I research and write about politics, public policy, public opinion, polls, elections, geography, place, trust. I run on espresso.
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view profile on Bluesky 
Don't feel like doing a repost that puts the murder video on the timeline yet again but do feel like repeating the point that the president just straight-up assassinated 11 people for supposedly doing something that wouldn't be a death-penalty crime if they were caught and convicted
There are left-wing and liberal voters in the red wall.
Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters. This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens). Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour). These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
Labour's slump is significant. Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain. Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it
One of the big reasons that Labour is losing voters is economy insecurity: tinyurl.com/yywv2mbw However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.
🚨New Research 🚨 Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE. Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters. 🧵⬇️ tinyurl.com/3m62exph
Probably on account of your lack of patriotism!
Did they have flags?
I once went to watch Sutton United play a team local to me. They probably had 2-300 fans. Anyway, all of them were singing 'Brexit till I die' in 2019. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
I think people need to have seen something to give them reason to vote Labour before then... a lot will have made their mind up.
Indeed. Far too much worrying about Polanski, about Farage, about the Ipsos' issues index, about individual polling, and not enough on 'how can we deliver election-winning budgets and spending rounds in 2027-8 and 2028-9'.
Understandably and predictably, sometimes people choose the latter. And that means police have to intervene on lots of cases that could and should’ve been dealt with by moderators instead. Right wing people are getting arrested because Musk won’t enforce the law on X. And politicians won’t say that.
Politicians have been cowards on X and it is a disgrace.
Beyond that, X is allowed to continue operating entirely as normal, and UK politicians and government departments even normalise it and post there. Musk is playing a dangerous game: he’s outsourcing moderating his site to UK police, then condemning them for doing so. And we’re letting him.
this is right. Nobody, least of all anyone on the radical Left, should be pleased about the police - the *police* - having to sort this stuff out
Something is being completely missed in the Graham Linehan / broader UK ‘free speech’ row – and it’s that much of this is a direct consequence of Elon Musk no longer doing anything like what’s required to moderate X in line with UK and European law. 🧵
I was happy to be interviewed by @robynvinter.bsky.social for this @theguardian.com In Focus feature. It presents important, often overlooked, facts of the case while also reflecting on the bigger picture for media and politics. Have a read: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Things that are *really* unpopular with the median British voter: Internet harms Donald Trump Taking other countries' side over our own
Breathtaking.
I looked at the design weights and I think they are pretty similar numbers (just away from my computer now).
(Normally when I find something like this I spend about an hour worrying my code is wrong...)
Is random probability still 'the gold standard'? Discuss.
OK, so curious what @patricksturg.bsky.social thinks of this. In the raw F2F @britishelectionstudy.com from 2024, the raw (unweighted) vote share is 44% Labour, 20% Conservatives. This seems a big over-statement of the actual lead?
you'd think the governor of illinois basically going "we're being invaded by an authoritarian" would be something you'd see real easy on the front page of most everything an hour later
Bluesky has killed the outrage marketer grift. When everyone was confined to one place, plausible deniability existed. One could have happened across a comment from a usual target. But to carry comments from Bluesky over to Twitter to enrage one's audience makes one look like a stalker or weirdo.
This never gets old for me... it's a work of art.
'inside the red-faced hawk is a dove, with an almost physical horror of violence' (Ian Leslie on Donald Trump).
The governance of Britain is broken. Regulators have given up doing their jobs.
We didn't pass racial hatred laws in this country with a *these laws don't apply on Twitter* exemption for Musk's racist website There should be on camera hearings with X executives in parliament to set out what they will change - within days/weeks - to at least try to Make Twitter Lawful Again.
40% of Republicans think the COVID vaccine killed more people than the COVID virus. One in four believe that QAnon is real. No matter how far they radicalize, we are told over and over again that the people being rude to them are the problem.
“well this is certainly a bold departure from political norms!” as they are marched to the gulag
Just one more push Jonn, that's all it needs!
one of the most baffling things about all this is that I really can't understand why nobody in government seems to be saying "guys the strategy isn't working"
That Pritzker press conference was... surreal, and I think marks a significant moment of escalation in the constitutional omni-crisis. This was the governor of a state saying plainly the Union itself is being torn apart and his state is being militarily invaded by an authoritarian regime.
Siri, what do we call it when a state sends unwanted troops into another state without permission in order to seize and hold territory? Is there a word for that?!
Though war between California and Texas is a theme of Camper Van Beethoven's 2004 album New Roman Times, so @davidclowery.bsky.social got there first...
I did not have war between Chicago and Texas on my bingo card for 2025.
One of which being the minor detail that deploying them off federal property in the territory of one state under another state's authority without the permission of the government of the first state is quite literally an invasion
The president is sending the military to control American cities and if you're a reporter who's framing that illegal power grab as "pushing the boundaries of constitutionality" or "acting boldly to fight crime" or whatever, please go find another line of work where you won't get us all killed.
This is fascinating for highlighting how debunking a conspiracy theory can simply lead to some believers doubling down on it ('it's a cover up!' etc.) - disinformation and conspiracy beliefs are highly resilient.
In the coming days, we expect to see what's playing out in LA and DC happen in Chicago. These efforts are not about fighting crime or making communities safer. This is about Donald Trump testing his power and producing political drama to cover up his own corruption.
KASIE HUNT: Over the summer you said, “There’s no vaccine that’s safe and effective”. Do you still believe that? RFK JR: “I never said that.” KASIE HUNT: “Play the clip.” RFK JR (clip): “There’s no vaccine that is safe and effective.” (March 2024) ht: @cwebbonline.com
The black hole of disinformation and bullshit continues to suck in huge portions of the US. Rabies is spreading in the US. One reason is that many people are not vaccinating their dogs. Why? Many actually believe rabies vaccinations will make their dogs autistic.
If Joe Biden had a now near constant hand bruise--likely from some sort of regular IV--gave the press a flimsy excuse of it being "aspirin therapy" and from "shaking too many hands," and regular tried to hide it with makeup, I'm not sure the news media would be covering anything else.
In this study we find that distrusting citizens in particular tend to value the authenticity of politicians.
There are limits on how much politicians and parties can steal their opponents' clothes.
There really should be more discussion of authenticity and its importance in British politics right now...
At some point, you have to defend democracy, not just pivot to talking points, or there won't be fair future elections to win www.cnn.com/2025/08/31/p... What I told @ronbrownstein.bsky.social (joking/not joking):
The government's net approval rating has fallen to -59, Labour's lowest score to date Approve: 11% (-2 from 23-25 August) Disapprove: 70% (+3) Net: -59 (-5) yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Glasman is a desperate attention seeker.
Lord Glasman has thoughts on the Migrant Question
It's not political realignment, it's disinformation. It's also not ironic.
How Elon Musk Is Remaking Grok in His Image www.nytimes.com/2025/09/02/t...
BREAKING: Trump, Hegseth violated the Posse Comitatus Act with their troop deployment to Los Angeles, Judge Charles Breyer rules after trial. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
"Whatever the government has been doing in the last year in polling terms evidently has not worked. It does seem a lot of what they have been doing is attempting to compete with the parties of the right on their own terrain." @robfordmancs.bsky.social explains Labour's performance in the polls
When the grown-ups arrive, they can explain why briefing against people who know a lot of things about you and whom you've just fired is not actually very smart.
👀
The Trump administration used Benny Johnson's claims that his house was "burned to the ground" and that "people were murdered in my front yard" to justify its federal takeover of DC. @kenbensinger.bsky.social found out that Johnson made it all up. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/b...
There are a lot of people who could have prevented this, but chose not to. There are a lot of people who encouraged this, we all know who they are.
It seems pretty obvious that the complete absence of pushback against overt and nudge-nudge racism is impacting anti-racism norms that have been a foundation of social cohesion in Britain for decades.
There is a lot of annoying behavior on Bluesky. But there is a lot of annoying behavior on other social apps, too. And it's not just *who owns it* but also the service itself that gives Bluesky an advantage. There are better blocking tools here and more trustworthy management.
I worry that the decades it took to build anti-racism norms are unravelling quite quickly. Clearly the protests/social media drumbeat has created a permission structure that makes people think they can behave like this. Hard to see how it can be easily re-bottled.
Give RFK Jr time, he’s working on it.
a very high proportion of centrist punditry now just boils down to "progressives yell at me on the internet and i don't like it." you would think that getting paid millions of dollars per year would give you thicker skin
Bluesky is now among and often *the* highest referer to @motherjones.com. That’s traffic that has been additive. Only Twitter has dipped btw, the rest as fairly steady state (and instagram impressions and video views on all platforms up enormously.)
When Yorkshire cricket dismissed the p-word as banter, all hell broke loose in media+politics There is a p-word epidemic on X Yet the platform keeps that abuse online + now Elon Musk personally promotes a fascist who uses it incessantly Why is there infinite tolerance of lawless pro-racism X?
Remember Nate Silver refuses to use Bluesky and says you'd have to pay him over a million dollars to use it, so I'm going to suggest he not only doesn't know what "normal" people like, he doesn't even know what Bluesky is.... Signal and the noise guy is full of noise once again.
“Blueskyism” Rent free lmao
Washington's speculation about Trump's health is at a fever pitch. We've seen multiple reasons this summer to ask questions — and the media doesn't seem to care. What's really going on? www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/it-s-time-...
Politics today is less driven by ideological conviction and more by parties chasing votes based on a distorted picture of public opinion, one filtered through algorithms that amplify emotionally engaging content. This incentivises performance over substance and erodes democratic deliberation.
I bet the White House staff is busy setting up a bunch of cardboard cutouts in the Oval Office like in Home Alone
I've never seen such a disconnect between Dem elected/staff/consultants and actual Dem voters. The latter understand what's going on. The former are awash in right-wing brainrot, hence @schatz.bsky.social blaming COVID mitigation and BLM marches for the GOP's wanton destruction of public health.
![@EsotericCD It was in this moment that many of us hanging on to a thin sliver of trust in our institutions irrevocably lost faith in them. One of the most poisonous blows to public trust in living memory - worse than the effect of the Iraq War in many ways. RFK Jr is a direct result of this. Quote Steve Guest @SteveGuest · Aug 31 Politico 5 years ago: [screenshot of article falsely claiming public health officials lied about COVID measures then abandoned them for BLM protests] Views](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ddvus7otnqtlh7fdooxm6qat/bafkreihsypwydo5rcis7mc54cwct6h33l5co477nvh7g7hs7na2fz4jl3q@jpeg "Click to view full size")
short-form text social media has done some really terrible things to our political elite's ability to understand the world around them
Agreed, I nearly said terrified.
Give RFK Jr time, he’s working on it.
Someone please kill me right now.
Because they are panic struck and badly advised, is why.
This is why ‘staying to fight’ on X is a flawed argument. It’s a stacked deck, you can’t win.
Prima facie, Elon Musk appears to be manipulating X platform for specific political voices he supports (as well as using his own account to amplify the far right & furthest right). In particular the platform dynamic has shifted & is helping Tommy Robinson to be amplified more than Nigel Farage.
1/ Honestly this is as good an illustration about how staying primarily on X warps people. @schatz.bsky.social is among our most social media literate Senators. And I have no doubt some of his constituents voice this to him (tho' Hawaii bars...notoriously open air!). But...
Still on the EHCR are we? British politics is stuck in a post-Brexit doom loop, addicted to spectacle politics and unable to engage with its actual problems: the sclerotic post-GFC economy that has seen real wages stagnate and increasing inability of government to invest in public services.
Should have said 'I don't tend to post on subjects that draw hostility'....!
We do not fully grasp how damaging the SCOTUS’ presidential immunity decision was. What we know is it was a disaster and the huge damage it has caused is being compounded daily. That is because the result is a collaboration between corrupt justices, a supine Congress and a demented President.
To be fair, Supreme Court gets much of the credit for taking us here by ruling in Trump v USA against the USA — and the collaborationist Congress has never missed an opportunity to grease the wheels.
Probably it's just because I tend to post on subjects that draw hostility, but I think this place in general is calmer than Twitter was ten years ago - the nuclear block, detaching quote posts etc are pretty effective ways to kill conflict if you want to use them.
It's such a cesspit now I don't think it's even close - maybe at one point there was something to 'stay and fight', but that has long since passed.
I agree tbh - leaving X is really the most important thing. The reach via here is very limited (tbh, X doesn't have the reach of FB or Insta - all the more reason staying there is just wrong).
The reason they do that is because a lot of people are still there. The reason they are still there is because a lot of content providers [including some posting here] still post over there. The reason they still post over there is that they worry their stuff won't be seen or bought if they don't.
The fundamental difference is here you can actually block people who are rude/abusive, detach quote posts etc. There are some trolls and worse, but they can be quickly weeded out. Not moving here (or anywhere else - no reason it has to be here) indicates that you think X is an acceptable platform.
Everything is perfectly normal and fine. Nothing to see here.
The financial crisis theory of everything, by @samfr.bsky.social “Just as World War One led inexorably to the rise of extremist parties, the resurrection of trade barriers and tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, so has the financial crisis” open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
Thought experiment. What conceivable leverage could an organisation which controlled a single X account with over 5m followers, one of the most popular websites in the UK and a vast flow of news and information exert over the infosphere?
Those of us paying attention are in the real bubble
Sunder is right. It is a disgrace, and has been a disgrace ever since the 2024 riots.
Elon Musk is a radicalised extremist openly championing the most racist faction who would deport the Foreign Secretary, the Leader of the Opposition, the Justice Secretary and the last Prime Minister The govt silence about such a level of extremism is craven: infinite tolerance of racial hatred
Speaking as someone who studied and taught at US universities for over a decade, that KB has been telling this story for so long, without anyone in the UK previously questioning it is kind of amazing. It reflects total credulity about how the US works from the Spectator/Ashcroft etc.
Actively promoting a breakdown of law and order.
