it is sort of baffling to see people argue that just because they don't see empty shelves, the tariffs aren't that bad once again I am cursed with the fact that no one seems to understands operations research
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My stepdad works in logistics for a shipping company that unloads and distributes goods coming in from Asian and he has been stressed out about work for months now. People don’t realize how long it takes these things to work their way through the supply chain, it hasn’t even started yet.
aug 23, 2025, 2:11 am • 25 0 • view
I don’t think we’re gonna see empty shelves, just that the things on them are gonna keep creeping ever higher, making the trip to the grocery store ever more painful. Some stuff will for sure disappear. The tariffs are bad but it’s the fucking uncertainty that’s real bad.
aug 23, 2025, 1:41 am • 25 0 • view
What’s the actual tariff rate on any given item? Who knows! And who knows what it’s gonna be on any given month?
aug 23, 2025, 1:42 am • 21 0 • view
Nearly all MAGA are feeble minded… even when the tariffs eventually bite hard, they’ll eat up whatever nonsensical excuse Dear Leader feeds them. Thanks, Obama?
aug 23, 2025, 1:43 am • 8 0 • view
I think it'll be us, Teh Gays.
aug 23, 2025, 5:06 am • 2 0 • view
That's not happening..people see when they go to check out..money doesn't go as far..they are holding off from buying extra or stuff they don't need now.
aug 23, 2025, 8:49 am • 0 0 • view
They're going to see more clearly soon.
aug 23, 2025, 12:14 pm • 0 0 • view
In normal markets with advanced supply chains, you don't get empty shelves, you get higher prices and substitute lower quality goods
aug 23, 2025, 1:01 pm • 53 1 • view
The biggest two supply chain shocks in living memory were (a) covid and (b) Russia decoupling from the global economy in 2022 and, other than very briefly and initially, the results were not empty shelves. The result was a massive inflation shock
aug 23, 2025, 1:04 pm • 43 0 • view
Also, fwiw, I see empty shelves a LOT as I travel around the country. Shelves aren't empty in rich white neighborhoods, but get out into rural areas or into poorer neighborhoods and there are lots of empty shelves.
aug 23, 2025, 5:52 pm • 3 0 • view
As if normal people aren’t doing the utmost to keep everything working despite the country sliding into Trump’s clogged toilet
aug 23, 2025, 1:59 am • 16 0 • view
I'm literally watching different things disappear from the shelves every time I go to the store. It really is happening. I'm also seeing the streets and stores looking like a ghost town. I'm especially not seeing the elderly shopping much anymore. When we talk to them, they're frightened.
aug 23, 2025, 5:31 am • 2 0 • view
Oooh new concept to google
aug 23, 2025, 4:49 pm • 0 0 • view
The higher prices must not be enough of a red herring.
aug 23, 2025, 1:59 am • 0 0 • view
The supply chain has been "pumping" as suppliers, shippers, and importers dodge the moving tariffs. That's already costing money. And at some point the pump is going to break something.
aug 23, 2025, 2:07 am • 7 0 • view
It's going to get worse before it gets better. Sadly we're stuck with a large population of stupid people that need to find out before they change their ways. The sad part being that WE have to suffer along with them.
aug 23, 2025, 7:21 am • 0 0 • view
the tariffs really *aren't* as bad as we expected them to be, or as Trump wanted them to be. Trump has stumbled into a more sustainable tariffs policy just as he has stumbled into so many things. The fact that nobody really wants the tariffs regime we have might not stop it from persisting
aug 23, 2025, 1:42 am • 53 2 • view
We all have to wait until q4 to conclude anything that drastic
aug 23, 2025, 2:55 am • 8 0 • view
Yes, at this point I hesitate to conclude *anything*
aug 23, 2025, 3:08 am • 7 0 • view
It seems more to me like the companies were more willing to lose some margin than I thought, because every day the Street and similar places keep saying Trump will chicken out (even tho on net he only does the opposite on tariffs). But they're starting to pass it through and will continue to do so
aug 23, 2025, 12:56 pm • 2 0 • view
It's still a useless drag on the economy, at a time when the economy doesn't seem like it needs a sea anchor. Lots of bad econ news to point at right now. But they've avoided the worst of what they courted.
aug 23, 2025, 1:43 am • 11 0 • view
Tbh I think it hasn't gotten bad because everyone did rightfully buy up so much stock that they still haven't burned through all of it
aug 23, 2025, 1:44 am • 69 0 • view
It wasn't catastrophic enough to crash the economy on its own, but it apparently (per Powell) did cause a significant number of layoffs, which, combined with a weakening dollar and reduced investor confidence due to BLS chicanery is, indeed, probably a stagflation cocktail
aug 23, 2025, 2:15 am • 8 0 • view
And the shelves don’t go bare, if consumers can no longer afford to buy the products.
aug 23, 2025, 12:10 pm • 2 0 • view
I'm still working though the Colombian coffee I panic bought.
aug 23, 2025, 2:02 am • 1 0 • view
My work typically orders a stock of around 10k of an item in June. Due to the price fluctuations over the uncertainty, I think we did 3-4k of an item this year and made it work. There’s a lot of American companies like that who are taking a lot of hits already
aug 23, 2025, 1:46 am • 39 1 • view
That. But also Trump has cut back some. I wonder if Gavin Newsom would keep the tariffs?
aug 23, 2025, 1:45 am • 1 0 • view
We're sitting on tons. Like almost a damned years worth.
aug 23, 2025, 7:45 pm • 0 0 • view
Meanwhile my company has seen a 20% drop in sales across the board due to lower trade volumes, and the projections for next month are dismal (usually September has one of the highest trade volumes from Asia). International peak ain’t gonna peak this year, so hope everyone is buying Xmas presents now
aug 23, 2025, 3:37 am • 11 0 • view
Yeah, there's this weird sense that because the bond vigilantes relented & countries came to the table, the tariffs are succeeding somewhat. There's still years of this to come, & the longer they persist, the more companies start doing the hard things to cope, & the harder it is to change course
aug 23, 2025, 3:42 am • 7 0 • view
The Smart Guys are also all making the entirely unfounded assumption that there can be only one round of unwritten, unilaterally extorted arrangements based on lies.
aug 23, 2025, 3:44 am • 9 0 • view
I’ve been in this industry for almost 20 years. 2nd job out of college, and just sort of stayed in shipping. First time I’ve seen some people scared shitless, because no one knows what the fucks going on in Trump’s head, least of all the horse.
aug 23, 2025, 3:41 am • 4 0 • view
Instead of touching an already hot stove, America's path will be to place its hand on the stove while it slowly heats up
aug 23, 2025, 1:46 am • 8 0 • view
Covid alone proved people have no clue how supply chains work. This is just an infinitely stupider version of that in many ways, it feels like.
aug 23, 2025, 2:08 am • 19 0 • view
aug 23, 2025, 1:39 pm • 1 0 • view
When brexit happened, we didn't see immediate problems - the empty shelves, queues at airports and ports and the destruction of our economy came later.
aug 23, 2025, 1:04 pm • 1 0 • view
Many big companies are happy to temporarily eat the tariffs at first, because they have the cash and investors won't care about a single-quarter hit if they gain market share before he walks everything back. They won't do this forever, and if things start to look permanent they'll pass them on.
aug 23, 2025, 2:08 am • 88 7 • view
Taxing corporate profits of low-margin business and giving the extra revenue to rich people via tax cuts is still GDP negative, but much less so than it will be once tariffs hit poorer consumers directly.
aug 23, 2025, 2:17 am • 57 3 • view
That’s because we haven’t felt the full effect of the tariffs yet. Prices will be higher and we’ll probably have less variety. People are going to get tired of that quick.
aug 24, 2025, 12:25 am • 0 0 • view
Oh, sure, small business owners and people in logistics are saying "this is so fucked" but I have not personally observed a large disruption in my life, so it's not real. Q.E.D.
aug 23, 2025, 1:52 am • 120 6 • view
Just had my first shipment from a US supplier of goods that were not on an existing DDP contract and not covered by CUSMA, so had the 35% retaliatory rate applied and it was deeply unpleasant. Unfortunately there is only one manufacturer of this speciality, critical item and they’re in California
aug 23, 2025, 2:29 am • 21 1 • view
The actual, serious, real answer from the GOP is that the one California manufacturer should just press the "more" button on the widget machine and then everything will be fine. Because yeah sure, that's how specialty manufacturing works.
aug 23, 2025, 3:04 am • 35 0 • view
They continuously do this with chips. It turns out it’s really hard to do. And that basically just two companies make the most modern chips.
aug 23, 2025, 1:23 pm • 2 0 • view
What’s actually happening is a UK manufacturer is now shopping around engineering samples of an equivalent product to interested customers, and even at 10% higher base cost is worth us to switch. And we will :/ Unfortunate, I like the California team they’ve always been great to us.
aug 23, 2025, 2:45 pm • 4 0 • view
"As long as there is cold beer at the bar (or gas station) all is well," is a real vibe.
aug 23, 2025, 4:42 am • 2 0 • view
No one who satisfies the latter description know the importance of the de minimis exception to small businesses. And it doesn’t even hit officially until next week
aug 23, 2025, 3:11 am • 2 1 • view
it's harder to see a quiet hollowing out than open drama most of what i've noticed from tariffs has been customs getting extra aggressive with my packages, the bastards.
aug 23, 2025, 1:41 am • 21 1 • view
aggressive with my package is a glemm greemwald studios film, no?
aug 23, 2025, 1:39 pm • 0 0 • view
Not to mention full shelves in a retail setting means few consumers
aug 23, 2025, 6:35 am • 1 0 • view
What I've noticed is a pinch on very small businesses that deal with imports. A couple small music manufacturers shut down this week. One making specialized electronics in the US, basically couldn't source components consistently. The other, a guitar strap company in canada that mostly sold to US
aug 23, 2025, 2:02 am • 15 0 • view
Basically, strap company said tariffs, paperwork, and unpredictability made it not worth it, and he was just shutting down. Both were very small businesses (maybe just one person, or at most a handful of employees) but there are a lot of niche businesses like this
aug 23, 2025, 2:03 am • 10 0 • view
I've been getting emails this whole month about tariff price hikes from essentially every company I've ever ordered online from
aug 23, 2025, 1:49 am • 22 0 • view
I'm an expert in my areas, IT and aviation. When I see experts in other areas , it's not that simple... I tend to agree, because they know best and life is not black and white and simple.. Its people who are expert in NO area become the arm chair experts
aug 23, 2025, 1:38 pm • 0 0 • view
If it helps, have definitely noticed a food price spike in the last ~month.
aug 23, 2025, 2:45 am • 3 0 • view
All the backpedalling has given people a false impression of crying wolf. For months he'd announce a terrible thing, everyone would say "that's really bad," and he'd chicken out. If you weren't paying attention it was easy to miss the backing down so it just looked like announcement→freakout→nothing
aug 23, 2025, 3:23 am • 3 0 • view
People take their lives for granted and don't want to know how things work.
aug 23, 2025, 1:45 am • 5 0 • view
Taking preventative action is fucking ass Now doing shit once it's too late to do shit? Fuck yeah, that's the shit
aug 23, 2025, 9:57 am • 1 0 • view
Having this debate with husband. Like no, no I don’t want to make our musty dank basement CRAWLING with spider crickets habitable. But worst case, I’d rather chill in there bug and killer chemicals free than not have that option.
aug 23, 2025, 4:53 pm • 0 0 • view