I think the easier explanation--as painful as it is--can be found in stuff like this: Here's national exit polls of 18-29 yr olds from 2020 vs. 2024. Different polling firms of course, but if the Youth vote really did shift from 60/36 to 52/46, I think that alone would do it.
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Also: how many of them stayed home?
the other major factor appears to have been the Latino vote, which shifted HARD right this year according to exit polls. In 2020, CNN had Trump only receiving 32% of the Latino vote. That's game over.
As for the extremely long lines being reported across many states, keep in mind that in 2020 a LOT more people voted absentee/by mail in the states which don't have all-mail voting. Here in Michigan in particular, this was the first year we even *had* early in-person voting as an option.
Also, fewer polling places: www.route-fifty.com/management/2...
We had hundreds of thousands *fewer* absentee ballots sent in...but hundreds of thousands of people voted early in person instead. We even had people who *requested* an absentee ballot but then converted that to an early in-person vote instead to make sure we personally ran it thru the tabulator.
As for stuff like the drop boxes being set on fire in AZ, WA, OR etc...yes, that stuff happened which is horrific, but I believe that only impacted a few hundred ballots at most. Bomb threats scaring people off from voting? Sure...but that's voter *suppression*, not "hacking" or "stealing ballots."
All I'm saying is that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The various Secs of State (Dems in 5 of the 7 swing states, I believe) and their canvassing boards are doing their jobs right now, which I *think* include spot audits. If something fishy is up, I presume they'll say so.
I'll also add personal anecdote: I was a poll worker here in Michigan for both Early Voting and on Election Day. For Early Voting, our location processed 34 precincts across Bloomfield Twp, Birmingham and Southfield Twp. Here's the results from those precincts this year vs. 2020:
In other words, Harris did win those 34 precincts...but by a lot less than Biden did 4 years ago. This is also a perfect example of the absentee vs. in person factor. Here's how things broke out in 2020 vs. 2024 in the 34 precincts I was working with this year.
Thanks for making all this clear.
This is very interesting stuff.
On a related note: The Early Votes for these 34 precincts totaled 9,046 (plus a few more for Stein/RFK/etc). We had 9 days of early voting, so that's around 1,000/day. Here's the early votes per day for the first 7 days of early voting for the same precincts...7,114, or just over 1,000/day.
I can't speak for any other locations, but at ours, I worked side by side with both Dem & Republican poll workers 12-16 hours/day for 5 of those days. Every single ballot which was cast was legitimate, and to my knowledge no ballots "went astray." The numbers have to match at the & end of each day.
I’m no data expert but would be worth figuring out if there was anything close to the number of Trump undervotes in swing states in previous elections. If the answer is yes, would address concerns.
Even then, there's a whole bunch of measures taken by the Sec. of State & canvassing boards to make sure the results are legit. Here's how it works in Michigan: www.michigan.gov/sos/election...
Thank you so much for this. I also think not keeping Covid voting —in other words, ballots mailed to homes automatically & drop boxes everywhere, is absolutely essential to get more voting participation. You & I follow each other on Twitter. I am @bluenewjersey on Twitter 🙏
There was no cheating there was malpractice on the part of the media and the coms team at the Biden admin
Living among Latinos, I saw, first-hand, how sexist and racist they can be, yet latched onto the "cool" aspects of black culture without even trying to reconcile any of that internally. They loved Bush because he spoke Spanish (badly).
Sexism and anti-Black racism is rampant in both the Latine and AAPI communities and it has to be fixed.
I’ll work on the ⚪️ people. They are stuck there it seems. Couldn’t be more disgusted by my generation and census group.
I'm white and also a lesbian so I deserve to take a break. My LGBTQ+ demo came through this election.
Hello! I’m queer as a three dollar bill and have been fighting these people since 1989. Also very tired. Also proud of our community and deeply disappointed in my generation.
Same.
I'd kind of like to see a more refined breakdown by gender (but not really, since people voted to protect abortion rights but voted to reinstate the guy who put them in danger).