the deck was stacked well against her and i suspect that even in the counterfactual case she did win, her margins would be tight and she would be dealing with a GOP Senate regardless
Replies
Things Dems could have done: Sucked up to RFK Jr. enough to keep him onsides. Appointed someone other than Garland AG. Had Biden resign presidency well before he dropped out of the campaign.
aug 24, 2025, 7:23 pm • 1 0 • view
The campaign was too short for any “sister souljah” moments to be effective, but had she presented herself more moderately in 2019 it’s hard to argue that would have had no effect on her odds. A progressive voting record is not as consequential as branding.
aug 24, 2025, 6:57 pm • 7 0 • view
I think if she presents herself more moderately then it is unlikely that she would have ended up getting the VP spot
aug 24, 2025, 6:59 pm • 1 0 • view
I’m not sure who else could have gotten it. Coalition politics and her voting record still make her the natural choice when you’re running an old white guy at the top of the ticket.
aug 24, 2025, 7:04 pm • 1 0 • view
Yeah I have no clue who else would have made sense but I don’t think the version of Harris that tacks more moderate ends up with a profile that is running for president and getting VP consideration
aug 24, 2025, 7:08 pm • 1 0 • view
She’s accomplished and a black woman going for the presidency. The mood of the moment might have given her even more coverage had she taken a moderate tack when the progressives seemed in ascendancy.
aug 24, 2025, 7:12 pm • 1 0 • view
I think it may of improved her performance in the primary slightly but I think for coalition management purposes it might have taken her off the table as a VP choice. I don’t think Biden performs as well as he did in 2020 if Harris is perceived as more moderate
aug 24, 2025, 7:15 pm • 1 0 • view
The problem is then you wind up with so many confounding variables-the mood of the dem electorate, the real question of what the long-term results of BLM would be, Biden’s own tendency to see her as a threat, the Gaza War…
aug 24, 2025, 7:14 pm • 0 0 • view
well yeah but she was running as a Californian senator in 2019 during Trump I she is going to be well to the left of the average electorate
aug 24, 2025, 6:59 pm • 4 0 • view
I understand why she did what she did, my point is that if she had chosen to make an effort to signal moderation in her self-presentation, that would have been helpful to her chances. It’s not purely her race, gender, or origin, but a choice to tack progressive.
aug 24, 2025, 7:03 pm • 3 0 • view
This is one of those things where I think things get messy
aug 24, 2025, 6:59 pm • 0 0 • view
I think this is also part of why the campaign was timid about some of the policy proposals. I believe they operated the campaign and pitched the presidency as if it was already bound by a Republican controlled senate
aug 24, 2025, 6:46 pm • 10 1 • view
Which was so goddamn stupid. If they had pitched policy proposals and coordinated with the Senate and House candidates then we would have had a Democratic Trifecta again.
aug 24, 2025, 6:50 pm • 2 0 • view
there is a reason that the campaign opted for playing it safe and trying to max out efforts in swing states
aug 24, 2025, 6:46 pm • 8 0 • view
2024 was an anti-incumbent year globally
aug 24, 2025, 9:53 pm • 3 0 • view
The only hope you'd have, if you were an incumbent, would be to run the kind of campaign Mark Carney ran, which implicitly trashed theinlr predecessor…and I'm not sure that would have worked if Trump hadnt shot Canadian Conservatism in the head.
aug 25, 2025, 12:11 am • 4 0 • view