I don't know how to explain this to you but consumption and production functions exist in time. Do people think that tariffs are an immediate drag on current GDP instead of future production/consumption?
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Brexit still technically left GDP growth positive, but not even most leavers are pretending that growth is good
aug 23, 2025, 2:02 am • 7 1 • view
I just stopped eating, why am I not losing weight??
aug 23, 2025, 2:02 am • 3 0 • view
Esp. since last quarter’s GDP growth was entirely because of imports spiking (I wonder why (/s)). Meanwhile, corps have also been largely eating tariff costs as of now, something many are signalling that they want to stop doing.
aug 23, 2025, 2:31 am • 0 0 • view
Hard (foolish?) to make exact predictions on slapdash trade policy that changes on a weekly/monthly basis, but it being easy to forecast serious downward trends with the present conditions is the synthesis of all this, I suppose
aug 23, 2025, 2:31 am • 2 0 • view
Also worth noting (I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir here) GDP includes a term for exports-imports, so if we're importing less, it just goes up. I think GDP is probably the worst measure for understanding how an economy is functioning, but it looks good for a service economy like ours.
aug 23, 2025, 2:07 am • 1 0 • view
This is a common misconception - the “minus imports” is just a double-counting problem since imports show up in consumption but aren’t “produced” here. www.stlouisfed.org/publications...
aug 23, 2025, 2:16 am • 2 0 • view
I like how my feed is split between “it’s alllll over” and “it’s alllll over for Trump”
aug 23, 2025, 2:23 am • 3 1 • view