Right now the polling average for the midterms is D+3; if that holds, Dems would take the house almost regardless of gerrymandering. But if it gets *worse*? At D+6, suddenly seats in OH, IA, TX are in play (and Collins in ME is toast, NC long gone). At D+8, you've probably got the senate.
D+8 or D+9 is a huge reach - not likely currently - but we've just seen special elections come up D+20 and now Ernst - in an R+6 seat as an incumbant! - just bailed out. And she didn't buck Trump, so it wasn't a MAGA primary fear - and if IA is in play, so is TX and OH.
My point being if your opponent is acting like they're vulnerable, it might not be 3-D chess, but because they are, in fact, vulnerable. And if they're acting vulnerable while assuring you they are unstoppable, it is because they are vulnerable - and they think that election is happening.
They know it's going to be awfully difficult to pull off "Dems stole the election" if they are losing deep red House seats and the Texas Senate seat. At some point, even delusional people require credibility to keep up the facade of belief.
The base will buy it even more if those seats flip.
Oh yes, the "deeply stupid person has been playing 3d chess all the time because if they weren't it would should up the media class for the shit urgs they are" thing is in its now 11th year in a row.
My hot take is I think KS might be in play if we have an environment as blue or bluer than 2018 (8-10) Imagining the psychic damage the GOP would endure if they lost KS, TX, AK, and IA in one night. Would probably change their behavior a bit
Iowa is only R+6? Damn feels like a lot more
The election is in 14 months. Things are going to start to bake in about 9 months. I know that seems like eternity but it’s a blink of an eye. If things don’t start to get much better, fast, they are fucked. And they know it. A real opposition party would start stepping on their necks. Hard.
D+8 would require a catalyst, like an economic catastrophe. Little sign of any such thing. AI bubble popping likely leads to a regular recession. Tariff inflation is bad/stupid/illegal but is about 1% GDP. Firing the Fed boars will probably get shrugged off. No debt ceiling risk near term.
A 'regular recession' could, I think, be very damaging to Trump, because so much of his brand is 'he's good at business' and with the combination of the trade policy, tax bill, federal firings and deportations, he basically owns any outcome, no matter the immediate source.
But I think the other complicating factor here is Trump's own inability in crisis response, which we saw in 2020. Not hard to see a pretty rapid cycle of economic downturn or botched disaster response leading to protests which he cracks down on leading to substantial backlash.
Yeah maybe I am thinking about it too literally. The economy is so big and diverse, and companies are doing so well, I don’t see the economy deteriorating in the next few quarters to recession levels. But a trump crisis-> economic pain, that really punctures his image. Say, a crisis in Taiwan.
Economic catastrophe seems much more like after a midterm loss, as trump lashes out. Just my view of course.
I disagree with "almost regardless of gerrymandering." Gerrymandering can make it much much *worse* for Republicans. The whole idea of a gerrymander is to make the races you win closer than the races you lose. If you get too greedy and the race swings too far, it can be a bloodbath.