boots on the ground Full coffers Good messaging If we want to win this is the minimum
Hell yes, Iowa
More context here… bsky.app/profile/tani...
invite her to bluesky 😎
Will there be another long delay before CA results are finally tallied as in the previous elections?
Between this and that 1 point poll earlier today, how do you think Joni Ernst is going to sleep tonight?
Which poll, Dave?
www.newsweek.com/iowa-senate-...
I hope she sleeps as well as she deserves to.
Argh, my apologies for the typos in the first post: Her name is Catelin Drey, and Democrats flipped a state Senate SEAT. (My sense is this is clear enough from the context and people’s replies… but I can delete if that feels unclear.)
Your excitement over this momentous event is excused.
California: The Shoults race has been about as low-energy as you can get. We hardly know it is going on and it is our district.
It’s clear enough
Outstanding!! I don’t live in Iowa, but am very happy for all wins to flip the GOP anywhere!! Very happy for Iowa residents!
Are people waking up from their MAGA comas???
📌
LFG, my awesome neighbors to the south.
We need some good news!! Yay!!!
Don't get too excited about this and think it leads to something more. It's good to get rid of the super majority, but Democrats almost always over perform in special elections. The problem is the hogs still come out to vote in generals.
New Texas map could flip GOP seats 😂
I’ve been thinking that, from the start. Mid-terms often swing against the administration’s party, even when thinks only suck a little. 2026 will be a hell of a fight.
Congratulations, Iowans!
I'm proud to have been a part of this today.
Amazing what happens when Farmers can't give away Wheat, Corn or Soybeans due to China's tariff response.
Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst. 😵💫 You WILL remember these two minions praising the dictator when your at the voting booth, and vote for those that believe in Madisonian democracy. Grassley and Ernst have gone over to the dark side, accepting dictator’s new NRx run administration.