I think people attributed too much effectiveness into the 'Kamala is for they/them' ads just because Trump won. His campaign was absolutely shit and the Dems were actually better, but the incumbent was fucked in 2024 no matter what.

Yes, this is spot on and very important. Harris significantly outperformed last year's global anti-liberal-incumbent wave. The more time and resources her campaign spent in a state, the better she did there compared to the national Trump swing!

I wouldn't even call it necessarily even an 'anti-liberal' wave, where right wingers were the incumbents they also got tossed out or had their majorities severely reduced (UK, India)

Great point, which illustrates even more strongly that her losing wasn't about her running a bad campaign or her platform being unpopular. It was, very unfortunately for all of us, a Vibes Moment.

also think it is worth bearing in mind that this is after literal years of a trans panic that has used sports as a focal point because anti-trans activists and their media sympathizers thought it might offer a toehold

Honestly I don't find it even a little dismaying This says to me trans rights are normatively durable and the only reason that people are flexing on the sports issue (which is not good!) is because Democrats retreated from it rather than actively counter message

Democrats retreated from the sports issue because the anti-position has Assad level numbers in polling, including majority opposition within the Democratic party. The sports issue began severely undermining support for wider trans rights years ago.

You can counter-message a 40-60 issue. You can't counter message a 20-80 issue and trying to do so is much more likely to backfire on everything else than it is to actually change minds.

If this is their current high water mark after everything they've done to try to get rid of us, we can reclaim ground quickly if we are willing to fight hard and smart

The sports issue makes such intuitive sense to people who know nothing about trans people that it’s hard to counter without getting into the weeds a little. The average American is SO much more scientifically illiterate than they were 20 years ago. It’s a tough nut to crack, sigh.

I understand the impulse to believe that but I think it can be handled as easily as positive photo images of trans people and the words: HORMONES WORK. The people that will ask more questions than that can find the answers and there can be more arms to that campaign but I think it's easy to win

This messaging would do triple duty by letting them see us be happy and helping *us* see images of ourselves thriving

I think the main thing that will do it is their teammates standing up for them. The media does not let the general public know about all the kids that walk out of school in response to this shit.

there are worse ways for these polls to break

I think the sports panic is dumb but I get why normies think it

It’s not like my mom is passionate about it but she’s against it. Fine with trans ppl but sports is too far. I think she’ll get over it eventually.

It just goes back to my lifelong conviction that we should abolish sports entirely.

I think it’s dumb, but I get why *some* people who are supportive of trans rights stop at sports. Think less ‘fear’ & more ‘fair.’ They might have no fear of trans women in bathrooms, but still have a hard time believing there’s not an advantage. If limited to that, there is much room to build on.

you can cynically triangulate by conceding people's "worries" but counter with how no one should trust a Republican to check a child's genitals.

If you're a cynical Dem candidate ofc