Not yet but there are warnings of a severe downturn

I *think* what she’s trying to say (albeit kinda clunkily) is that the average person in 2025 is less able to withstand a potential economic crash than their 2007 counterpart.

Yep. If housing is any indicator you’re going to see droves of homeless

Which is wrong.

Yet the point is that the crash we’re likely to endure will probably be measurably worse, and certainly housing ain’t cheaper now versus then.

I mean the answer is that in 2007 we didn’t universally have little boxes in our pockets that were programmed by the smartest people in the world that our lives suck because it increases click through rates on Toyota Corolla ads by .2%

Now, that's unfair; only some of it is for naked greed. There's other stuff making us miserable too, like calculated political disinfo campaigns, and ideologically motivated body image toxicity. I know it can all feel the same, but there's a whole diverse cornucopia of shit out there!

Yeah I think there’s something to that. Coming into 2007 the entire economy was high on its own supply. Economically this won’t be as bad as 07 but people might hate it more.

Young adults are hideously unaware of the past doesn’t really require a phone but the phone is why I see their dumb takes

One of the most deleterious effects of the smartphone era is how it provided a way for the 24-hour news cycle (already deleterious in and of itself) to be beamed into human minds with minimal difficulty

Presentism is a helluva drug.

nah, they're actually correct as far as their country is concerned bsky.app/profile/ausi...

Fair!

Zoomers wanna be Millennials so bad

2025 is worse than 2007. The brunt of the financial collapse didn't occur until September 2008. For most people, the trouble in 2007 was limited to subprime loans. Most people didn't have those and had no knowledge of derivatives. Bad as he was, Bush left institutions in place. Trump hasn't.

I'm not saying these people are all children, but you know, they lack perspective.

or, well, you lack international perspective too because it's absolutely true in the OOP's country bsky.app/profile/ausi...

In fairness, many of the people saying this were in kindergarten in 2007.

lunchtime was regular and crackers abundant

I dunno, if this is a "now is worse than 2007-8" take, I absolutely have to agree with them. They are right that a whole ton of wealth was available to be burned off in 2007 that does not exist now. People underestimate how long term damaging the financial crisis was, such that normal people 1/

Are still worse off now than they were before the crash in 2007.

People have forgotten just how bad it was. At the same time, combined with the tea party, and, the wrong lessons being learned with inflation and govt rescue after Covid, and continues attacks on theFed , I fear if we had another recession, it could be just as bad if not worse than 2007

It’s not great that U3 trutherism has been back since late last year because no one knows how stats are compiled

The internet, which simultaneously provides you with all the information necessary, also just fries your brain with all that information.

Who knew that the real "The King in Yellow" would be the internet all along?

I think they're saying that the pre-crash situation is worse for the 2025 Trump-induced crash, that has either recently started or is about to start, than it was for the 2007 crash. As if the Biden post-Covid economic situation was markedly worse than the Dubya post-Katrina situation.

For some people, it may even be true, but for most people, no, I think the Biden recovery from the Covid Crash was better than the limping Bush recovery from the Dotcom bubble bursting and the post-9/11 recession. But we've got less of a safety net or social contract to protect us this time.

Well, this disaster isn't here yet, it's like 2006 or 2007, you can see the signs but Bear Stearns hasn't imploded yet, that's later. It's probably going to be worse, they've been up to "creative" things with debt again, and our government response will be markedly worse.

In some ways 2025 is worse, like, politically our President sucks the worst kind of shit and we still have three more years or to find out if JD Vance can convince a single person in the world to respect him. But economically? Things are fine!

bsky.app/profile/noct...

Do Brits not have food?

They don’t have presidents, especially American ones.

Ok, so is your complaint that it doesn't politically suck in the UK? I don't understand why you've decided to pedant check this post.

Wait till they remember 2009

I think it obviously is in some key ways, for instance in 2007 people didn't confuse their being depressed with the derivative of GDP

It's not worse until there's a side by side shot on cable news of the House voting down a bailout bill and the markets tanking. www.npr.org/2008/09/29/9...

The number of people I know who graduated in like 2008 and whose career options got utterly annihilated as a result was like…. Fuck there was so much of that.

My ex finished grad school in international relations in 2008, just a nightmare time to graduate. But that degree in DC in 2025 will mean she’s going to get a job at Starbucks in a month, Trump demolishing USAID has ended all career prospects for her in her field.

Broad pain is seen as worse than concentrated pain.

"Omelas, but from the Left"

Also, this is 90% job searching norms from '08 refusing to die, and making entry into the workforce a *miserable* process. Particularly in vibes-industries.

Yeah, hiring rates are the lowest they have been since 2013. Add in the how much online applications suck. It's really miserable recent grads (or anyone) looking for full time work rn.

You are way less likely to get laid off now than 08. The problem is that its also a giant pain in the ass to find a decent job too.

You aren't getting laid off. But you probably hate your boss, and getting a new job is insanely difficult. (And has been for a while).

Layoffs are definitely happening, but it's in gov't, gov't adjacent, and grant dependent sectors right now. More may happen later, but there are definitely some happening now.

It’s still too early to say, but we’re dealing with the second wave of inflation since COVID thanks to these harebrained tariffs which is making necessities even more expensive at the exact same time safety nets are being slashed. It’s not a good combination of self inflicted self owns.

Not yet… but I’m sure Trump and the Crypto Bros are still cooking up some financial hijinks that might get us closer.

It hasn't happened yet but I think there's a real risk of a collapse and if it does happen it will be much worse because all the safety nets have been torn up and thrown away.

the post-COVID recovery and pandemic response (in the form of CARES + IRA) was like, miles ahead of the Obama '08 response

But the vibes were just so much worse, and by vibes I mean Twitter specifically

It's hard to compare 'em. Both socioeconomic disasters, but they were so different in symptoms and structure! In both cases policy response was really unusually swift, and in both cases policy response had big problems - but very different problems in each case! Just...bad for social media limits!

Obama wasn't really allowed an 08 response. They did accuse him of TARP, though. He got 800B to work with. Trump got trillions handed to him for covid, and none of it went where it was supposed to go. You could tell -- Nobody had a job to go back to.

Obama was ELECTED in 2008.

That person has their dates shifted by one year, that's pretty weird tbh

I think you misunderstood them

2025 is a set up for a permanent and irrecoverable economic outcome unlike 2007. 2025 will be remembered as terminal.

The world financial system almost completely seized up in 2007. We may yet get a pretty bad recession but it won't be existential like 2007.

One never knows about these things. The treasury market was in deep shit in April. A few wrong turns, a couple of fumbled reactions, and many bets are off.

the OOP is British so doesn't deserve this hard of a dunk, post-Brexit Britain absolutely is worse off than in 2007

We dont have $5 sandwiches marketed by a pedophile now though

Aren't they talking about now being a worse baseline to *begin* a financial crash from than 2007? I think that's probably correct. If something on the scale of Lehman Bros happens next years, there's zero backstop. It's all coming down.

The Venn diagram of the set of burrito taxi people and the set of “2025 is worse than 2007” (really, 2008*) people would be interesting. *The recession was dated to Dec 2007 and was housing market deteriorating, but things only went pear-shaped after Lehman.

Bear Stearns fell in March of '08 and meant a lot of my fellow '08 college grads did not get employment.

I guess these guys are doing the "recessions are better than inflation" stuff. Y'know, the ideas traditionally consider far-right plutocratic

I know. They fail left of center 101.

I forget the exact timing, but I think “The Excitement” started in Canadian asset backed commercial paper a bit earlier than that. Whee.

“Zoomers” caught on because somehow we knew it’d be more -oomer than z-.

Year ain't over yet.

And this hasn't really started. Inertia is keeping things together, but only for so long.

I think it’s fair to say that the preceding conditions were better in 2007 than they are now and IF there were a real market crash it would probably be more harmful now than it was then. The social safety net has been further gutted and the cost of living has continued to rise.

People are so deeply narcissistic and stupid it is genuinely distressing.

If the banks started falling next year, do you really think Trump will handle is better than Bush/Obama?

No

No I think the argument is that zoomers were not adults in 2007

Ok disregard, I understand that this was in reference to the OG QP.

I lived in Phoenix and worked across the street from Countrywide. In certain cities it was literally the Walking Dead. Mesa mall every single store was closed. 6 months+ without a job with a no notice firing Came back to Louisiana and got a job within 2 weeks and noone knew anything was going on

It’s going to be worse but it’s not here yet. It’s only august.

That post would have made more sense if you swapped the years, and even then