imo a lot of it comes down to the fact that there is going to be a lot of uncertainty and litigation about this, so no major market decline until Fed independence is truly cooked
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Ironically by then it’ll be way too late lol.
aug 26, 2025, 1:56 am • 0 0 • view
Also she’s refusing to leave and is fighting the “dismissal”
aug 26, 2025, 5:03 am • 0 0 • view
Every major market investor is cracking open an entire crate of Zyns just to get though the month.
aug 26, 2025, 1:43 am • 0 0 • view
There's not going to be a major market decline then either
aug 26, 2025, 1:05 am • 67 0 • view
i think the most likely outcome is as various economic trends start going negative they start trying to pressure people to cook the books (and fail) but i suspect the economic slowdown is going to be a medium-run thing and be more like death by a thousand cuts (or tariffs)
aug 26, 2025, 1:07 am • 101 1 • view
the market is going to implode whenever the actual economy falls apart and not a second earlier. these are not smart people
aug 26, 2025, 1:11 am • 212 20 • view
We could be reduced to a bronze age social order, and the market wouldn't drop a full point.
aug 26, 2025, 1:17 am • 15 0 • view
With all the legalized rape such a change would entail, they'd have a full-on fucking rally if it happened.
aug 26, 2025, 1:21 am • 3 0 • view
Not to mention bringing de jure slavery back, rather than relying on prisons for slave labor.
aug 26, 2025, 1:23 am • 0 0 • view
The decline will not be in dollar terms. The dollar will be inflated to keep the market high, and those who hold dollar assets and make dollar incomes will suffer from real income declines, even as the stock market continues to rise until the AI bubble pops.
aug 26, 2025, 2:07 am • 2 0 • view
Too many money managers who feel pressured to chase returns.
aug 26, 2025, 1:13 am • 0 0 • view
Do you think it might turn out to genuinely just not hurt the markets that bad then? It feels hard to see how increasing their uncertainty could fail to! Unless I guess you mean traders turn out to feel as subjectively confident regardless of their information quality?
aug 26, 2025, 1:57 am • 2 0 • view
My model of this is that business and financial elites want more than anything for Trump to work out, enough to distort their nominal financial interests. A ‘Wages of Being Able to Harrass my Secretary’, if you may, that distorts market signals
aug 26, 2025, 3:47 am • 0 0 • view
The stock market runs on vibes; the bond markets on cold hard cash. The stock market may be ok; I doubt the bond markets will be.
aug 26, 2025, 1:13 am • 4 0 • view
It's too soon.
aug 26, 2025, 2:02 am • 1 0 • view
The market is basically 7 tech companies at this point. As long as they keep performing well, this thing is going to chug along. Once (if) the floor goes out on them, this goes fast
aug 26, 2025, 1:13 am • 27 0 • view
Fortunately Sam Altman is doing his best to destroy them
aug 26, 2025, 1:22 am • 28 0 • view
I guess bonds won't like inflation or a declining dollar?
aug 26, 2025, 1:48 am • 1 0 • view
ALL IN
aug 26, 2025, 1:13 am • 0 0 • view
I think that heavily depends on how insane his replacement Fed Governors are, and I expect they're gonna be really damn insane. If guys approximately as sensible as 'Big Balls' and Hegseth are in charge of the Fed, things will get really fucking bad really quickly.
aug 26, 2025, 1:10 am • 58 3 • view
That’s Federal Reserve Governor Larry “Cocaine” Kudlow to you, buster!
aug 26, 2025, 1:18 am • 3 0 • view
No, I think that 2nd comment is right. There's a sort of development from TACO into basically a kind of implicit gentleman's agreement (or whispered conspiracy) not to do any crisis-constituting acts because everyone has too much to lose. Everyone will go on pretending it's fine as long as possible
aug 26, 2025, 1:16 am • 49 3 • view
It took less than a year for inflation to skyrocket in Turkey after a similar central bank takeover by a similarly economically challenged despot.
aug 26, 2025, 1:18 am • 33 3 • view
Erdogan survived this because of the greatest TACO of all time and the fact that he had already purged the military and consolidated an authoritarian regime. Trump has not consolidated much at all yet.
aug 26, 2025, 1:19 am • 25 0 • view
Yeah they have a history of coups and an actual deep state that would step in.. and they even tried after he had consolidated a lot! Lived there in 2010 for a bit and yeah a lot of the western oriented secular ppl I knew did not see that going full on like it has, feels familiar
aug 26, 2025, 1:30 am • 6 0 • view
The day of the military coup has passed
aug 26, 2025, 1:31 am • 6 0 • view
The hat fetish is a nice homage to the old ways, though.
aug 26, 2025, 1:33 am • 0 0 • view
eh, this is too far. they will still always be the guys with the guns
aug 26, 2025, 1:38 am • 0 0 • view
I'd eagerly read a recent quantitative analysis of military coup activity over time. But nearly every book & article I read about democratic backsliding begins from the premise that military takeovers are not the vector of threat to democracy these days
aug 26, 2025, 1:41 am • 3 0 • view
I mean...the current Pentagon brass are mostly all pretty new to their jobs...
aug 26, 2025, 1:33 am • 3 0 • view
There’s what 2 members of the JCoS left?
aug 26, 2025, 1:35 am • 0 0 • view
It's not the top brass who he needs obeying orders to shoot protesters in the streets.
aug 26, 2025, 1:34 am • 10 0 • view
I'm not sure there's any degree of autocratic consolidation that guarantees that
aug 26, 2025, 1:38 am • 3 0 • view
And he's gonna damn well need it if he causes massive inflation by successfully breaking the independence of the Fed and printing a fuckton of money. Maduro only held on because the army *was* willing to commit atrocities against Venezuelan civilians for him.
aug 26, 2025, 1:39 am • 6 0 • view
It's wile e coyote, having run off the cliff but not yet looking down and triggering gravity.
aug 26, 2025, 1:54 am • 0 0 • view
Economic speedup + inflation. Trump wants lower rates, which are a stimulus
aug 26, 2025, 1:14 am • 0 0 • view
The market's normality bias, plus their sympathy to the Republican agenda, means that even as Trump rips up the floorboards they will keep assuming that things will work out and like Micawber "something will turn up".
aug 26, 2025, 1:27 am • 8 1 • view
Gotta touch the stove a few more times.
aug 26, 2025, 1:03 am • 13 0 • view
Fed independence affects the strength of the dollar. There won't be a major market decline. The reverse will be true. As the dollar weakens, assets(stocks, property, crypto) all increase in price proportional to value lost from dollar. We've seen that already this year as dollar weakened ~10%.
aug 26, 2025, 1:48 am • 3 0 • view
Glad I just put in the order to liquidate a mutual fund
aug 26, 2025, 1:14 am • 0 0 • view
That really comes down to whether Powell loses his shit, doesn't it? No, I'm not betting on that, but everyone has a limit...
aug 26, 2025, 3:12 am • 0 0 • view