In the latest poll by FindOutNow, 56% of under-30s said they would definitely vote. 🤔 The number is lower with More in Common - just 32% of 18-24s certain to vote (0-10 scale). But 41% responded 7 to 9 out of 10. Neither YouGov or Opinium reported likelihood to vote for most recent polls. Naughty!
Are Yougov using this anymore? I thought their turnout calculations come from the MRP now along with modelling the don't knows
Has anyone looked at the final polls last time that had willingness to vote and compared them to the turnout because my memory says that the polls were predicting a higher turnout than what transpired?
Polls are still recruiting far too many politically engaged respondents.
The population correlation between willingness to do a poll and likelihood to vote is so rock solid, it's close to impossible to deal with that problem in the sample itself. Ultimately, this is a weighting issue.
Does this partly explain Reform’s polling? Their supporters seem to be quite ‘engaged’, for want of a better word. I think it’s fair to say they are not the silent majority, judging by their… activities! They are made out to be of greater size than they are by the media too. Inflated, basically.