Here's 500 days of wastewater (black) and hospitalisation (other colours) NZ covid indicators, baselined against the average level of each indicator July 2023- June 2024. While this wave's wastewater has nearly reached the average level of a year ago, hospitalisations have not followed suit
Testing wastewater has been limited to a few major centres, yes???
Yes, so it might well flow out from cities to lower daily contact rural locations over time (so they haven't been through it), but looking at the DHB level hospitalisation data, which can be matched to the wastewater major city within some areas, there is no dramatic rise in the per covid case risk
Thank you.
p.s. Here's the wastewater data. There is 8 to 10 times the covid readings than there were during the all time low in April, so I have adjusted my behaviour a bit as I would prefer to continue not to catch covid, but that 8 to 10 times is about as common as it was a year ago, & no more risky outcome
1) a lagging indicator, and 2) hospitals aren’t testing as much this year, either ($$$)
the responses are 2) at this point lagging should be showing up. 3) SARI admissions still reasonably well tested for the standard panel of RSV, influenza, covid. Not shown on that graph, but the sentinel hospital SARI detailed breakdown is mostly influenza/RSV/ rhinovirus ATM (covid lower...
GP Dr Alan Moffitt in RNZ interview 6th June said Auckland hospitals are not testing for COVID.
www.rnz.co.nz/national/pro...
In that interview he did say if you front up to the emergency department. This is not the same thing as the survellience program testing people who have been admitted as SARI cases in the sentinel hos[ota; (the above data which is the same sample as past years)
Thank you, I thought they were separate sentences. Overall though didn’t it seem quite casual compared to other messaging/media from the past days?
... I wouldn't be quite as confident about #3 getting that standard panel, anymore. I've been informed we blew out our testing budget last winter – there could be changes or information to which I'm not aware, but coverage is likely less robust. Overall SARI may be our surrogate, now.
I accept there are funding issues nationwide, but I have been keeping a pretty close eye on the sentinel hospital tests conducted because of it. Start of June 2024, SARI admissions 90 Flu/RSV/Covid panels 89 Start of June 2025, SARI admissions 86 Flu/RSV/Covid panels 82
I do feel like the presentations are outpacing the testing results — the lab reports don’t have much of a bump yet.
Now you’re talking my kind of data Ryan, literally. I can have a look next week if it helps
Here is both Christchurch covid wastewater levels (red line) [source:ESR] and Canterbury DHB in hospital at midnight with a covid diagnosis - mostly SARI cases (purple dots) [source, MoH covid GitHub repo], scaled to total ILI ED attendances for March & April 2023 (as community wastewater similar)
Well, then – perhaps not necessarily outpacing, but roughly matching! Feels like the tidal wave is just about to hit ...
This is what Christchurch covid wastewater levels look like, scaled to match March & April 2023 ILI presentation levels (which is around the same level current wastewater is at).
Fair enough - surveillance must be separate from clinical operations.
But because the SHIVERS project (southern hemisphere influenza vaccine effectiveness, research & surveillance) is at least in part CDC funded, I do wonder if someday some of the monitoring will just stop (the sentinel hospital testing and the Wellkiwis community cohort study have been connected)
...than last June, other viruses looking higher). 4) Though IMO with overall covid levels still historically low (even if high for the last few months) hospitalisation levels hinge a lot on frequency of outbreaks in care locations etc, which adds noise to the base level.