Post by Charles Gaba / Redsky

Here's an updated summary of the likely final turnout in each state compared to 2020. AFAICT, it looks like turnout surpassed 2020 in 6 of the 7 swing states. The one where it came behind? Pennsylvania...which is also the only state where the Senate Dem is behind.

nov 11, 2024, 11:44 pm • 20 10 • view

I haven’t stopped thinking about this chart. 🤯

nov 12, 2024, 3:04 pm • 0 0 • view

And CA

nov 11, 2024, 11:48 pm • 1 0 • view

The GA number is WILD. 🧐

nov 11, 2024, 11:47 pm • 1 0 • view

📣 UPDATE: --Popular vote gap has shrunk to 3.2M (2.1%) --Final pop gap will likely be 1.7 - 2.4M (1.1 - 1.6%) --Harris now 9.5M behind Biden; will likely end up 5.2 - 5.5M behind --Total turnout now 148.9M w/another ~7.3M still left to count

nov 12, 2024, 6:04 pm • 8 3 • view

Meanwhile, Bob Casey is now less than 35K behind in PA, with ~100K ballots still left to count. He'd need over 2/3 of them to break his way to pull off a win. Collectively, the 5 swing state GOP Senate candidates are now 557K behind Trump.

Table comparing swing state Senate races vs. POTUS race.

nov 12, 2024, 6:05 pm • 9 3 • view

PA Dems mounted a pretty extensive ballot cure outreach on behalf of Casey, so I wouldn't be surprised if the outstanding ballots are disproportionately his (though probably not a 2/3 margin).

nov 12, 2024, 6:08 pm • 4 0 • view

Damn so close

nov 12, 2024, 10:23 pm • 0 0 • view

UPDATE: CNN has the PA Senate gap down to 29.4K.

PA Senate Race update (Casey down 29.4K)

nov 12, 2024, 10:40 pm • 16 3 • view

The deadline to cure has already passed.

nov 12, 2024, 10:41 pm • 0 0 • view

📣 UPDATE: --Popular vote gap still 3.2M (2.2%) --Final pop gap will likely be 1.8 - 2.5M (1.2 - 1.6%) --Harris now 9.2M behind Biden; will likely end up 5.1 - 5.5M behind --Total turnout now 149.4M w/another ~6.9M still left to count

Summary of 2024 POTUS results as of this moment.

nov 13, 2024, 12:07 am • 14 10 • view

Another update: --Pop vote gap down to 3.1M (2.1%) --Final pop gap likely 1.8 - 2.5M (1.2 - 1.6%) --Harris now less than 9.0M behind Biden --6.5M ballots left to count nationally This includes 2.4M in CA, 500K in NY, 400K in WA, 360K in NJ, 350K in NJ, 300K in MD & 250K in OR.

Tables summarizing current POTUS & Swing State Senate races

nov 13, 2024, 1:54 am • 30 13 • view

📌

nov 13, 2024, 4:26 am • 0 0 • view

Thanks CG.

nov 13, 2024, 4:26 am • 1 0 • view

No mandate!

nov 13, 2024, 2:26 am • 2 0 • view

Here's where things stand as of this morning: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... --Pop vote has broken 150M, ~8.3M behind 2020 --Still ~6.2M left to count; will likely end up ~156.3M, down ~2.1M from 2020 --Pop vote gap down to 3.1M (2.1%); will likely end up between 1.9 - 2.5M (1.2 - 1.6%)

nov 13, 2024, 1:59 pm • 28 17 • view

I’ll be interested in seeing analyses of how much that 2.1 million drop is due to the ease of voting in 2020.

nov 13, 2024, 2:10 pm • 6 2 • view

--Harris 8.9M behind Biden; will likely end up 5.2 - 5.5M behind --Trump now 1.3M ahead of 2020; will likely end up 3.7 - 4.1M ahead --Swing state GOP Senate candidates collectively 562K behind Trump (5.3%) --Casey now 29.3K behind McCormick, w/~100K provisionals/etc supposedly left to count

Table summarizing current 2024 POTUS & swing state Senate results

nov 13, 2024, 2:00 pm • 14 8 • view

Via CNN's data, here's my best estimates of how many votes are remaining in each state. The "99%" is a bit misleading since it really just means there's some unknown number of provisionals/etc. remaining, not all of which may be eligible to be counted:

Estimate of how many ballots are left to be counted in each state.

nov 13, 2024, 2:26 pm • 12 6 • view

This is pretty much my final update to this thread: ~900K ballots left to count nationally. Harris now has 74.6M She's down ~2.5M (1.6%) in the popular vote. Will likely end up ~2.4M (1.5%) Total turnout is up to 154.2M It's down ~4.2M from 2020; will likely end up down ~3.3M.