RE Nate Silver you have to figure in a longtime fascination (at best) with gambling, driven over the edge by the availaibility, legality, and variety of gambling now available.

The GOP accidentally banning semi-professional poker play has started to radicalize Nate as apparently that was his line.

homeboy thinks he’s too good to cheat on his taxes, apparently

I don't think it's clear that it was X did Silver in. There were more factors for him.

I agree Nate silver is terrible. He didn't support trump for president and actually voted for Harris over trump, even though Harris supports genocide while trump fights for peace

I hate nate silver. he said Hillary would win and she lost. he is why trump won. he also said he has never voted for a democrat ever and hopes trump becomes a dictator so he crushes the the gays and jews and college educated living in cities

You really don't understand probabilities. He gave Trump 30% where comparable sites had <1%. Why? Because he understood that polling error is correlated between similar states. Giving something a 70% chance isn't saying it will happen. Regardless, attributing Trump's win to him is ridiculous.

yes I do trump won so he should have said Hillary had a 30% chance of winning. if there is a 50% chance of rain on consecutive days that means there is a 100% chance of it raining across both days. Same applies to his 30% trump prediction

Is this parody of probability knowledge? It has to be, no one could be this wrong.

again please explain your defence of the far right Nate silver. he is not an ally and hates the left

I do not think you are a real person.

OMG Horrified Lydia why are you defending Nate Silver??? He is evil anti trumper. what is wrong with you?

No it was definitely Twitter. Silver's ego has never recovered from being mecilessly mocked for his armchair virology during COVID

Just kills me that he knew better and yet still couldn't help himself

sophomoric 🤮 the word is overused enough, but to use it like that.. eugh

It's weirdly self-deprecating, but then we know he goes on to refuse the self-knowledge he briefly attained.

Amazing

That's incredible lol

I’ve never seen that before!

It's permanently seared into my memory

noah has factors as well, like both a physics degree and an economics degree.

Oh don't come for overeducated folks!

i would never! i have too many degrees myself (history, medieval history & latin, computing) but the combination of physics and economics is something you're going to struggle to get back from

Yeah like his very obvious and crippling gambling addiction. Lot going on over there, though whatever variety of funcooker X is now is making it worse!

him being on twatter during the pandemic finished him off.

May I toss Matt Yglesias into contention?

Silver was toast by mid-2021.

Yeah, COVID broke Nate. 2024 broke Noah.

He had flashes of normalcy through 2022, but was full-bore broken most of the time by then.

The still occasionally say useful things in their expert areas. Like, Noah is correct about blanket tariffs being bad for the economy. But then he reveals himself to be a creep about immigrants.

Yeah, but by now I know equivalent experts to look for when in need of their brand of expertise.

It’s no loss, if they are gonna engage in shitty stuff, BUT it is the end of an era, as it is, the blog era, not to be able to turn to them.

Right. You’ve got Dean Baker, Justin Wolfers, Mark Zandi, tons of reliable economic pundits who don’t just randomly post racist bullshit. Heather Long and Catherine Rampell never post anti-immigrant xenophobia.

Don’t forget DeLong, who manages to be a blogger, still, above all else he’s responsible for.