On a related note: The Early Votes for these 34 precincts totaled 9,046 (plus a few more for Stein/RFK/etc). We had 9 days of early voting, so that's around 1,000/day. Here's the early votes per day for the first 7 days of early voting for the same precincts...7,114, or just over 1,000/day.
I can't speak for any other locations, but at ours, I worked side by side with both Dem & Republican poll workers 12-16 hours/day for 5 of those days. Every single ballot which was cast was legitimate, and to my knowledge no ballots "went astray." The numbers have to match at the & end of each day.
I’m no data expert but would be worth figuring out if there was anything close to the number of Trump undervotes in swing states in previous elections. If the answer is yes, would address concerns.
Even then, there's a whole bunch of measures taken by the Sec. of State & canvassing boards to make sure the results are legit. Here's how it works in Michigan: www.michigan.gov/sos/election...
And yes, that includes risk-limiting audits, which draw and hand-tally a random sample of ballots to affirm the accuracy of vote-counting machines.
Here's more details on how election security is handled in Michigan: www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...
UPDATE: --Still about 8.2 million votes left to count nationally --Harris down 3.5M vs. Trump, 10.0M vs. Biden --Likely final gap: 1.8M - 2.6M vs Trump, 5.2 - 5.7M vs. Biden --Trump on track to end up at almost exactly 50%
Meanwhile, the 5 swing state Senate GOP candidates are now collectively running 552K behind Trump, while the 5 Dems are running 26K *ahead* of Harris:
Here's an updated summary of the likely final turnout in each state compared to 2020. AFAICT, it looks like turnout surpassed 2020 in 6 of the 7 swing states. The one where it came behind? Pennsylvania...which is also the only state where the Senate Dem is behind.
I haven’t stopped thinking about this chart. 🤯
And CA
The GA number is WILD. 🧐
📣 UPDATE: --Popular vote gap has shrunk to 3.2M (2.1%) --Final pop gap will likely be 1.7 - 2.4M (1.1 - 1.6%) --Harris now 9.5M behind Biden; will likely end up 5.2 - 5.5M behind --Total turnout now 148.9M w/another ~7.3M still left to count
Meanwhile, Bob Casey is now less than 35K behind in PA, with ~100K ballots still left to count. He'd need over 2/3 of them to break his way to pull off a win. Collectively, the 5 swing state GOP Senate candidates are now 557K behind Trump.
PA Dems mounted a pretty extensive ballot cure outreach on behalf of Casey, so I wouldn't be surprised if the outstanding ballots are disproportionately his (though probably not a 2/3 margin).
Fwiw I was @adambstrassberg over there, as per your earlier comment
