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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

Over 13% of Georgia's ENTIRE population is enrolled in #ACA individual market health insurance policies. ~90% are currently subsidized. ~10% are paying full price, either on or off the exchange.

Breakout of Georgia ACA enrollees by congressional district
aug 27, 2025, 11:28 pm • 34 9

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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

Individual market carriers in Georgia are asking for weighted average premium increases of a whopping 33.5%. Except for Aetna, which is dropping out of the ACA market entirely in every state.

Breakout of Georgia ACA individual market carrier 2026 premium increase requests
aug 27, 2025, 11:30 pm • 34 15 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

Assuming those are final, the ~10% of GA ACA enrollees currently paying full price will see their premiums spike by around 1/3 on average. That's pretty bad. But not as bad as what most of the other 90% are likely facing...not "after the midterms" but in just FOUR MONTHS.

aug 27, 2025, 11:32 pm • 32 12 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

With the improved subsidies expiring on 12/31/25 and CMS's so-called "Integrity Rule" being implemented, this is what it will likely look like for the ~1.3 million enrollees currently receiving federal subsidies. (caveats apply; see blog post for details)

Georgia: Impact on net ACA individual market premiums for various households at various income levels if IRA subsidies expire & CMS
aug 27, 2025, 11:34 pm • 23 9 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

A single 50-yr old could see their premiums triple. A single parent could see theirs increase 3.5x. A family of four could see theirs go up 3.7x. And an older couple could go from paying $638/mo to over $3,300...FIVE TIMES what they pay today for the same policy.

aug 27, 2025, 11:36 pm • 43 18 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

🚨 NEXT UP: TEXAS. acasignups.net/ira-subsidy-...

aug 28, 2025, 12:14 am • 30 13 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

TEXAS had over 4 MILLION residents enroll in ACA market plans this year, with ~3.8 million receiving federal subsidies & another ~250K paying full price either on or off the exchange. With attrition, the total is down to more like 3.8 million total as of today...still 12% of the total population.

Breakout of ACA individual market enrollment by congressional district in Texas
aug 28, 2025, 12:17 am • 21 8 • view
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hollyquick.bsky.social @hollyquick.bsky.social

Whoa!

aug 28, 2025, 12:25 am • 1 0 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

Texas carriers plan on increasing average premiums by a collective 31% statewide... ...except, again, for Aetna, which is definitely dropping out, as is CHRISTUS (at least I think they are). ~250,000 full-price enrollees are looking at paying ~31% more starting in January.

Breakout of avg. 2026 premium rate hikes by carrier in Texas
aug 28, 2025, 12:21 am • 30 13 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

As for the ~3.5 MILLION Texans who are currently receiving federal subsidies: Once again, it's not gonna be pretty. AGAIN: THIS IS NOT HAPPENING AFTER THE MIDTERMS. THIS IS CURRENTLY SET TO HAPPEN STARTING IN JANUARY 2026.

Texas: Impact on net ACA benchmark Silver plan premiums for various households if IRA subsidies expire & CMS
aug 28, 2025, 12:23 am • 42 16 • view
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Dan Shenise @danshenise.bsky.social

Well it starting in January is actually beneficial, it might get people thinking.

aug 28, 2025, 12:29 am • 1 0 • view
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Jeffrey Terrell @archijeff.bsky.social

How so? Considering get cancer at a different time or in a different state?

aug 28, 2025, 12:33 am • 0 0 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

I should note that the example on the right side of the graph above (the 64-yr old couple who earn $90,000/yr) would cost them $38,664/year in premiums alone, or 43% of their gross income.

aug 28, 2025, 12:26 am • 32 7 • view
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Charles Gaba @charlesgaba.com

OK, next up: CALIFORNIA. Despite having 1/3 higher population than Texas, California actually has ~40% *fewer* ACA enrollees. Why? CA expanded Medicaid under the ACA; TX hasn't, which means a lot of Texans who should be on Medicaid are in ACA plans instead. acasignups.net/ira-subsidy-...

aug 28, 2025, 12:30 am • 36 10 • view
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Anti Orange @botswana-frog.bsky.social

Holy fucking Moly!

aug 28, 2025, 1:33 am • 1 0 • view
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Ryan @stonesfan23.bsky.social

Merry Christmas!

aug 28, 2025, 3:30 am • 0 0 • view