3/6 The Economic Time Bomb Russia’s economy is flatlining. Recent figures show oil & gas revenues tanking, foreign reserves haemorrhaging, and the Kremlin budget far more precarious than they admit. War spending keeps the lights on short-term, but long-term it’s eating their future alive.
I support Ukraine and oppose Putin, but here you're using lazy language instead of careful thought. To say that the economy is "flatlining" and that his dream is "collapsing" uses weasel words. People who oppose Putin, rightly, have been talking, wrongly, about flatlining and collapse since the
second day of the 2022 invasion. While this might be reassuring in the short run, it doesn't really help us understand what's going on, nor does it help us oppose Putin. These oft-repeated claims of imminent and total collapse are a record of false negatives. You need to do better.
Don't get me wrong. I absolutely support your efforts in promoting the cause of an independent Democratic Ukraine and also in opposing Putin. But talk about how Putin is going to fall apart very soon doesn't really help us understand what's going on nor does it help us oppose him.
4/6 Alaska and Witkoff’s “Misunderstanding” The Alaska meeting may never have been Plan A for Moscow. Reports suggest it was partly arranged through Steve Witkoff’s misread of Russian demands, offering Putin a platform he didn’t even expect. Once on the table, the Kremlin saw the PR win.
5/6 Putin’s Possible Pivot With the economy buckling and his military bogged down, Putin may be forced to settle for far less than his grand ambitions, not out of goodwill, but necessity. Any “deal” now would be about locking in current gains, freezing the lines, and buying time to rebuild.
6/6 Why This Matters Now If Alaska gives Putin even a partial win, without forcing him to return occupied land, it rewards invasion, legitimises an ICC-wanted war criminal, and proves that military failure can still be spun into political success. THAT’S THE REAL DANGER.
After the lessons learned from WW2 it would be insanity to reward russian aggression.
Thank you America 👍🏻.
Said slightly differently: it blesses a new form of imperialism, that looks much like the old form (before the current "rules based order", that Russia isn't abiding by anyways). Both of these petty tyrants are blustering as an attempt to distract from their failings and outright crimes.
And while Trump is sitting on a powder keg, Putin knows there's only one fate for him if he loses the war: a long walk off a tall building, a polonium tea, etc.
Any concessions Putin makes are out of desperation, not a desire for peace, and should thus be laughed out of the room. The longer UKR waits, the stronger its position gets. Russia will be crushed the boring EU way: with the chequebook. Or more specifically, with Russian cheques bouncing.
...and Ukraine stands to lose in Alaska because Putin is dealing with Trump who is already biased against Ukraine and may be a Russian asset or just has dementia. Trump doesn't seem to understand that Russia attacked Ukraine.