yeah my modal prediction is Sherrill winning by less than she should but enough that we know on election night, then pretty quickly becoming one of the least popular governors in America and never recovering
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the Kotek Pipeline
aug 27, 2025, 5:45 am • 3 0 • view
i hope she would succeed as governor, but there are way too many ticking timebombs in NJ state government a lot of this is just "i hope the right person has her ear at the right time"
aug 27, 2025, 5:52 am • 13 0 • view
and we happen to know that the wrong people have her ear, often literally the same people who lit the fuse on the bomb that's about to go off.
aug 27, 2025, 5:53 am • 13 0 • view
katie brennan must do a heist to get into sherill's inner circle, for the sake of the state
aug 27, 2025, 3:41 pm • 3 0 • view
It’s going to be lovely when Scutari’s STAY NJ washes away all the improvements to Nj’s credit rating made under the Murphy administration.
aug 27, 2025, 3:09 pm • 2 0 • view
*and* forces harsh austerity for no good reason
aug 27, 2025, 3:19 pm • 1 0 • view
2029 gov is probably going to be a disaster
aug 27, 2025, 6:09 am • 1 0 • view
Yeah there’s just way too much going against Dems in 2029 I don’t see how we don’t get like Gov. Kean Jr. outside of the Big 3 actually becoming good over the next term
aug 27, 2025, 3:52 pm • 1 0 • view
Honestly our current party system might not be intact in 2029.
aug 27, 2025, 3:54 pm • 1 0 • view
How so? The biggest threat to our current system will likely be a bunch of reformers launching an all out assault on the machines given how weak they are
aug 27, 2025, 3:55 pm • 1 0 • view
If National Dems go down in flames and a new opposition emerges Mikie’s biggest challenger might be to her left.
aug 27, 2025, 3:58 pm • 1 0 • view
I think that will rely more on progressive successfully tea partying a lot of the machine in 2027. If they do, we’re likely to see a leftward challenger of Mikie which may end in a successful primary or a more liberal Mikie
aug 27, 2025, 4:01 pm • 1 0 • view
this prediction seems totally plausible in every way.
aug 27, 2025, 3:06 pm • 6 0 • view
I'm not a fan!
aug 27, 2025, 3:20 pm • 3 0 • view
I am decidedly not a fan but a lot of wine-moms rate her. And wine-moms are kinda good and important!
aug 27, 2025, 3:39 pm • 3 0 • view
true! unfortunately like everyone but the biggest of sickos they aren't plugged in to how awful Trenton is so they don't know why there's reason to worry about Mikie
aug 27, 2025, 4:33 pm • 1 0 • view
You could probably make a case that Mikie is sufficiently removed from 'Trenton' that she might be able to flex her mandate independently? (🤔)
aug 27, 2025, 4:37 pm • 0 0 • view
Couldn’t you have made the same case about Murphy?
aug 27, 2025, 4:48 pm • 0 0 • view
Very much so, and I am probably sticking my neck out here, but Murphy has been quite independent of the Trenton Democratic swamp? I think legislative Democrats actually kinda hate him and he does not share their priorities.
aug 27, 2025, 4:52 pm • 1 0 • view
I don’t know enough about Murphy to weigh in too much but he barely won reelection and it seems to have been his own fault for doing so by not keeping the schools open…
aug 27, 2025, 4:54 pm • 0 0 • view
But I guess that’s is orthogonal to your point…
aug 27, 2025, 4:55 pm • 0 0 • view
I mean, with Murphy, you could say "he barely won reelection" or you could say "he became the first Democratic governor of New Jersey in over 40 years to win reelection" and then use the framing of your choice to make whatever point you are trying to make...
aug 27, 2025, 4:58 pm • 0 0 • view