Reminder that Putin has never said he wants a trilateral meeting, had never said he would respect Ukrainian sovereignty, and has never said he wants to end the war. Not to be a downer, but the discussion of security guarantees is premature.
Reminder that Putin has never said he wants a trilateral meeting, had never said he would respect Ukrainian sovereignty, and has never said he wants to end the war. Not to be a downer, but the discussion of security guarantees is premature.
Trump will commit to anything that takes no effort on his part and costs him no money. Those conditions will allow him to forget any commitment that he made. Don’t remind him either. He’ll deny that he made it and legitimately. He’s dementing after all.
You are absolutely right. This is just #PresidentPedochet caping for his puppet master Putin.
The only "security guarantees" Putin has in mind are the ones he would offer to a Lukachenko-style Ukrainian dictator against the Ukrainian people....
Premature and irrelevant because it's going to take boots on the ground to force him to end it
Any distraction from the kid fucker In chief
Or as this anthem says; "We shall write a new beginning, free of hatred's heavy chain. " ; If that is not an Ode to Joy; nothing we do will be ;) @kajakallas.bsky.social @marossefcovic.bsky.social @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu @mark-carney.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm1J...
Zelensky said for months he is ready for one. As European Im ready for the alliance to end; we may not be ready to pickup on all defence fronts; but we're certainly not ready to do the job of US Congress and Senate only bc they fail to keep their potus on a damn leash www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm1J...
The problem here in America begins with Trump obviously but he is propped up by a system that cuts off the minority from any power or leverage. The Founders never envisioned the Executive, Judicial, and Legislative branches all crumbling at one moment. It has happened. Full tilt collapse.
You just don't get it do you? The world is bigger than the almighty USA. Even in a post on Ukraine you manage to make it about YOU. Do me a favor and get your head out of your own ass. It's not our job nor our intention to keep cleaningup your mess. We have our own shitt to deal with here.
Yes I was raised in Europe. Thanks for the update.
And don't get me wrong. I Feel bad for US workers. But when has US felt bad for the EU? You could not even manage the decency to back us on MH17; not when there is something to gain for the USA. I held back for years; even now YOU make this about YOU. Im done. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm1J...
I was just replying to your post by highlighting default in the American political system. I lived & worked in Europe for a decade & have family plus many friends living there. I visit regularly- am considering moving back. Sorry you’re so angry. We know how bad trump is here. But there’s more.
Jeah I get that. But that still doesn't change the fact that we don't have time to act as your checks and balances as EU. It's not our mess; that's your mess and your govt is making us jump through damn hoops while layingout red carpet for Putin;equal players my ass www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm1J...
Besides that, no guarantee from Trump is worth the paper it's printed on.
And Putin has never respected ANY "security guarantees" in the past.
bsky.app/profile/af68...
Hes already broken several security guarantees with Ukraine. He will break these too if they happen.
Another Putin/Trump delay, distraction.
All because the guy who calls himself the commander in chief is a full of shit con man.
bsky.app/profile/af68...
Read Timothy Snyder’s take on this war and Putin. He’s trying to retake land he views as part of mother Russia. IMO only his death will stop him. He’s an oligarch not a president of a representative democracy. To think otherwise is silly.
We can not trust a word out of POS (formerly POTUS) Vonshitznpants. Ukraine just needs to win out right, and take Russia. 🚬😎
And tRump is a moron.
I think it’s completely off the rails. When did an invader want a peaceful resolution to his invasion, ever? Right.
And Trumps' participation is presumptuous, as well. Not to mention, suspect. Follow the money, favors, alliances and allegiances discover his REAL motivation, but for certain it doesn't involve the lives of anyone, but his own.
Like the security guarantees Ukraine got after it handed back the nukes it inherited from the USSR.
The discussion of security guarantees is futile. Putin has never, and will never, honor any deal with anybody. He is the poster boy for "non-trustworthy person". His dream and ultimate goal is USSR version 2. With him as a modern emperor! The ONLY way to defeat him, is whooping his ass in Ukraine!!!
Not just premature, pointless at present. Ukraine got security guarantees from Russia, USA and UK in 1994 when they gave up their nukes, which weren't honoured. Putin also broke numerous ceasefire deals after his invasion in 2014. Ukraine obviously would be foolish to trust any of these promises.
Yes. If Trump wants a peace prize he needs to come up with a plan that will avoid more aggression. Serious consequences for breaking the agreement that Putin takes seriously. Not going to happen.
Ukraine and Zelenskyy are not foolish. They see clearly Putin's dark, evil soul.
I do not understand why this agreement being breached isn’t discussed more often.
In the US and UK? Embarrassment.
To what end?
for those Americans saying they are not obliged to help Ukraine
oh... yes hit them with a bit of legalese. Sure that wins over MAGA idiots like Speaker Johnson or MTG. Because if haven't grasped concepts like self-determination, independence & sovereignty and, that borders shouldn't be changed by force then the Budapest Agreement is really going to win it :)
Actually it serves as irrefutable fact to anyone touting‘security guarantees’ that such a provision must have specific teeth. Consequences. Otherwise, they mean nothing.
Well said. Look as Brit am ashamed more isn't done under Budapest obligations but that simply isn't where the debate is nor where it should be. Guarantees will be tested by RU too. They have decades of Cold War form like here with this Berlin stand-off. rarehistoricalphotos.com/standoff-che...
Oh because that makes Obama look bad too
💔
bsky.app/profile/af68...
Exactly
Only thing we can be thankful for is that Donald didn't insult Zelenskyy again. He felt the pressure of European unity. Whether he'll do anything to help Ukraine remains to be seen. I wouldn't hold my breath. youtu.be/MwwSua0zdIY
Trump delivers Putin's message: ►“no going into Nato by Ukraine” ►Crimea, illegally annexed, remains Russian ▶︎All burden on peace thrust on Ukraine
Europe is working towards an independent nato. Marginalizing America. The problem is if the first step is taken, it’s easier to take all other steps after that. Soon you will have a Europe that sees America as a competitor and not an ally. That not where you want this to go. America needs the EU too
You leave him some wiggle room for doing something credible. I do not, unless Ukraine simply gives in & throws in the towel.
How belittling of Trump in that last meeting. He came across as a schoolyard bully, without balls.As did Vance, Mr eyeliner. They both looked pathetic.
Weak weak men
Putin has been remarkably consistent. Germany needs to give Ukraine Taurus missiles if they promise to only hit military and Oil & Gas targets.
War is upon us. I don’t know who suggested the ‘trilat’ be held in Geneva, but I believe Putin would be arrested immediately.
Security guarantees to Ukraine were already signed and violated by both the US and Russia, when they wanted Ukraine to give up it’s nuclear weapons
And who would trust the US to uphold their part in any security guarantees, no matter how "robust"?
We 🇺🇸 have violated no part of The Budapest Memorandum
Correct. Putin is playing Trump. Zelenskyy and the Europeans should just take Trump out of the process entirely. Thanks for your efforts.
Exactly. The only thing that came out of that meeting is more bombing time for Putin. As for everything else discussed, Putin will say thank you but nyet.
Imagine what they are thinking -- then saying to their spouses. Oy.
And what Putin wants, or says he wants, must be ignored. He is a savage dog and must be contained or put down - there is no other consideration
Even if Putin said he would do all of those things, he won't. He' a conman and says whatever he wants to get his way....just like Trump! 2 con-men.
peace in ukraine is made in drone factories. or not.
Right, no one ever says that Russia has to withdraw from Ukraine's original borders.
Trusting Crayola Man is absolutely Cray Cray
You’re so right
Russia gave Ukraine a "security guarantee" when Ukraine gave all the nukes that were on Ukrainian soil back to Russia. Putin broke that agreement. Any agreement with Putin isn't worth the paper it is printed on (just like any agreement with trump)
If there is no ceasefire - and the daily bombings & murders of innocents have not stopped - a trilateral meeting is an illusion. It can happen but only with putin’s capitulation, or his demise. #SlavaUkraini 🌻✌🏼🇺🇦
There were already security guarantees and UA gave up its nuclear weapons. Guarantees mean nothing when the parties don't honor them.
If u don’t set that red line out from the start then all other talk is premature
Being honest is not being a bummer. Always lying IS the bummer belched out by 47
Reality is always a downer in these times where "alternative facts" are steering all policy decisions.
Trumps imaginary peace talks are going nicely. Aspirational?
And the European leaders understand that completely. Trump is a fool.
The last four Security guarantees were not worth the paper they were written on, what makes anyone thing that any future guarantee would be any better. We let them down before and will again. If nuclear had been retained, perhaps we would not be in this situation. Oh for greater hindsight .
Donate directly to Ukraine here. 🇺🇦 UNITED24 - The initiative of the President of Ukraine u24.gov.ua
We and Russia already gave Ukraine security guarantees when they gave up their nukes under the Budapest memorandum. Russia needs to get the fuck out of Ukrainian lands and we need to honor our commitment.
Yes, some people think that Trump speaks on behalf of Putin when in fact Putin speaks for both of them.
We have our own problems here with Agent Krasnov. He even took a 40 minute "pause" yesterday to have a 40 minute phone call with Putin. The US has slidden into autocracy here, and we can't even help ourselves to get out of it.
I think he speaks to Putin a lot more often than is believed, not a daily thing, but likely weekly and maybe twice a week if needed. There’s no monitoring trumps phone calls anymore, not since his first foray into politics
Undoubtedly, plenty of communication between them.
Yep. I agree.
This ☝️
Thank you. It was one of my rare moments of insight. 😁
Dunno, you fair bamboozled old Gollum. Clearly Valinor haz t'Internetz... Nice to kno'
It’s diverted Trump from what could have been a disastrous course of agreeing settlements with Putin.
This is all just one ridiculous exercise where Trump can host a "summit" where he allegedly will make a "deal" that will get him the Nobel participation trophy he so badly wants. He has no idea that Putin is 100% playing him and using him to advance Russia's demands only.
Trump is able to create this charade because Biden and euros failed, hemming and hawing over weapons systems.
If only one of our leaders had the guts to say that yesterday.
How many times has Putin been invited to the table for these meetings and not shown up? I think we’re at 3 times now. He isn’t interested in peace, he’s interested in propaganda, stealing Ukrainian land, and controlling their government. No peace for Russia, till they stop fighting in Ukraine.
and it is total bullshit
Security guarantees seem distant & unrealistic assurances when we can’t even get planes to Ukraine they can fly to defend their skies, but I see the utility of threatening allied boots on the ground to bargain w/ Putin and pressure Trump to move toward defending Europe short of hostilities.
This is all a Trump stunt. Some dummies out there still believe he has all the answers 🥴
As usual you are right. Remember this is how he works incrementally with delegations until he sees an opening!!
It will never happen with Putin.
Putin is blackmailing Trump
I feel your right Anne. I feel Putin is furious at Trump because of all the things he did for him. Now he is calling in Trumps markers and Trump is ignoring him. Putin is a cruel, vicious, violent dictator. Russia is up in flames and Putin is getting desperate.
Putin will not abide by anything he says to gain Ukraine’s land.
Which is why security guarantees are so important. Nobody should trust anything Putin says. Unfortunately Krasnov is still his stooge and believes him.
I wouldn't trust Trump in view of security guarantees as little as I would trust Putin. Look at the security guarantees of the Budapest Memorandum 1994 - they were not worth the paper they were written on!
Which is why the security guarantees needs to involve a permanent presence of NATO in Ukraine.
But what if the US is not reliable? Then we're having a greater problem than we are currently having!
I said NATO, not the US. NATO consists of 31 other countries. And at this point, NATO shouldn't count on the US for anything. And NATO could survive without the US.
Putin will never agree to NATO presence in Ukraine. His excuse for war was that NATO was encroaching on Russian territories. There is no solution to this problem that Putin will not abuse.
He certainly won't agree to it right now considering that Russia is very slowly making gains. However, if his economy was cratering even more and he was losing a lot more thanks to additional firepower given to Ukraine, he might have to suck it up.
It is more likely to be the Russian economy that defeats him. People struggling to live is not a good thing for any countries govt.
Except Putin doesn't care about the current state of the economy as its mostly affecting the little people. If his oligarch buddies really start to feel the pain of the economy, then he is in trouble.
If the US decides to ignore paragraph 5 and won't act in case the security troops are getting shot at by the Russians, this will trigger a war that will involve the whole of Europe. That's when the shit will really hit the fan! Do you not realise this?
Yep
Agreed. I don't know how we went from war to security guarantees without the two primaries having even spoken. The orange shitgibbon has told us what Putin wants: land and no membership in NATO. This is what I believe will be the offer, despite Monday.
Does anybody really believe that guarantees from Putin are any type of guarantees at all?
Beside that, would you trust security from The US right now? Come on,get real! A Trump promise is dust as it leaves his mouth.
How can people know what Putin said or not? Russian voices were censored from the begining of the proxy war. In what court of law do we only listen to one side of the story? Learn from the qualified professors like Robert H. Wade: blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
The only security guarantee the EU should accept is NATO membership for Ukraine!
Maybe they need you as a mediator?
Incompetent Schitler is trying to cover up his latest ass kicking.
Any politician or military leader who invokes borders as an argument is dangerous and dealing with a 19th century mentality. German U Boats and Japanese aircraft carriers should have settled that nine decades ago let alone ICBMs and transcontinental aircraft. There are NO MILITARY borders
Way premature.
Didn't Russia (and indeed the US and Belarus) sign the Budapest Memorandum, guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty ? I wonder how that turned out.
They have already signed the peace deal (Budapest), now they appear to be negotiating the same deal with Ukraine being smaller again. Repeat again in 5 years.
@anneapplebaum.bsky.social He's never treated Zalensky as equal and never will. He always acts as if superior to all the former USSR and related countries (Poland incl.)
@anneapplebaum.bsky.social he did, way back when the the Budapest Memorandum to give up nuclear arsenal was signed in 1994. There were guarantees of security and territorial integrity from the US, the UK, France, China and...Russia. Ukraine's greatest mistake.
But we can assume he did say to Trump, in their bilateral, ‘There will be no ceasefire!’ Which means he wants to continue the war until he has the territories he wants. And jaw jaw at the same time.
The discussion of security guarantees is as worthless as those promised in Budapest and Minsk.
It’s all smoke and mirrors because he has the Epstein files, revealing Trump’s involvement. I would bet my life savings on it.
💯
Then what were the Minsk agreements?
Genau
So obvious and clear.
Concepts of a framework for a meeting.
In two weeks.
He’ll just not show up.
Putin doesn’t need to be KGB to easily sway Trump’s behavior, a ‘you look smart with the red tie’ usually suffices.
You can't believe anything Putin or Russia says. Ask me how I know. 🇺🇸🇱🇻
This was Trump’s lies through his faults teeth.
to say the least - everything is premature until Putin's Puppet in the White House steps aside😠
Just do it. Take Trumps word for it and put troops in Ukraine.
bsky.app/profile/gins...
Yes- also a Zelenskyy/Putin "face to face" will accomplish NOTHING.
Plus Putin says Zelenskyy is an illegitimate President. The talk of a face to face meeting is a placeholder.
It’s absurd to use Trump in same sentence as “guarantee” Trump has broken his marriage vows, his oath to uphold the Constitution, his pledge to release Epstein files, his assurance he'd end Russia-Ukraine War on Day 1, his vow to lower prices & balance the budget! open.substack.com/pub/contrari...
The best Sanctions are Ukrainian and they can be supported by individuals in the international community. Donate for drone warfare! choose love
Most "things" that come out of 🍊 Donnie's mouth are inappropriate or premature, and while a TACO outcome is likely, it might not hurt for the MSM to keep repeating what Fat Hitler brought up himself
Anyone who believes that the USA will honour (English/Australian spelling) is delusional.. and Putin knows that. Think back to USA guarantee's given by Clinton
The #theAtlantic garbage paper think they are geo political experts is ironic 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Ukraine signed Away ALL their Nukes. Willingly. has this no Bearing?
Putin has broken all the agreements he has made.
Spot on Anne! Trump wants a quick fix and to hell with the consequences! He's the worst person in the world to act as mediator because he gets his orders from Putin.
No, the PROVISION of security guarantees for Ukraine is 4 years overdue! Russia must be defeated, not threatened.
Premature? Trump cut off the peace momentum by walking back the American security agreement inclusion of troops in support of it. If this is the Art of the Deal, the artwork is a finger painting.
There are 30 countries that are willing to put troops in Ukraine. No disrespect intended, but American troops arent needed.
Watching the post meeting TV you can see that NATO leaders rehearsed their parts well by in turn excessively praising trump to stroke his ego. Meanwhile when not talking, you can see them barely able to keep from laughing at trump. TACO is the butt of international jokes
Deservedly so ...
America and Russia bomb people America killed millions In revenge for 9/11 But not in Saudi Arabia
cease fire was the goal-what happened-trump backed down again kneeling before putin-IMPEACH HIM!
This is his hill to die on. He’s the most vicious scorned “entity” on the planet and he’s holding everyone hostage to pay attention to him. He wants to be a communist European and play in their backyard but cannot so he will eat them alive to be feared if not liked. He’s Gollum holding Europe.
There is a huge amount of wishful thinking in Western circles at the moment about a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war. The idea that Putin will negotiate and agree terms in good faith is vacuous.
Is this all being done simply as a part of Trump’s Peace Prize scheme?
The Ukraine has no reason to trust them either. They've been violated over and over again.
…already happened in 1994 and have all been forgotten. Treaties, like laws are only effective if they are enforced. Multinational treaty “guaranteed” Ukraine’s sovereignty - signed by US, Europe, & Russia. Ignored by all except Ukraine shortly afterwards.
Any discussion at all involving Trump is an absurdist exercise in futility. It will end sooner if they ghost the moron from the POTUS reality show.
It's all utter nonsense. Putin has no intention of ending the war, and is always five steps ahead of Trump. The only way to stop the mass murderer is by muscularly arming Ukraine.
Das ist ein klassischer Fall von "Ich-weiß-was-ich-sage"-Politik. Trump scheint sich auf Dinge einzulassen, die ihm keine Mühe machen, und Putin bietet "Sicherheitsgarantien", die nur für seine eigenen Interessen gelten. Werden wir jemals wieder auf ehrliche Worte stoßen?
Particularly when the last time we said we would provide security guarantees the Putin MessagengerBoy and his MAGA zombies walked away from previous promises. Security guarentees from what America is now; a Pariah State, are meaningless.
Putin doesn't want "meetings." He wants property. He wants sovereignty. He wants Zelensky under his boot. There's no further discussion with Putin. OR Zelensky for that matter. I don't like violence and war, but if Putin "wins" Ukraine, what's next? The rest of the planet? Putin must be stopped.
I mean it's not like "Okay I have Ukraine now. I'm done. Thanks everybody. I'm gonna stop taking over countries now. Maybe take on basket weaving instead. That looks like fun!" 👍
The West made that assumption in 1938.
The problem is that with Crimea and the Donbas, he did have a group of Russians that he could leverage to grab the land. Unfortunately he also has this in the Baltic states. I think if a land for peace deal is reached and European armies are on his borders, he may at least pause and die.
The problem for the Baltic States and the Stans is that, like Ukraine, they will distrust and discriminate against Russian-speakers. (Quite rightly given their history!) This will be used as the pretext for the next land grab by Putin.
I think, his thinking is: it it will take a generation to 'digest' Ukraine. Then use the manpower of Ukraine and Belarus *and Russia* to attack Poland. Russian propaganda reminding the population of the conquest of Paris! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_...
Putin doesn't have a generation. I doubt he has a decade left in him. Zelensky is slowing down what Putin feels should be inevitable. Putin is running out of time. Zelensky is waiting for him to die. My concern is, who do THEY replace Putin with? and who is this THEY? Same assholes who own Trump..?
Exactly. Once Putin has Ukraine, he invades Poland and Lithuania. Luckily, Putin has prostrate cancer plus Parkinsons. Give him 12 months at most before he is dead. He didn't even attend the mtg. with Trump. It was one of his "doubles" he sent.
Even after Putin is dead, I still won't believe it. Maybe if I visited his funeral and ripped his dead heart out of his body while laying in a coffin I'd look at his heart and shrug. "Still not dead enough." Then I'd put his heart in the coffin, close the lid, set it on fire and light a cigarette.
America Has bombed far more.kids than Russia Are American bombs good in Your opinion? Boeing builds bombs Fly often to Fund genocide Earth is burning
U.S. military-industrial complex out of control: $1,700,000,000.00 now being spent to make Plutonium Pits (the bomb cores that begin the chain reaction in every US thermonuclear weapon). Read why it's unnecessary, dangerous & a complete waste of U.S. tax $$$: www.ucs.org/resources/pl...
Be happy to assist you.
bring some kerosene.
🤣
мысли и молитвы is Russian for thoughts & prayers🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽
Not to mention they had one before invasion #1 and invasion #2
He just wants the land and for Ukraine to stop fighting back and no join NATO. That way he can rearm and do it all again.
Even if he did, putin cannot be trusted. It was a show. tRump played his part, and putin left. Nothing was accomplished, except that the US welcomed a war criminal to this country.
So Trump wants Ukraine to give up land illegally occupied by Russia. What is Russia giving up? Fuck Putin, Fuck Trump, and fuck the Russians.
Didn’t we make security guarantees back when we convinced Ukraine to relinquish its nuclear weapons? Why should they barely on any guarantees from us?
Agreed, however we know that's exactly what Putin will not agree to i.e. no NATO admission. We get to the end quicker. In the end, in may very well be boots on the ground but we should try the harshest of sanctions first.
Putin is manically obsessed in his incompetent amateur historian way with giving the rotted old Soviet Union/Russian Empire corpse a jolt of electricity. Once viewed through this lens, all of his manoeuvrings of the partially liquefied turd brained US Epstein in Chief are pretty obvious.
Just as TRUMP has never acknowledged that RUSSIA ATTACKED UKRAINE.
Security guarantees are empty promises from the US. Ukraine gave up nukes and bombers for security guarantees by the US and the West after the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia invaded and occupies Ukraine all the same.
lol i have Personal hatred for stupid Donald trump
Putin wants to "put the band back together" starting with Ukraine. He wants to go back to the days of the USSR. Why would he want a peace agreement? He wants Ukraine.
Probably. But it makes Trump think that peace will come soon. It keeps him motivated. American intelligence and logistics still support Ukraine, and that’s positive. It’s the best way to buy time.
We are moving from This Fake summit, to Attacking Mail-In voting to lose the Epstein stuff. Everything you listed sounds great - which is the point. And the news chases it - and here we are.
Premature? Putin wants nothing of an end to this war. It won't even begin to end until and after both Moscow and St. Petersburg are leveled to rubble. Why are we all just fooling ourselves about this? It makes no sense to me.
Exactly. They throw out these steps to peace without regard to the guy who is unwilling to give up anything he has already taken.
That's when you take the second step before the first. Shouldn't a ceasefire be agreed before the negotiations? Putin doesn't want a ceasefire because then Ukraine will use it to rearm. And then possibly attack Russia.
If Europe and the rest of the actual democracies in the world want they can keep helping Ukraine and at some point Putin might have to try to end it. Then you could do something. Right now I see no evidence that Russia is willing to negotiate in good faith.
They also need to strengthen their own ties and I still say the actual democracies of the world need to form a new group without us, at least for now, and without any one member having veto power. The UK needs to also undo Brexit.
And Putin calling Zelenskyy a dictator, if he shows up together with him, ruzzians will call him a traitor.
Wishful thinking commingled with fantasy and typical TACO delusion.
Agree, this process seems rushed as if in time for a prize in October, even though 2025 nominees have been selected in Spring. I fear that without US support EU cannot foot the bill and Zelenskyy is giving in.
I am fairly certain that nothing of value to Ukraine will vis a vis Russia will come out of these US meetings now Air raids went off in Kiev while the meetings took place in the US! Russia was attacking Ukraine while the Alaska meeting took place Putin has no interest in peace; he is playing Trump
This discussion between the three leaders needs to be over the phone. Hammer out each Country’s wants, demands and desires. Take the time necessary not these 40 minute public discussions. Work through diplomacy.
Am afraid you are entirely right to be extremely sceptic, Putin will not budge on anything.
Destroying more Russian oil refineries and weapons factories are the only thing he will listen to. And if peace is reached by giving up land, Europe needs to move soldiers right up to the new borders and screw whether Putin likes it or not.
Exactly, force is the only thing he will listen to as it will further impact his already poor economy. And it is not up to Putler to determine whether European boots can be moved into Ukraine either. Bullies should be bullied back.
Putin obviously saw Trump as his most potent weapon, but Trump used up the last of his leverage when he cut off weapons to Ukraine. Beyond weaponizing Trump, Putin is out of good options.
We already had security guarantees, which Putin violated.
i wish Anne Applebaum were running for office.
The EU putting bases in Ukraine is that safety guarantee. It is basically the same countries as NATO in Europe. The hold-up is Trump, all countries in Washington agreed to it, but the US. All agreed to an Article 5 type NATO agreement, again except the Trump US.
You're not being a downer, dearest. You, my darling, are now known as: a strategic thinker who has skillfully the disparate aggregates of this perplexing puzzle, and concocted a plausible, if not probable scenario. Bravo!
Skillfully distilled
Looking rationally, this deal would allow Putin to claim victory whilst solid security guarantees would be very positive for Ukraine. Continuing the war isn’t cost free for putin, the economy is overheating and the casualties are mounting. I’m highly sceptical though.
Like so much else, it's performative. To point to a success that doesn't exist.
If any of this is related to musings from Trump, it's already been discarded as 'make it up as you go diplomacy' from the orange windbag.
He guaranteed ukraine sovereignty back in the 90s when ukraine gave up all their nukes. Putin is not credible. I'd hoped the presence of eu leaders yesterday would've made a difference. Doesn't sound like it did.
Not sure the media understands this.
Ask U of Trump students. Trump Steak buyers, and many vendors and contractors over 5 decades about the STRENGTH of any Donald Trump guarantees 😂 🤡
Also, we quickly forget Trump's first thought was to rape Ukraine of it's natural resources in return for past deliveries of arms. Nothing is now said about this so one suspects Putin has made a higher counter offer of this kind.
And he's explicitly ruled out as a provocation the sort of guarantees Starmer talks about.
Mission accomplished Peace in our time.
We know what Putin wants...he WANTS the entire Ukraine to be Russian. If we don't stop him now.....what's to stop him from grabbing more countries?
x.com/RapidRespons...
No one is finding it an emergency that a POTUS is following orders from Russia?? CIA, hawks, even republicans- everyone just good with this?!?
Neither Ukraine nor Europe will accept Russian “guarantees.” They understand the stakes.
It's all a massive waste of time because 1) Putin is never going to honor a cease fire or anything else, & won't leave Ukraine until defeated and 2) Ukraine is not going to agree to just hand over territory (nor should they) The "peace talks" are just Putin's gambit for taking territory w/o cost.
The question isn't what Putin respects or doesn't. The only question right now is how to end the war and ensure the security of Ukraine and Europe. Russia's security is also important, but it's not a priority.
The way to end the war is to defeat Putin, not negotiate with him. He does not negotiate in good faith. He needs to be crushed militarily.
This should have all been taken care of when Unkraine agreed to give up it's nukes.
Huge distraction for Don the Con.
I think Ukraine should make a deal about the land. Things are only going to get worse.
At the pace of less than 1% in 3 years. Does it sound like a good deal to you - "surrender Kramatorsk now, otherwise Russia might get it anyway somewhere around 2040"?
But its a start. There are two things that need to happen to achieve peace in Ukraine. 1) Ukraine relinquishing territory (implicitly, not explicitly) and 2) Security guarantees for Ukraine. So better to start the discussion now, even if its not close to happening.
I think Trump likes and proud of himself to be able to say the word “trilateral”. That’s why he keeps repeating that word. As you rightly stated, Putin has never said any of those things. Now his soldiers are flying Russia and American flags as they commit war crimes.
But the discussion has to be pounded into trump’s head from now until they are no longer premature. Otherwise he will simply do as putin dictates.
True.
Even Trump repeatedly said he wanted peace. Everyone at the meeting in Washington wanted peace. Putin NEVER said that. He is the only one who clearly doesn't have peace on his mind.
He's played Trump.
Putin already violated the agreement between Russia, U.K & U.S to protect Ukraine's sovereignty after giving up NUKES for independence! Security guarantees is kicking the can down the road again! FO to Russia and stay there and Ukraine joins NATO is the only security guarantees!
It really doesn't matter what Putin said, he could have promised all of those things, but has proven he will never abide by any type of agreement.
If he had said it he wouldn’t do it anyway. Just like someone else we know.
THIS! Meanwhile German chancellor:
That simple shows how low the expectations have been.
Yesterday's summit at the WH was purely theatricals to appease Trump, so that he wouldn't interfere again with intelligence sharing and arms delivery. UA knows that rusnya is on the verge of collapse. The new long-range capabilities will hasten it.
An intervention, it was an intervention.
Precisely, but Zelensky doesn't really believe that it's possible to come to terms with Huylo. In that sense, it's also a performance.
He is right, of course. And he knows more than enough about them. But for now, we have to play along, because of patriots and missiles. Until the Coalition of the Determined has enough of their own.
North Korea has been on the verge of collapse for decades so I wouldn't hold out much hope on that count. A brutal dictator can cow most populations, especially one that has rarely known any democracy in its past like Russia. They have shrugging and keeping their head down in their genes.
Not a good analogy, since NK is not involved in a kinetic war that consumes tens of thousands of lives and billions of $ per month. Large-scale wars drain economies like nothing else.
Per capita income in Russia is $11,000 vs $1,700 in North Korea so there is plenty of room for impoverishment of the population. And guess what? The poorer the population is, the easier they are to control. Let's not forget North Koreans are dying to save Putin's model. georank.org/economy/nort...
What is rent In poor nations vs rich nations ?
I am not disputing the iron grip that Putin has on his population of mentally-enslaved serfs. Afghanistan was a war of much lower intensity, and yet it forced the USSR to choose between hasty retreat and economic collapse. A better comparison would be with the total wars of the XX century, though.
The Soviets, like other Afghan invaders, were ground down by an insurgency in the rural areas. In the case of the Soviets, that insurgency was dramatically aided by American aid that devastated Soviet air capabilities. The Afghans didn't so much win as bleed the Soviets dry.
America built al qaeda
Yup, turning their backs on Afghanistan after the Soviets left opened up the playing field to whoever had enough guns and organization.
The US, despite being the most powerful military ever, did do well against the insurgency.
Yes, that's what happened.
& THAT is what spelled the downfall of the soviet union, NOT pressure from ameriKKKa, & certainly not ronald reagan's "mr. gorbachev, tear down this wall." what a filthy toilet fulla propaganda.
I also think America had very little to do with it. The only time I visited Moscow, in 1990, it seemed to be a failing economy with nothing in the shops and nowhere to go. There were some private markets selling Chinese-made goods but I don't think Russia ever succeeded in economic transition.
i was in berlin in 1990. was in the streets & through brandenberg gate the night of reunification. going into east berlin, once or twice, was so different from the west. yrs before that i;d heard that everything was grey...even the people were grey. when i got there i saw exactly what they meant.
I spent the summer of 1990 in Poland and every summer since. The change has been huge. Not all good as under communism I am told by many real effort was made to house and entertain everyone in Poland. The trouble with Putin vs USSR is he isn't selling any ideology but kleptocracy.
that whole episode in history was horrible in so many ways. the way we behaved towards russia after the fall was shameful, & was deliberately humiliating, when they deserved a seat at the table. putin is getting his revenge; stalin 2.0. make russia great again.
Free-market ideologues will come up with an economic theory to justify any corporate money grab you like. You only have to look at the Trump circle. I wonder if shock therapy will work in Argentina. That's a country that only tries extremes and fails every time.
Is there an insurgency to speak of in Crimea and the Donbas? I only ask because this is the type of question a land for peace deal needs to answer.
Also, that war became a stalemate at around the time that Gorbachev's policy of Glasnost opened up avenues for the "man and womsn on the street" in the cities to voice their frustrations over what has become a meat grinder.
I don't think so. They are hits on bridges and oil facilities, but nothing like the attacks on helicopter gun ships that were instrumental in destroying Soviet control of the skies.
There is intense partisan activity, which hardly gets reported. Atesh is the largest group, and they post on X. Every second Friday, Ukraine the Latest hosts a scholarly expert who reports on recent activities. Ukrainian high command has the ability to order an insurrection at any time.
Millions of North Koreans died in a 1990s famine even after a North Korean guy I studied Chinese with in Beijing told me NK would copy China's path of reform and opening. They didn't. Some slow change is happening despite the government this says: libertyinnorthkorea.org/learn-a-chan...
Again, I am not expecting a popular uprising, just an economic collapse that would make it impossible for the regime to finance arms production, arms purchase abroad, enlistment bonuses, etc. Concurrently, they may soon lose the ability to refine oil and produce missiles and drones to hit UA with.
The poorer the population is, the easier they are to control. What's happening in US now? The Weimar Republic? Ya know what would raise tax dollars? Raising the minimum wage to a living wage, but then billionaires would have to come off of some money. Vote against your own priorities, Project 2025.
Since 2022 russia has made almost one trillion dollars a year from fossil fuel sales. They are not hurting, although their tanks and armor are being depleted faster than replacements can be be found.
That contradicts what every reputable source is saying, so I'll stick with expert opinion.
The russian economy was in bad shape during WWII, and they beat Nazi Germany with millions of deaths. Putin does not care about losses or the economy. They are also being propped up by China, which will not let them lose.
The only way that they beat their former nazi allies, or even to survive long enough to reorganise their defences, was through the Land Lease programme, courtesy of Uncle Sam. It was a mistake to bail them out.
Letting russia do whatever it wants is always a mistake. European powers have known this for 300 years.
“It’s impossible to see whether there’s a banking problem if banks want to roll over loans and the central bank is willing to close their eyes,” said Sergei Guriev, Dean of the London Business School. “There is no growth. It’s not clear how companies are going to pay back loans.” shorturl.at/CIdGX
The analogy with China is good though as their real estate bad loan crisis didn't explode, it just festered and slowed the entire economy eventually. China and India exporting cheap, overcapacity goods to Russia will really help prop up that economy as the US enters stagflation by blocking imports.
Ukraine knows their "security guarantee" is finishing off the broken RU army, they've already sunk most of the Black Sea fleet
The Alaskan Summit was a distraction from the Epstein controversy. A Hail Mary throw at best. Putin did his underling a solid by playing into Trumps distraction. Trump is underwater on every single poll and knows he's going to get thumped in the mid terms. He is desperate for some kind of win.
The positive is that he never acknowledged Zelensky as a legitimate president and now it seems that he has agreed to meet him. This would mean that he now acknowledges both Ukraine as a nation state with Zelensky as its president. So there seems to be some change.
Not really, no.
You can’t meet/negotiate with someone you don’t acknowledge. But I have to see the meeting between the two to believe it. I therefore don’t disagree with you.
I'm saying he always acknowledged him implicitly, by trying to have him assassinated among other things.
From day one of the Russian invasion the US response has been hampered by the Republicans desire to be buddies with Putin for personal gain. If we had followed the Budapest Memorandum our response would have looked like Desert Storm pushing Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait.
Where are the sanctions?!
We have been sanctioning Russia
bsky.app/profile/af68...
Really !
Who knows what he whispers in Trump's ear when they're alone. And who knows what Trump imagines and concocts. Trump lies so much, it's hard to know what he thinks is true and what he's intentionally lying about.
But what can you say after you’ve met with the orange 🍊 man who cannot find the president of Finland sitting in eye shot?
I’m struggling to understand the confidence in anything Trump agrees to. He has no integrity, and Putin has shown over and over again that Trump’ words mean nothing. Why would signed agreements make a difference?
Because the rest of the world has to pretend to take Trump seriously in case he puts 1000% tariffs on them in a fit of deranged pique.
Particularly since there already IS a signed treaty in place, which is supposed to guarantee Ukraine’s security and her territorial integrity, but is being ignored by both Russia and USA as signatory countries to date. Why trust them now? *cough* Budapest *cough*
This is totally where I’m coming from. You know, how they did their part and we aren’t. We know what Putin wants, and we know Trumpty isn’t able to say no. We just don’t know all the reasons why for sure. (I’ll bet it’s worse than we could imagine.)
For a guy who had someone else write a book about deals so he could put his name on it, Trump really sucks at making deals.
Because they have little choice but to keep working with him.
I think there are choices, it will take stout hearts and cooperation between most nations to cut at the heart of the matter of tariffs. More free trade between nations while leaving the US out of those sweet deals. Trump wants a piece of every pie, that is the entire problem
Best they can hope is our courts strike down the illegal use of this tariff nonsense when there is no emergency, and the changing of power dynamics in Congress next year. Till then, hang together or each hang alone.
It will be bad if America has to repay the illegal tariff money, we think the debt is bad now 😳
I dont think you understand how tariffs work. perhaps? We already pay those ourselves. They are a tax on Americans, and not the exporters. Thanks for the chat - bye now.
That’s right, my bad… ☮️
They have no choice but to work with him, no matter how they go about doing so. That is the reality, whatever jumping up& down, through hoops, with elbows thrown up, or knees bent. It is a very bad place to be, & they have shown themselves mostly unwilling, until yesterday, to show a united front.
Because the US still thinks of itself as pro Europe, anti Russia, pro NATO. Trump can insult Zelenskyy for supposed rudeness, but he can't do that to the whole of NATO.
But he has been weird against the entirety of NATO. Both he and hos cronies. On numerous occasions.
And NATO have indulged him. If they insulted him back it would give them an excuse to break away. But they've kowtowed (at least visibly), increased defence spending etc. So the regime aren't being given an excuse to justify breaking with NATO.
Also goes deeper than this, in that the more EUr invests in their defence, shows unity and cohesion and is fit for purpose, the more the US wants to control NATO. This, after all, is the very history of NATO which led to its forebear WEU being abandoned as the US sulked about not being included!
The US will inevitably loose control over Europe. Trump et al. are accelerating this process.
Well, yes but for instance they still wanted to appoint SACEUR earlier this year. But will happen as EUr can't be anchored to the imploding US. Won't want to be tarnished with proto-fascism and VVP fanboy policies. Will hold off as long as possible to milk US but suspect as Trumpski runs in 2028 😉
Or one of his henchmen. If there will be any more real US elections after this.
Ehm. Yeah? The point was that he can indeed behave offensively weird in relation to NATO.
Yeah. But "That's just Trump being Trump." But while NATO holds together, it would be a stretch too far for Trump to be seen to be aligned with Russia rather than NATO. The rest of NATO has basically made clear that UKR sovereignty is important, and this prevents Trump backing Putin "for peace".
Yes. This is why he will not declare war on Ukraine, as per the historic Molotov Ribbentrop deal. Backing away from any direct support to Ukraine and easing sanctions, though. He will obfuscate and squiggle as much as he can to help 🇷🇺 . I think he wrongly thinks they’re useful against 🇨🇳.
That MAGA (R) some how think they can peel off RU to orientate v CN at the expense of EUr, NATO and thus, UA is the underlying fundamental strategic error in WH thinking. Imagine it has been cooked up simply to articulate and cover Trumpski's bromance for VVP. Whatever, it won't go anywhere sound.
Agreed. This is the only explanation I have been able to construct with what little evidence is there in terms of actual action. It will come to naught of course since the US are very much inferior to the Russians and Chinese when it comes to these games.
On the basis of what I've seen, there's nobody in the regime who's capable of grand strategy. Everything is secondary goals leading primary by the nose.
I think Putin just has a hold over him.
I don´t really care. The only thing that is interesting is what the US (and everyone else for that matter) does. Not what they say. The US are full of hot air. And its not just Trump. If the US suddenly decides to play in the blue team again instead of their own weird soap, I will reconsider.
EU defence industry is now disentangling itself from the US. These things take time. Starmer and the F-35 now exposed as stupidity.
Indeed. The UK should have ordered more Eurofighters, which it builds.
Yes that is a bit of ”Airstrip 1” thinking right there.
Starmer's doubling down on F-35s is simply incomprehensible.
Long term projects. The USS allowed UK top access during development of the F-35. The UK builds 15% of each and every F-35. The UK also builds the Eurofighter. The UK, far from being stupid, is currently building a next generation fighter with Japan and Italy.
Very clever indeed. Let’s just hope nothing happens to the F35s while waiting on that other new fighter.
What do you think is going to happen to the F-35s?
Interesting ottawacitizen.com/public-servi... We don't still know what the Swiss have planned?
Why wait. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JA... The stealth capabilities F-35 are overrated, according to the Chinese! And the future of the piloted fighter is a swarm of robotic wing-buddies. Which IMHO can be retrofitted to any modern fighter.
The Gripen, Rafaele & Eurofighter - three expensive to design planes that, although slightly different, serve a similar purpose. This is Europe’s expensive problem of duplication. Two next gen fighters… -UK, Italy & Japan -France, Germany & Spain
Exports...
The Chinese are unlikely to ever say anything else. Why would they?
Perhaps American overconfidence in their own impunity. One is reminded of the U2 programme until Gary Powers...
Starmer is linking 2nd tier nuclear defence w. F-35! What goes around comes around! "The UK had decided to base its entire 1960s deterrent force on Skybolt, and its cancellation led to a major disagreement between the UK and US, known today as the "Skybolt Crisis". en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAM-87_...
I’m not sure what you mean by ‘what goes around comes around’ ?! We’re expanding our nuclear capability to the air, rather than merely using subs. We’ve had US trident for years. The F-35 was, in part, designed in collaboration with the UK. - Long term projects that will out-live Trump.
Trident has not proven reliable recently www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-6835... And unless we know, we can nuke Washington DC. It's not really independent. The French OTOH...
I’d say we’re more open about our failures than say, the Russians or Chinese. Fact is, all nations have failures like this. It’s normal. It is an ageing system though, hence the move to airborne nukes.
The reference is to an air launched nuclear rocket proposal that ended in tears...
Ahh, I see.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... US made bombs... A domestically or EU fighter with EU nukes is credible in a post America First world.
A better phrase would be “they’ve humored him.” When exactly does his daily sundowning begin and what meds is he on for that?
It would be a great relief if he would just pull out the US from NATO. We would accelerate our domestic defense industry much quicker. The US should not receive a dime.
"Friendship with Saruman is not lightly thrown aside."
because the orange diaper wearing genius thinks that he looks like a badass with his girly fingers on the launch codes. 😖
One of his flunkies lost his head completely against me. I've a background in loss prevention inventories analysis in retail I'm a civilian against a supposed special forces inventories weapons guy. That was doomed to me being dubbed as a dry hole along with how I knew certain names.
IOW, bullies comply when outnumbered.
Not to mention the pedoph1le activity. Looking forward to the Epstien files
It's a valid point and any agreement would clearly be met with cautious optimism and hope rather than certainty and a firm expectation that the obligations will be adhered to. However it's better than nothing and also potentially anchors future US administrations.
The EU leaders have no faith in Trump at all, but this a formalising exercise and when it crumbles the world will be left in no doubt who the bad faith actors were. Putin AND Trump.
The only paper with Putin's name on it that would guarantee any level of peace will be his death certificate. Probably one of the most looked forward to obituaries in recent history.
I can think of another that competes for that honor.
That one would just help peace at home.
Won’t workbut it looks good. Angling for the Nobel prize. Thinks whatever he and Vlad talked about is going to work. Methinks…no.
It’s fine. I doubt anyone actually even takes a single word #dearleader says seriously. IMO the lesson is to imagine the worst possible outcome & then expect it to be even worse than that.
Exactly.
Also last time they didn't work either.
And even if he said any of those things they would not be true because he is a liar through and through.
The only major global leader you should believe less than Tru is Pu.
Exactly!!!
Putin made a big fool out of Donald Trump, and he's trying to strut around like he's a know-it-all and big man winner! 😠
It's what he always does after a humiliation. We're sick of it.
Donald Trump is the worst person to ever be in the Oval Office! It's just scary what could be going on!! 😲
Agree.
I’m glad you listen. You are absolutely right. He is a cunning dictator intent on taking Ukraine and nothing less. Trump has no right to discuss giving Putin any territory from Ukraine.
Both premature & delusional: Putin can’t feed his peasants without Ukraine grain: even boy-raping Putin knows what happens to Russian despots who can’t feed the peasants…Putin needs this war & needs what his broken state can’t do for itself: grow food…sad
Ukraine needs to join NATO.
Neither has he ever said the opposite
Absolutely. And keeping Crimea, an outrageous ask of the Ukrainians in itself, is much *less* than Putin has demanded.
Don't entirely agree. It would be good to have comprehensive security guarantees drawn up now as it would define the current unjust behaviour of Russia. It would also present the possibility to execute them retrospectively.
Made same security guarantees in the 90’s look how well that turned out
This exactly. Cart well before the horse at this point
This should be clear to everyone. I think all these discussions are just for Trump's "benefit" so that he (as the only one) thinks progress is being made, and will be very disappointed with Putin when Putin turns the new proposals down. None of the other leaders can actually think this will work.
AMEN TO THAT!!!
Ex KGB wants war. Totally out classes the “Master Deal Maker” who’s true abilities (or lack thereof) show clearly.
Even if he did say it why would we believe him. same with trump.